Your idea/view/opinion on JPY vs USD

[RahmanSL]

Latest report from FXStreet on USD/JPY:

“The pair is trading higher today at 116.29 levels, with the daily RSI overbought at 81.74 levels.”
“The price action in the current week suggests that USD bulls may have reached exhaustion since the pair has repeatedly failed to close above 116.00 levels. Thus, a sharp Sell-off towards 114.90 levels can be anticipated today if the pair once again fails to capitalize on the gains above 116.00 levels.”
“However, a further leg upwards towards 117.00 levels cannot be ruled out if the pair sustains above the previous cyclical high of 116.12 levels.”

I share above sentiment which suit my trades perfectly ...so I will be keeping my fingers (and a toe or two) crossed in great expectation

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello RahmanSL

I think the JPY/USD will probably attempt to go down to the 114 levels....

Looks like the only way to fully judge this pair by naked eye, is the "Weekly" chart:

My guess at upper and lower (Resistance & Support) levels look out of reach for awhile, so I added two new inner lines close to what I believe to be possible (Resistance & Support) levels (118.00 - 111.40).

You might just have a case for "Support" around 114.00 but hard to spot any around 117.00

Good luck
Liz

 

[RahmanSL]

Hi Liz....thank you for your input

Well, the Japanese Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) caught most analyst & traders by surprise by coming out worst than expected which briefly spiked the USD/JPY to the 118.6 levels. Unfortunately I was not at my computer at that time to capitalize on the spike, but that level did helped closed out some of my weaker "long" positions in some profits.

Well, now market is waiting for confirmation from Abe (on his return trip from the G20 meeting) on deferment of second GST and announcement of snap election on Dec 14 (I think)....and Japan is officially in recession.
So, what will that do to the Japanese Yen against the USD??.....Frankly I am not sure, but my trading plan is to cautiously trade the pair both ways.

Take care and all the best!

 

[RahmanSL]

...mini-maini-moe....how far will the USD/JPY go?

Some Analyst have posted "strong bullish momentum" for the pair, but I don't share tht view.

Anybody??

 

[RahmanSL]

Anybody got a crystal ball (chicken bones & tea leaves are also acceptable) focused on USD/JPY?

My takes are:

1) If Japan GST deferred: Good for Yen
2) If Abe announced snap election: Not so good for Yen
3) If Japan raise interest rate: Fantastic for Yen (but not likely)
4) If Fed talk of impending interest rake hike: Terrible for Yen
5a) Key US data coming out better than expected: Not good for Yen
5b) Key US data coming out worst than expected: Will help Yen

For today, and most probably for the week, I will scalp trade cautiously....weary & sensitive of & for any unexpected news from Japan & the US....with Bloomberg & CNBC news running full time.

 

[RahmanSL]

Alright, so there we have it!

GST delayed for 18 months, and Japanese parliament to be dissolved within a week.

First USD/JPY shot down with confirmation of delayed GST, and then shot up to the 116.9 levels with snap election confirmation.......and then, after with some reassurances from Abe that they will do all he can to improve the economy, the currency pair started tracking downwards.

Million pips question is: How far will USD/JPY go down?............Any soothsayers in the house to make the prediction??...hehehe...I will even take technical prediction

 

[RahmanSL]

USD/JPY was at 117.4 level and, pending other important news from the BOJ in just over an hour, it will find a direction for the rest of the week.

Interesting comment from an ex-deputy finance minister on Bloomberg saying that the BOJ should intervene at the 114-117 levels.
===============

Economist & Analyst keep saying Abe has one more arrow to use. ....hmmm...perhaps the US should consider freighting a few quivers of American Natives arrows for Abe to use to shoot down the Japanese recession

 

[RahmanSL]

All things considered, if FOMC minutes contain dovish undertones (as expected by some commentators that the US might do to help out their Japanese partners), then we might see Yen, in the very short term, down at the 114.8 levels.

Now I wonder how high the US Building Permits (MoM) will temporarily drive the USD/JPY when it comes out better than expected!!!!......OR if we get a below expectation, that would probably drive the USD/JPY, very temporarily, down to the lower 116 or upper 115 levels where the bulls will have a field day locking in some more long positions.

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello RahmanSL

For nearly two years now Abe has been trying to turn things around with his "three arrows" approach, which is great news for the Tokyo stock market but it has sent the value of the yen downward.

Net result: Japanese exporters have benefited from the weak currency while consumers have stopped spending on imports, with Tokyo stocks moving higher after the government delayed a planned sales tax hike and Japan tipped back into recession, the future looks bleak for the yen at the moment.

Let's see what the US data brings later.

Good luck
Liz

 

[RahmanSL]

Hi Liz....yup, agreed with your post regarding bleak outlook for the Yen.

I read somewhere by a commentator that Japan should not be in a recession coz many of their conglomerate companies made healthy profits (thanks to a part in weaker Yen) and many more smaller businesses in Japan are doing well too which shows good domestic consumptions.

With snap election now being called, Abe and the BOJ will have to do something (possibly intervene) if the Yen go beyond the 118 levels heading towards 120....this is especially since Abe called the snap election for a fresh mandate from the people.
If Abe doesn't or is not seen to contain run-away Yen weakness in some ways,the Opposition parties will have a field day on campaign days harping on this issue which obviously hurts Japanese voter's pockets.
Additionally, Japan being the 3rd (some said 4th) biggest economy, a weak Yen will most definitely have an impact on other world economies.

Well, all things will come to pass and we shall see......