Tifia Forex Broker Daily Market Analytics, Analytics and trading recommendations by Tifia Company

[Tifia FX]

S&P500: indexes continue to update highs

12/01/2018

Current dynamics

While the dollar continues to scale down, the rally in the US stock market continues. On Friday, the main US indices reached new record highs, having successfully started in 2018.

Against the backdrop of the continued confidence of investors that companies will report again on the strong profit growth for the last quarter of 2017, the American stock market continues its rapid growth, which began in January 2016.

According to FactSet, the profits of companies from the S & P500 in the fourth quarter increased by about 11%. JPMorgan Chase & amp; Co. and Wells Fargo & amp; Co., part of the financial sector S & P500, today the first of the leading US banks will report on quarterly results. Economists expect profit growth.

Investors also continue to assess the impact of the recently adopted tax bill on the US economy.

Today, investors will follow the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of US consumer inflation data. According to the forecast, retail sales in the US are expected to grow by 0.5% in December (+ 0.8%, according to the previous release, and + 0.2% in November), CPI grew by 2.1% (in annual terms).

Nevertheless, signs of a sharp increase in inflation are still few. So, the US producer price index (PPI) for December, published on Thursday, decreased by 0.1%.

The threat that the current state of inflation may become a catalyst for the reversal of the bullish trend in the stock market is not yet relevant.

The Fed said about 3 rate increases in 2018. Nevertheless, the Fed may slow the rate of rate hikes if inflation continues to be weak and macroeconomic indicators will deteriorate. Soft monetary policy will contribute to the further growth of the US stock market. Thus, soft monetary policy, expectations of economic growth amid the new tax policy, and strong reporting by US companies continue to stimulate purchases of US stock assets.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2735.0, 2680.0, 2640.0, 2600.0, 2550.0, 2520.0

Resistance levels: 2775.0


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2730.0. Stop-Loss 2780.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2680.0, 2640.0, 2600.0, 2550.0, 2520.0

Buy Stop 2780.0 Stop-Loss 2730.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

AUD/USD: a day off in the US

15/01/2018

Current dynamics

Published on Friday, the macro data, pointed to the growth of inflation in the US. According to the US Ministry of Labor, CPI in December rose by 0.1% compared to the previous month, the base CPI index excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.3% (+1.8% in annual expression). Economists expect that by April, annual inflation will be above 2%. This is the most important fundamental factor, as the FRS relies on this basic CPI index when assessing the need for tightening monetary policy.

Janet Yellen, leaving the post of the head of the Federal Reserve on February, said earlier that the weakness of inflation observed last year is a temporary phenomenon. The growth of inflationary pressures against the backdrop of a stable labor market and positive macro statistics gives the Fed the opportunity to raise rates this year at least three times, as expected.

At the moment, the dollar is falling large.

The US dollar index DXY fell to its lowest level since December 2014. This was promoted, first of all, by the growth of the euro. Published on Thursday, the ECB's protocols showed that leaders at the beginning of this year can change the targets of leading indicators if economic growth remains strong. Expectations of tightening monetary policy outside the United States, especially in the Eurozone, contributed to the weakening of the dollar and the growth of the euro.

The euro in the basket of 6 currencies in the dollar index DXY takes about 57%, and its growth contributes to an active decline in the dollar.

However, investors probably can underestimate the Fed's determination to raise interest rates.

In addition, the tax reform and the consistently low unemployment rate in the US (about 4.1%) create the preconditions for accelerating the growth of wages, and this is also a factor that accelerates consumer inflation. There is a high probability that in the current year rates can be raised not three, but four times.

There may be a situation where investors, skeptical about inflation and raising rates in the US, will be taken by surprise when the Fed starts raising rates quarterly, and the bearish trend of the dollar against this background will suddenly be broken.

In conditions of an increase in the interest rate, the investment attractiveness of the dollar will grow.

Meanwhile, this week investors will focus on the publication of inflation indicators in Germany and the UK (Tuesday), the Eurozone (Wednesday), China's GDP (Thursday), the Bank of Canada decision on the interest rate (Wednesday), the publication of the Beige Book Fed (Wednesday) and data from the Australian labor market (Thursday 00:30 GMT).

Economists expect that data on employment in Australia for December will be weak. Unemployment will remain at the same level of 5.4% and an excess of labor resources will remain.

It is likely that the RBA is unlikely to decide to change the current monetary policy in conditions of weak growth in the labor market and the purchasing power of the population. While the growth rate of wages in the country will not grow, the RBA will not go on raising the interest rate, despite the emerging trend towards an early tightening of monetary policies in other major world central banks.

The current growth in the AUD / USD pair is explained, first of all, by the weakening of the US dollar. If the ratio of investors to the US dollar starts to change for the better, then the bullish trend of the AUD / USD pair will not stand.

At the moment, the number of short speculative positions on the AUD / USD pair in the foreign exchange market is 90%.

Today in the US, a day off, US stock exchanges do not work, and against a background of a reduced volume of trades, large players can push the quotes of the AUD / USD pair even higher.

Well, tomorrow, with the opening of the Asian session, the situation may change in the opposite direction. It is necessary to be vigilant when building long positions in the AUD / USD pair.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7950, 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7795, 0.7710, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7500, 0.7460

Resistance levels: 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8160


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7925. Stop-Loss 0.7975. Take-Profit 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7795, 0.7710

Buy Stop 0.7975. Stop-Loss 0.7925. Take-Profit 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8160

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

NZD/USD: amid rising commodity prices

16/01/2018

Current dynamics

On the eve, the DXY dollar index has reached its minimum for more than three years near the 90.13 mark, and for the year of 2017 the index has decreased by almost 10%, which was the strongest annual decline since 2003. At the beginning of the European session, the DXY index is near the 90.50 mark.

After a many-day decline today for the first time there is a recovery in the US dollar.

In general, the negative attitude of investors to the US dollar remains. Expectations that soon the world's largest central banks will begin to wind down their stimulus programs for national economies and begin to raise interest rates, increase the attractiveness of major world currencies and reduce the attractiveness of the dollar.

After strong growth over a period of ten years, American stock markets are receding into the background, and the largest regional stock markets, such as the European and Japanese stock markets, are coming to the fore. And this increases the demand for the euro and yen, for which the national stock assets are acquired. In this sense, commodity currencies, such as Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are especially sensitive to the cost of primary commodities on the world market, also keep pace. The observed large-scale weakening of the US dollar contributes to higher commodity prices. This fully applies to oil and gas, metallic ores, as well as to agricultural products.

The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder.

In the last 203-th auction GDT (Global Dairy Trade), held on January 2, 2018, the price index for dairy products increased by 2.2%. Prices for powdered milk increased by 4.2%. The weighted average world price for dairy products was 3,124 USD / kg. And, although the prices are on average lower than the prices for the level of a year ago, there has recently been a slight increase in the price of dairy products. This, in particular, is contributed by the weakening of the US dollar, as commodity prices are mainly in US dollars.

The general elections in New Zealand that took place at the end of September, as a result of which the conservative government, which achieved significant growth in the New Zealand economy, resigned, led to the fall of the New Zealand dollar. The business-sentiment of producers in the agricultural sector, the leading industry in New Zealand's economy, is still at a low level, reflecting a negative reaction to the new government.

Nevertheless, the NZD / USD pair recovered completely after the fall against the background of the September elections in New Zealand. This was facilitated also by the weakening of the US dollar/

So far, the negative attitude of investors to the US dollar remains, and the positive dynamics of the pair NZD / USD still prevails.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of 2.2% (against the previous value of + 0.4%). If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7210, 0.7090, 0.7000, 0.6865, 0.6800

Resistance levels: 0.7310, 0.7430, 0.7550


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7255. Stop-Loss 0.7315. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7210, 0.7090

Buy Stop 0.7315. Stop-Loss 0.7225. Take-Profit 0.7430, 0.7550

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/CAD: probability of rate hike is high

17/01/2018

Current dynamics

Despite the fact that the probability of today's interest rate increase in Canada is high, the Canadian dollar declined during the Asian session, and the pair USD / CAD rose today to 1.2460. In December, the Bank of Canada kept its interest rate at 1.0% after doubling it during 2017. The head of the Bank of Canada Poloz said that when making decisions, the central bank will be guided by incoming economic data.

The current level of inflation in Canada is below the target level of 2.0%. Nevertheless, ignoring a strong labor market and rising oil prices, Canada's main export commodity, is unlikely to work either.

Most economists agree that today the Bank of Canada will raise the rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. It is likely that the Canadian dollar will strengthen on this event. However, further dynamics will depend on what the leaders of the Bank of Canada will say in the accompanying statement. If the Bank of Canada indicates that further increases will depend on the data, the upward momentum of the Canadian currency may soon weaken, while the USD / CAD pair will stop falling.

If the accompanying statement points out improvements in the economy and signals about plans for further tightening, the Canadian dollar will continue to rise. In general, today's rate increase is already taken into account in prices. Only signals about further tightening of monetary policy in Canada will cause a significant strengthening of the Canadian dollar.

The press conference of the Bank of Canada will begin at 16:15 (GMT), and the publication of the decision on the rate is scheduled for 15:00 (GMT).

Later (at 19:00) will be published economic review "Beige Book". The publication of this report by the Fed usually does not have a strong impact on markets. Nevertheless, this document will contain a look at the current state of the economy, from the point of view of leading economists, analysts, representatives of US business.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2620, 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2390. Stop-Loss 1.2470. Take-Profit 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Buy Stop 1.2470. Stop-Loss 1.2390. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2620, 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

NZD/USD: US dollar received support

18/01/2018

Current dynamics

Today, the dollar gained support and grew at the beginning of the Asian trading session. On Wednesday, Fed representatives, Robert Kaplan and Loretta Mester, spoke in favor of raising interest rates. They expect acceleration in the growth of the US economy and inflation. According to Robert Kaplan, inflationary pressures are "growing", and it will be better if the Fed starts raising rates "sooner rather than later".

Apple announced on Wednesday that it would repatriate most of the profits it received abroad. Under the new tax laws, US companies that make profits outside the US will be able to pay a one-time tax of 15.5% of the repatriated assets. Apple said that the company will pay a one-time tax of $ 38 billion as a result of the repatriation of its foreign cash. If other large American companies follow Apple's example, this will increase demand for the dollar.

Nevertheless, the negative mood of investors regarding the dollar is still preserved. The growth of the world economy outside the US will support the currencies of other countries where econic growth is expected, and will cause their strengthening against the dollar.

At 13:30 (GMT) macro data from the United States will be published. The publication of the report of the US Department of Labor about the change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the last week is expected, according to which the number of initial applications for unemployment fell to 250,000 (against 261,000 in the week before last). The result higher than expected will indicate the weakness of the labor market, which will negatively affect the US dollar. If the data is confirmed, it should positively affect the dollar. The consistently low level of applications for unemployment benefits is one of the signs of a strong labor market.

Also at this time will be published indicators of activity in the real estate market in the US in December, as well as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in January.

At 21:30 (GMT) index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) of New Zealand, assessing conditions in the business environment of the country, will be published. The production PMI is considered an important indicator of general economic conditions. In November, the PMI was 57.2. If the updated data for December will be better than November's value, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Yesterday, the NZD / USD upgraded the 2-month high near the 0.7330 mark and today again develops an upward move. So far, the negative attitude of investors to the US dollar remains, and the positive dynamics of the NZD / USD still prevails. The breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.7330 (January highs) will cause growth towards resistance levels of 0.7430 (September highs), 0.7550 Fibonacci level of 50%).

The signal to the resumption of sales of the NZD / USD will be a breakdown of the support level of 0.7240 (EMA200 on the weekly chart, EMA200 on the 1-hour chart and the bottom line of the upward channel on the 4-hour chart, and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).

The purpose of the downward correction is the most important support level 0.7090 (EMA200 on the daily and monthly charts, EMA50 on the weekly chart).

The breakdown of support levels 0.6865 (the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, here are the minimums of December 2016), 0.6800 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the global downtrend.

Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7090, 0.7000, 0.6865, 0.6800

Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7430, 0.7550


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7340. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7100

Buy Stop 0.7340. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7550

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: correction on the dollar

19/01/2018

Current dynamics

The House of Representatives of the US Congress extended government funding until February 16. This is the fourth resolution on the provisional financing of the federal government. The issue of the suspension of the US government for the time being removed from the agenda.

If the Senate and the House of Representatives can not agree on the procedure for financing the government, then state institutions will be closed, and their employees will go on temporary unpaid leave. So it was already in 2013 because of the budget crisis.

The dollar received a temporary respite. Nevertheless, investors are following developments. On the second half of the trading day, the economic calendar is empty, there is no important news.

Therefore, the dynamics of the dollar will, in the main, be determined by technical analysis.

And on most charts of dollar currency pairs, the dollar is oversold. In the middle of the European session, there is already a technical correction, and the dollar is growing against most of the competing currencies, including against the pound.

After today (09:30 GMT), the UK National Statistics Office presented updated data on retail sales for December, which were worse than the previous release and forecast, the pound fell in the foreign exchange market.

In December, according to the report, retail sales in the UK fell by 1.5% with a forecast of a decrease of 0.8%. Reduction of retail sales in December was the strongest since June 2016, when the referendum on withdrawal from the EU was held. It also became the sharpest for December in seven years. This is a bad sign for the pound and the British economy, focused mainly on the domestic market. In the fourth quarter of 2017, retail sales, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, failed to make almost no positive contribution to GDP growth.

Until now, the large-scale weakening of the US currency contributed to the active growth of the GBP / USD pair after the referendum on Brexit.

The negative attitude of investors to the dollar remains, despite the adoption of new tax laws in the US and the Fed's determination to further tighten monetary policy. Most likely, after the "working off" of the upward correction, the dollar will resume its decline. And for the pound, more important than today's publication on retail sales, will be the publication of data on the wages of the British, expected next week.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3800, 1.3735, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210

Resistance levels: 1.3900, 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4250


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3820. Stop-Loss 1.3910. Take-Profit 1.3800, 1.3735, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210

Buy Stop 1.3910. Stop-Loss 1.3820. Take-Profit 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4250

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: the pair gets double support today

22/01/2018

Current dynamics

Analyzing the consequences of the temporary cessation of the work of the US government, investors reacted with restraint to the news that on Sunday the senators did not agree on voting for the bill on financing the government for one month. Pause in the work of the US government is unlikely to become a threat to the global economy, however, the major US stock indices and the dollar are moderately declining on Monday.

Last week, the dollar index DXY reached a multi-month low near the mark of 90.15, and today DXY again decreases, being at the beginning of the European session near the 90.20 mark. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds grew on Monday to 2.651% from Friday's level of 2.639%, which was the maximum for the end of the session since July 2014. The dollar receives support from the growth of yield on US bonds, restrainedly declining in the foreign exchange market, even on an unfavorable domestic political background in the United States.

Meanwhile, as it became known from media reports, on Sunday the Social Democratic Party of Germany, which adheres to the center-left views, agreed to negotiations with the conservative bloc of Angela Merkel on the creation of a coalition. Thus, the domestic political situation in Germany, whose economy is leading in Europe and the Eurozone, has improved, and Merkel overcame a key obstacle in an attempt to form the government for the fourth time.

Thus, the EUR / USD is receiving double support today and is growing again at the beginning of the European session after the pair opened today's trading day with a gap up, reaching 1.2268.

The focus of investors who trade the euro will be the ECB meeting on monetary policy, which will be held on Thursday. Also this week is expected a large amount of macro data on the economy of the Eurozone. On Tuesday (10:00 GMT), the ZEW Research Institute will release a January report on business sentiment and expectations in Germany. On Wednesday, PMI (preliminary release) indices for the manufacturing and service sectors of France, Germany and the Eurozone will be published. On Thursday, the indices GfK and Ifo of the sentiment in the economy of Germany will be published. On the same day, at 12:45 (GMT), the ECB's interest rate decision will be published. It is expected that the current monetary policy of the ECB will remain unchanged, and ECB President Mario Draghi will favor the preservation of a soft monetary policy. The press conference of the ECB will begin on Thursday at 13:30 (GMT). On Friday, investors will be waiting for data on consumer confidence and business sentiment in France, as well as data on the euro money supply M3 and consumer lending (08:00 GMT). Thus, a very volatile trading week is expected.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD keeps positive dynamics, trading in the zone of multi-month highs, above the important support level of 1.2200, which corresponds to the Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680, 1.1630

Resistance levels: 1.2300, 1.2320, 1.2430, 1.2600


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2190. Stop-Loss 1.2290. Take-Profit 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680, 1.1630

Buy Stop 1.2290. Stop-Loss 1.2190. Take-Profit 1.2320, 1.2430, 1.2600

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged

23/01/2018

Current dynamics

As expected, the Bank of Japan left all three monetary policy goals unchanged during today's meeting. The report of the Bank of Japan said that expectations about the pace of economic growth and inflation remained the same, while in December the bank said that they are "in the phase of weakening". In the course of his speech, the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda stated that "we have not yet reached the point at which we should discuss the exit from monetary stimulus". The Japanese stock index Nikkei added 1.3% and for the first time since November 1991 closed above 24000 points, even despite the strengthening of the yen.

During the European session, the pair USD / JPY continued to decline. The dollar has only briefly received a breather by resolving a potential crisis with funding from the US government. As it became known, yesterday the Senators approved the bill on provisional financing of the government until February 8. Nevertheless, the restrained-negative attitude to the dollar on the part of investors remains, which is facilitated both by the internal political tensions in the US and by the expectations of a faster growth of the economy outside the United States, especially in countries with the world's largest economies.

At the beginning of today's European session, the DXY dollar index is near the 90.25 mark, while last week DXY reached a multi-month low near the 90.15 mark.

For today, important news on the US is not planned for publication. At 23:50 (GMT), the Ministry of Finance of Japan will publish a report with data on imports and exports, as well as the overall trade balance for December. The trade balance surplus and exports (+ 10%) of Japan are expected to increase, which will positively affect both the yen and the Japanese stock market.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 110.15, 109.50, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

Resistance levels: 111.10, 111.85, 112.70, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 111.30. Stop Loss 110.40. Take-Profit 111.85, 112.70, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40

Sell Stop 110.40. Stop Loss 111.30. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: Dollar expects further weakening

24/01/2018

Current dynamics

On Wednesday, the US dollar continued to decline. Concerns about US protectionist trade policies have come to the fore once after US President Trump threatened trade barriers to Chinese goods. After that, the media reported that China intends to start getting rid of US government bonds, which led to a sharp short-term drop in the dollar. So far, the US has not imposed additional duties on imports from China. Nevertheless, on Monday, the administration of the US president announced the introduction of duties on the import of cheap solar batteries and washing machines that are produced in other countries in Asia. And this, according to the American leadership, is only the first such step in the sphere of trade.

The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds is growing, rising to a 3-year high of 2.63%. However, this does not support the dollar, which is actively falling against the basket of other major currencies. So, during today's European session, the dollar index DXY reached a new multi-month low near the 89.50 mark, falling below the key level of 90.00.

It is likely that in the next few months we should wait for the continuation in the US of the policy of trade restrictions on imported goods, including from China. This should lead, theoretically, to reciprocal measures on the part of the PRC. The escalation of tensions between the US and Asian countries, primarily with China, against the backdrop of the protectionist trade policy of the White House will lead to an even weaker dollar. Moreover, a cheaper dollar is beneficial to the US economy. A strong national currency has a negative impact on the US economy, making US exports less affordable for overseas buyers. Trump has repeatedly stated that the US foreign trade deficit has reached an impressive $ 500 billion precisely for this reason.

On Monday, economists at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) reported that, according to their calculations, the US dollar is still overvalued by about 10%, despite the fact that last year the dollar has already decreased by 7% against a basket of 16 currencies tracked by Wall Street Journal. Thus, we should expect further weakening of the dollar.

Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 14:45 (GMT) of business activity indexes (PMI) in the services sector and manufacturing sector in the US for January. The publication of indicators with strong values is expected. If they exceed their expectations, the dollar may strengthen for a moment.

From the fundamental point of view, we should expect further weakening of the dollar.

Meanwhile, at 09:30 (GMT), data from the British labor market was published, indicating that the unemployment rate in November was 4.3%, which is the minimum for the past 40 years. The number of new jobs also reached a record high, while the number of unemployed fell to a minimum in more than 15 years. Such data was cited by the National Statistics Office of Great Britain.

However, higher demand for labor did not lead to an acceleration in the growth of wages of the British. The worsening of the financial situation of consumers after the referendum on Brexit, apparently, continues.

Nevertheless, the pound reacted with growth on the data presented. The GBP / USD pair updated the annual and multi-month high near the 1.4115 mark. For the last time at this point, the pair GBP / USD was at the end of June 2016, on the eve of the referendum on Brexit.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210

Levels of resistance: 1.4100, 1.4180, 1.4250


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.4070. Stop-Loss 1.4135. Take-Profit 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210

Buy Stop 1.4135. Stop-Loss 1.4070. Take-Profit 1.4180, 1.4250

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: what will Mario Draghi now say?

25/01/2018

Current dynamics

Unconditional center of attention of traders today is the meeting devoted to the issues of monetary policy and the ECB press conference. The probability that the ECB's current basic interest rates will remain at the same level (the key rate is 0%, the deposit rate is -0.4%), and the volume of purchases of European assets is at the level of 30 billion euros per month, close to 100 %.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to scale down. This week, the dollar received additional impetus to the fall from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which said that the US dollar, according to their calculations, is still overvalued by about 10%, from the administration of the US president who signed decrees on limiting the import of cheap Asian goods,

as well as from the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, who announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that "a weaker dollar has a positive effect on trade".

Over the past 3 weeks, the dollar index DXY fell 3.3% to 88.8 points, to a three-year low (from December 2014). The euro strengthened over these three weeks to the dollar at the same 3.3% (the euro's share in the basket of the DXY index is about 58%).

Undoubtedly, the Eurodollar has grown in recent months not only due to the weakening of the dollar, but also due to the growth of the economy of the Eurozone, which is ahead of the growth rate of the American economy.

However, a strong euro is also not needed by the European economy, as a strong dollar - to the US economy. This, in full measure, refers to other major world economies. It is not excluded that after the strengthening of national currencies to the dollar, the world's central banks will undertake retaliatory actions.

Investors today will closely monitor what Mario Draghi will say about the strengthened euro and the prospects of the QE program in the Eurozone. Given the current strengthening of the euro against the dollar, Mario Draghi is unlikely to talk about curtailing the stimulus program for the European economy and will try to cool the zeal of euro buyers.

If "Eurobulls" will be disappointed with Draghi's speech, then the EUR / USD pair may be corrected. Nevertheless, in the medium term, the pair EUR / USD should continue to grow.

Investors will still try to understand today how much the ECB's attitude towards the strengthening of the Eurodollar will be tolerated. In any case, in the period from 12:45 (GMT), when the ECB's decision on the rates will be published, until 13:30, when the ECB press conference begins, a surge in volatility in financial markets is expected.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support and resistance levels

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD keeps positive dynamics, has been trading in the zone of multi-month highs, above the important support levels of 1.2330 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), 1.2200 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014).

The pair EUR / USD broke yesterday the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart and continues to trade in the upward channel on the weekly chart, which indicates a strong upward impulse. The target of further growth is resistance levels 1.2600 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 1.2650 (the upper line of the rising channel on the weekly chart and the line of the convergent triangle on the monthly chart).

The target of the downward correction in case of breakdown of the support level 1.2360 will be support levels of 1.2200, 1.2060 (highs of 2017), 1.2000 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart).

Nevertheless, long positions are still preferable. Only in case of breakdown of key support levels 1.1680 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 1.1650 (EMA200 on the daily chart) we can speak about the reversal of the bullish trend of the EUR / USD.

Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680, 1.1650

Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2650


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2350. Stop-Loss 1.2460. Take-Profit 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680, 1.1650

Buy Stop 1.2460. Stop-Loss 1.2350. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2650

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