Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/CHF: buy targets - 1.5600 and 1.5800
19 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/CHF reached buy target 1.5400
• Next buy targets - 1.5600 and 1.5800

GBP/CHF has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the pivotal resistance level 1.5400 (which reversed previous primary impulse wave ① and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level greatly accelerated the active impulse wave (3) – which belongs to the primary impulse wave ③ from the start of October.

GBP/CHF is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves (3) and ③ in the direction of the next buy target 1.5600 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.5800.

More:
fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7119

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 20

By Kira Iukhtenko



US Dollar retraced lower on Thursday on the back of the “less-hawkish-than-expected” policy meeting minutes. Generally, the document still remains quite hawkish and leaves the door open for a rate hike in December. Beware the Fed's members' comments on Friday and Saturday, though: they could be disappointing for the greenback. This is the only thing to watch in the US calenar till the end of the week.

EUR/USD attempted to rally above 1.0700, but erased gains quickly. Listen to the ECB President Mario Draghi on Friday – he'll deliver a speech at the Euro Finance week in Frankfurt. The ECB minutes on Thursday turned out to be rather dovish, but the market underestimated the tone, in my view: increased deflationary pressures and potential for a policy change were discussed. We target the 1.0500 mark in the near term. Resistance for the pair lies at 1.0800/30.

GBP/USD volatility remains very high. The cable approached the 1&5300 mark on Thursday. A break higher could open the way to 1.5500 once again, but we don't expect this bullish move to be long-lived.

USD/JPY retraced lower from the local high at 123.70. However, a bullish channel with a key support at 122.50 still remains in play. We are ready to buy from these levels. Watch the monthly BOJ report on Friday.

Friday is an intense day for USD/CAD: watch the October retail sales and CPI in Canada. The pair is testing the trend support as we write, but the major level below is 1.3220. We don't expect the decline to be long – the oil market is testing new lows these days.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7123

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/JPY: sell target - 130.00
20 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/JPY reversed from resistance level 132.00
• Next sell target - 130.00

EUR/JPY continues to fall after the recent sharp downward reversal from the pivotal resistance level 132.00 (former strong support level which has been reversing the price from the start of September, acting as resistance now after it was broken recently). The downward reversal from the resistance level 132.00 is likely to strengthen the bearish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions.

EUR/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse wave (iii) (which belongs to the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of June) toward the next sell target at the round support level 130.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7128

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/CAD: buy target - 0.9560
20 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/CAD broke resistance zone
• Next buy target - 0.9560

AUD/CAD continues to rise after the recent breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 0.9550 (which reversed earlier waves Aand (b)) and the resistance trendline of the wide daily down channel from January. The breakout of this resistance zone is likely to accelerate the active impulse wave (iii) – which is a part of the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the start of September.

AUD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active waves (iii), C and (4) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9560 (which reversed previous wave (iv) in August). Buy stop-loss can be placed below the recently broken price level 0.9550.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7129

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for Novemver 23-29

Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY remains supported by the US yields, which, in turn, are higher on the expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon tighten its policy. The large speculators once again increased their net short positions on Japanese currency.

However, the pair lacks bullish drivers from Japan. Last week the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged. The regulator maintained the assessment that Japanese economy continued to recover moderately. Governor Kuroda dismissed contraction of the nation’s GDP saying it was caused not by weaker demand but by inventory adjustments. As a result, the prospects of further easing from the Bank of Japan were pushed further into future. This is the big factor limiting the yen’s decline.

This week the most important events in Japanese economic calendar will be the Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes on Wednesday and the nation’s inflation data on Friday.

Trading will likely remain broadly consolidative. Resistance is at 123.80, 124.15 and 125.00. Support is at 122.50, 122.00 and 121.80. Watch news from the US – Fed’s announcement on Monday, American GDP and consumer confidence on Tuesday and durable goods on Wednesday. We will be looking for the opportunities to open small longs on the improving data from the United States.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7152

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for November 23-29

Elizabeth Belugina

Last week EUR/USD once again reversed to the downside sliding to 7-month lows just above 1.0600.

The focus remains on the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The ECB president Mario Draghi talked dovish on Friday, while the US central bank may take on Monday the first step towards the future increase of the Fed funds rate.

Fresh euro area’s November manufacturing & services PMIs released on Monday came out better than expected. Fundamentally though, traders continue to think that the region’s economy is weak and that the ECB will inject more euros into its financial system. During the other days of the week there will be some data releases of medium importance in the euro area.

Technically the bearish momentum has slowed down. Much of the upcoming increase in the ECB’s monetary stimulus is already priced in. The same is with the expected tightening of the Fed’s policy. Still, any recovery in the euro, if happens, will be short-lived. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net euro shorts have doubled since the middle of October, but although the number of shorts has become big, it remains below March maximum, so the possibility of further bearish pressure on the single currency is high. In fact, EUR/USD does not have many reasons to rise, so we remain the sellers.

Support is at 1.0600 ahead of 1.0520 and 1.0460. Resistance is at 1.0670, 1.0700 and 1.0800.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7151

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 24

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0766

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5170, TAKE PROFIT 1.5000, STOP LOSS 1.5235

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.00, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.19

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0310, STOP LOSS 1.0089

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7297, STOP LOSS 0.7130

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3557, STOP LOSS 1.3240

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 132.35

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7045

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0830, TAKE PROFIT 1.0950, STOP LOSS 1.0785

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4285

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6520, TAKE PROFIT 0.6699, STOP LOSS 0.6460

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7158

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
CHF/JPY: sell target - 120.00
24 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• CHF/JPY broke pivotal support level 121.30
• Next sell target - 120.00

CHF/JPY has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the pivotal support level 121.30 (which also previous stopped the sharp minor impulse wave 1, as you can see below). The breakout of this support level intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair – accelerating the active minor impulse wave 3 – which is a part of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from October.

CHF/JPY is expected is fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the round support level 120.00 (which reversed the previous sharp wave Ⓐ in March). Strong resistance remains at 121.30.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7163

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for November 25

Elizabeth Belugina

The Dollar Index (DXY) remains near the 8-month high in the 100.00 area, though American currency was undergoing a slight correction on Tuesday. The US released lower housing and manufacturing PMI data released on Monday, but on Tuesday American Q3 GDP was revised to the upside. Watch the publication of durable goods figures at 13:30 GMT on Wednesday. All in all, the greenback will likely trade rather moderately ahead of the bank holiday on Thursday (Thanksgiving Day).

EUR/USD formed a ‘hammer’ candle on Monday after testing 1.0600. The big figure allowed the pair to stabilize and consolidate a bit. There was also some fundamental help. The week started with rather positive figures from the euro area: the region’s manufacturing PMI released on Monday was the highest since April 2014, while European services PMI was at the maximum of 4 ½ years. On Tuesday German IFO business climate index has followed this bright suit with the reading of 109.0 (highest since June 2014). However, although some analysts have started to question whether the European Central Bank now needs to increase stimulus in De cember, the consensus is that it will. As a result, the market players are cautious with the euro longs at this point. Resistance is at 1.0670, 1.0700 and 1.0760. Support is at 1.0600 and 1.0520. Nothing very important in the euro zone’s economic calendar on Wednesday.

GBP/USD slid below Tuesday opening levels on comments from the Bank of England’s Carney and Haldane. The policymakers outlined that negative risks for the British economy prevail and that the nation is expected to remain in low interest rate environment for some time. Decline below 1.5100 will open the way down to 1.5030/00 and 1.4975 (support line). Resistance is at 1.5155, 1.5200 and 1.5260. The UK Government will release Autumn forecast statement at 12:30 GMT.

USD/JPY corrected down to 122.40 on the market’s subdued risk sentiment. Support is at 122.22, 122.00 and 121.80. Resistance is at 123.25. The increase above 123.60 is unlikely, while the slide to 121.50 in the current environment is possible.

AUD/USD is consolidating around 0.7200. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens sounded optimistic about the nation’s economic outlook, though underlined that the central bank is ready to act if necessary. If Aussie manages to stay above 0.7200, it may be able to test 0.7250 and 0.7280 (September highs). However, it’s clear that Aussie doesn’t have grounds for a sustainable rally.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7166

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/AUD: sell target - 2.0600
25 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/AUD broke pivotal support level 2.0860
• Next sell target - 2.0600

GBP/AUD recently broke below the pivotal support level 2.0860 (which reversed previous waves (iv), (4) and (A), as you can see from the daily GBP/AUD chart below). The breakout of this support level follows the earlier breakout of the 50% Fibonacci Correction level of the previous upward impulse wave from the start of June. The breakout of these support levels is likely to accelerate the active intermediate corrective wave (C) (which belongs to the primary ABC correction ② from August).

GBP/AUD is expected to fall further in the active (C)-wave toward the next sell target at the next support level 2.0600 (which reversed the pair earlier in July).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7172