2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

[SOLID ECN LLC]

AUD/USD Tests Immediate Support​

Solid ECN—The AUD/USD currency pair traded at $0.664 in today's trading session. As of this writing, it is testing immediate support at $0.663. The technical indicators in the 4-hour chart suggest the currency pair is trading sideways, and the market lacks significant momentum.

From a technical perspective, if the AUD/USD bulls maintain their position above the immediate support at $0.663, the price will likely aim for the key resistance level at $0.668. The next bullish target should be $0.671 if the buying pressure exceeds this.

Conversely, if the bears push the price below the $0.663 support and stabilize it below it, the new bearish momentum will likely head to the next support at $0.659.​

 

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NZD/USD Tests Key Resistance at $0.616​

Solid ECN—The NZD/USD currency pair bounced from the $0.613 immediate support level, and as of this writing, it is testing the broken ascending trendline, the key resistance level at $0.616.

The technical indicators suggest a sideways market with a mild bullish trend.​

• The RSI is above the median line with a value of 60. The indicator is not overbought, meaning it can hold the uptick momentum around the key resistance and aim for a breakout.​
• The Awesome Oscillator is bearish with red bars, but they are above the zero line, indicating that the bullish momentum might lose its strength.​

From a technical standpoint, the key resistance level that paused the primary trend is $0.616. The NZD/USD price must close and stabilize above this level for the uptrend to resume. If this scenario comes into play, the next bullish target should be set at the $0.621 mark.​

Bearish Scenario​

Conversely, if the bulls fail to cross the key resistance, the currency pair's price will likely decline again, aiming for immediate support at $0.613. If the selling pressure increases, the next target will be $0.6086.​

 

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USD/CNH Symmetrical Triangle: Key Levels​

Solid ECN—The USD/CNH currency pair traded at about $7.25 in today's trading session. The currency pair has been moving sideways inside the symmetrical triangle, approaching the apex in the last three trading sessions. As of writing, the bears are testing the ascending trendline, a level supported by the Ichimoku cloud.

Moreover, the technical indicators signal that bearish momentum should escalate. Therefore, from a technical standpoint, if the USD/CNH slips below $7.255, the next resistance level should be set at $7.247. The Ichimoku cloud supports this demand area; therefore, the market might bounce from it.

Additionally, traders and investors should monitor the price action around the symmetrical triangle. If the selling pressure exceeds the critical support level at $7.245, the next bearish target will be $7.236.

On the flip side, the primary trend is bullish, and for it to resume, bulls must close above the immediate resistance at $7.26. If this scenario comes into play, the next bullish target should be set at the May all-time high of $7.275.​

 

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USD/JPY: Price Tests Ascending Trendline​

Solid ECN—The USD/JPY currency pair has declined from $157.7 and is testing the ascending trendline at $154.7. This demand area is in conjunction with the Ichimoku cloud and the April 9 high.

The technical indicators signify a bearish profile.​

• The RSI value is 45, below 50, and declining.​
• The Awesome Oscillator value is 1.04, hovering above the signal line but declining.​

From a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish. For the uptrend to resume, the bulls must maintain the price above the ascending trendline and the immediate support of $154.7. If this scenario unfolds, the USD/JPY will likely surge to retest the key resistance level at $157.7.

On the flip side, if the bears close the USD/JPY price below the ascending trendline and the immediate support, the next bearish target will likely be $151.9.​

 

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USD/CHF Downtrend: Key Levels to Watch​

The USD/CHF downtrend gained momentum after breaking below the key resistance level at $0.90. As a result, the candles moved outside the lower Bollinger Band, indicating the market is oversold and may bounce back.​

• The RSI is near the oversold area, showing a value of 31. This suggests a consolidation phase could be imminent.​

From a technical perspective, traders and investors should avoid selling when the market is oversold. Instead, they should wait for the currency pair to consolidate near the upper key resistance at $0.90 and watch for bearish candlestick patterns. The downtrend will likely continue if such patterns appear, targeting $0.889 next.
​

Bullish Scenario​

Conversely, the bearish outlook will be invalidated if USD/CHF stabilizes above the key resistance level of $0.90. The middle Bollinger Band will be the initial bullish target in this scenario, followed by resistance at $0.915.
​

Key Takeaways:​

• USD/CHF is currently oversold and may bounce.​
• RSI value is at 31, indicating a possible consolidation.​
• Wait for consolidation near $0.90 before making moves.​
• If the price stays above $0.90, look for targets at the middle Bollinger Band and $0.915.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

USD/CNH Tests the Ichimoku Cloud with Bearish Outlook​

The USD/CNH currency pair broke below the ascending trendline and the 7.24 immediate support. As of writing, the currency pair trades at about 7.246, testing the Ichimoku cloud. The technical indicators signal a bearish trend resumption. The RSI (14) is below the median line, reading 39. The Awesome oscillator is below the signal line, with red bars and decreasing values.

From a technical perspective, the descending trendline is the critical resistance to the downtrend. If the USD/CNH price hovers below the trendline, the next bearish target could be 7.236.

Conversely, the bearish outlook should be invalidated if the price crosses the descending trendline. If this scenario unfolds, the 7.275 ceiling will be retested.​

 

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[SOLID ECN LLC]

Gold Prices Surge Amid Speculation of Fed Rate Cuts​

Solid ECN—Gold prices climbed to $2,370 per ounce on Thursday, continuing the upward trend from the previous day. This increase came after U.S. economic reports suggested that the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates later this year.

Data from ADP revealed that U.S. private job growth in May was weaker than expected, and figures for the previous month were also adjusted downwards. This points to a slowing, yet still robust, job market.

Consequently, market players expect the Fed to implement two rate cuts this year, with a 70% probability of one occurring in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors now look forward to Friday's non-farm payroll figures to further evaluate the U.S. economy and gain insights into the Fed's rate cut plans.

In related news, the Bank of Canada reduced its primary interest rate on Wednesday, marking its first cut in four years, and the European Central Bank is likely to decrease rates later today.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

Navigating the Recent Silver Price Drop​

Solid ECN—Silver prices dropped below $30 per ounce after hitting an 11-year peak of $32 on May 28th. This decline comes as investors weigh major central banks' future interest rate policies and the demand for silver from key industrial users. In response to China's extensive use of silver in solar cell manufacturing, the US has implemented a 50% tariff on these imports.

This move aims to curb demand for panels made primarily in China and other Southeast Asian countries. Despite these tariffs, robust demand within China has helped prevent a more significant price drop. This resilience is highlighted by the recent activation of Xinjiang's world's largest solar farm.

Additionally, the expectation that central banks, including the ECB and BoC, will soon reduce interest rates has helped limit the fall in silver prices, as lower rates decrease the cost of holding non-income-generating assets like silver.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

Gold Declines Amid Overbought Stochastic Oscillator​

Solid ECN—The XAU/USD declined after the bulls broke from the 50% Fibonacci level in today's trading session. This development in the gold price has driven the stochastic oscillator into the overbought area. Therefore, the current phase should be considered as consolidation.

The primary trend is bullish, and the technical indicators point to the bullish wave resuming. However, for the uptrend to continue, the price must stabilize above the SMA 100 (blue line). If this scenario comes into play, the 38.2% Fibonacci level will be the next target.

Conversely, the oversold stochastic might escalate today's decline from $2,370. The immediate support is at $2,354. If this level is breached by the bears, the next bearish target will be the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which is backed by SMA 50 (red).​