Your idea/view/opinion on JPY vs USD

[RahmanSL]

As reported by FXStreet, Tue, Dec 23 2014, 04:36 GMT:

“Dollar-Yen has been steadily drifting up and now above 120. Our expectations of range bound moves below 120 have been proven incorrect. Though this rally, on low volumes, remains a suspect 120.50 is the next resistance to reckon with. 119.00 is a good support in short term. Japan has a holiday today (Emperor's birthday) and the trading is likely to be much muted.”

Might be "short" scalping opportunities on high sides.

 

[RahmanSL]

Yesterday 23-Dec-2014, due to better than expected US Q3 GDP numbers, dollar strengthened and USD/JPY hit 120.83 .... but, due to active profits taking, retreated back down to 120.28-29 levels.

One key data from the US today, 24-Dec-2014, "Continuing Jobless Claims" released by the US Department of Labor, might jolt the USD/JPY into some reaction due to either better or lower than expected figures.

On X'mas day, the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes might provide some movements for the pair....or not!

Japan's National Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) is scheduled to be released on 26-Dec-2016......CPI, being the most significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends, is dragged down by weaker Yen and I personally expect to see a lower figure due mainly to lesser purchasing power. With thin holidays market, there might not be much movements....BUT then again, market might give some surprises.

Whatever it is, the Yen is still under pressure and USD/JPY is expected to move to 121 and, perhaps, eventually to the anticipated 122 levels.
I will continue to take some longs on the dip and see what happens in the days to come.

Patience is the key word here and rewards come to those who wait : )

Merry X'mas & a Happy & pips-filled New Year to all.
====================================================

This just came in as reported by RTT NEWS:

12/24/2014 12:47 AM ET

Confidence among Japan's small and medium-sized enterprises decreased in December, survey data released by the Shoko Chukin Bank showed Wednesday.
The small business confidence declined to 46.7 in December from 47.7 in November.

Similarly, confidence in the manufacturing sector fell to 46.1 in December from 47.4 in November. The non-manufacturing confidence index decreased to 47.2 from 47.8 in the previous month.

"The decline in small business confidence to a seven-month low in December underlines that economic momentum in Japan remains sluggish, " Marcel Thieliant, a Japan economist at Capital Economics, said.

"In contrast to the flash manufacturing PMI, which indicates that the sector is in recovery, the current level of small business confidence is consistent with falling industrial production. What's more, the outlook is not particularly upbeat, either: the forecast for January stands at 47.3, "

by RTT Staff Writer

 

[RahmanSL]

Large gap down on USD/JPY on Friday......a host of data from Japan but not very much excitements.

I have stocked-up on some more USD/JPY longs on the dip and see what happens next week which should be an interesting week as the year drains out to the new year.

 

[RahmanSL]

USD/JPY large gap down on Friday closed........ but currencies pair dropped back down just before market closes for the week.

Next week no data coming out from Japan..... so currencies pair movements will largely depend on US data which are expected to be as or above expectation.....lets see what happens on Monday as it can be an interesting last trading week of the year........

 

[RahmanSL]

Normal year end holidays mean thinner market.......but two key US data releases for remainder of 2014 might help move the USD/JPY......i.e today, 30-Dec-'14 Consumer Confidence: Prv: 88.70 Exp: 93.00 and tomorrow 31-Dec-'14 Initial Jobless Claims: Prv: 280.00k Exp: 290.00k

My personal opinion is that Consumer Confidence will probably be or slightly above as expected 93.00.......but on Initial Jobless Claims, due to pre & after X'mas & New Years sales, more temporary jobs translate to previous or slightly lower Initial Jobless Claims figure and, as such, will move the USD/JPY higher.

FXStreet Fibonacci analysis report read:
The fact that we’re repeatedly been capped by the 78.6% Fibo resistance is supportive to the view that we probably will be creating a wave four triangle. As such the market should soon turn the corner for a setback ideally targeting the 78.6% Fibo support point (of the latest rise) at 116.68 before turning higher.

FXStreet USD/JPY Technical Levels

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 120.83 (Dec 23 High) levels and above which it could extend gains above 121 levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 120.18 (Dec 8 Low), below that at 119.29 (Dec 22 Low) levels.


I notice that market becomes jittery & uneasy whenever USD/JPY falls to the lower 120 & mid 119 levels and almost quickly retrace back up. This suggest general consensus that the new year will see weaker Yen against the USD has a lot of merit and as expected due to continued Abenomics in motion.

As such, I will continue to take some more long positions in anticipation of the ride up to the upper 121 and, perhaps, to the 122 levels. I will, however, close out some weaker long positions as they go into some profit but will leave the stronger positions for the ride up.

 

[RahmanSL]

For those trading USD/JPY, this should be interesting from FXStreet, today Tue, Dec 30 2014, 08:30 GMT:

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team notes SEB feels that USD/JPY minor double top is confirmed after the current break below 120.01 levels, anticipating a drop towards 116.68 levels.

Key Quotes

“The pair continues to be capped by the 78.6% Fibo resistance and after today’s rejection we are possible developing a minor double top. Such an event would suit our triangle scenario very well calling for a drop to ideally 116.68. A minor double top is confirmed on current breaking below 120.01.”

This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.

 

[RahmanSL]

Well, I am very sure end of 2014 left us plenty to reflect in trading the volatile forex market and all of us were either positively or negatively affected by the hugely unexpected drop in world oil crude price.

The Yen has been influenced hugely by it being seen as a "safe haven currency" in time of world economic trouble, but recent positive gain in the Nikkei has drove investors away from the Yen.

The Yen has been moving like a yo-yo and, today Friday, will possibly once again be affected by monthly NFP report.

I have listen & read a numbers of commentaries, including from FXStreet, which I think has the best guideline in trading the NFP:

As presented by FXStreet report:
Three possible scenarios for this month’s NFP report, along with the likely market reaction, are shown below:

NFP Jobs Created Likely USD Reaction Likely Equity Reaction

<180k BEARISH SLIGHTLY BEARISH

180k-300k SLIGHTLY BEARISH NEAUTRAL

>300k BULLISH SLIGHTLY BULLISH

Historically, USD/JPY has one of the most reliable reactions to payrolls data, so traders with a strong bias on the outcome of the report may want to consider trading that pair.

Trade safely!

 

[RahmanSL]

Looking, reading, and listening to various forecast by economist/commentaries, my take on the NFP figure for Friday is 288k

Last Nov 2014 figure was 321k......Dec 2015 Consensus forecast: 231k, 240k, and other figures...........FXStreet Matt's forecast is: 213k and Neal's forecast is: 186k