FOREX PRO WEEKLY, August 13 - 17, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Great report Sive thanks .

You are my Fxsuperman
And you will be remain forever..
We love you dear sive sir..
god bless you

Yes Sive, it is true definitely we love you, Kindest regards, Chalo

Thanks guys for support. Here, at FPA we do our best to help.

What a nervous price behavior during this Asian session. The spotlight will come on Turkey the moment Europe comes online.

Hi mate, yes US is closing EU business in Middle East. That's why a lot of screaming. Bayer is dropping for 10% now... Recall, our picture that we post in January. This is DAX - major EU stock market index. DJIA will be under the same impact. Stock market time is over...

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

So, as we've suggested in weekly report - EUR tries to show some respect to daily support area of XOP, 1.27 butterfy and OS area. At the same time, response stands weaker than it could be. Besides, daily DXY already has completed 1.618 extension of butterfly, so EUR stands 1 step behind of DXY and how this situation will be resolved is very difficult to suggest.

Technically, there are more chances on direct continuation to 1.13 and here is why.. In weekly report we already talked about acceleration on daily chart and tail close. Usually it leads to the next target:

On 4H time frame B&B "Sell" would be logical, but we haven't got it. The one thing that we still could get is DRPO "Buy" but will it be reasonable here by common sense, if we expect another leg down? DRPO is reversal pattern:

It leeds us to conlcusion that downside continuation, may be in a way of DRPO failure seems more probable here. May be market even will for another butterfly with 1.1322 target while on daily butterfly has 1.13 target, so they are close:

That's being said - we could watch for DRPO "Buy" - anything could happen on the market, but logic tells that downward action right to 1.13 has more chances to happen.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi everybody,

So, our suggestion was correct and EUR indeed has dropped lower to 1.13 target and 1.618 butterfly extension. 1.13 is not quite reached for few pips, but today, probably it will happen.

Anyway, the first stage of our long-term plan, based on weekly H&S pattern is completed. All preliminary steps for upside reversal is done. Now the moment of truth is coming and "culmination point" as I call it. It means that EUR either will turn up, or, it will collapse and downward action will continue to our 1.08-1.10 monthly target:

Now we turn our view to bullish patterns, because we suggest upward action and need to watch for patterns.

First one is on 4H chart. Let's call it as DRPO "Buy" Look-alike:

But personally I would prefer hourly chart and harmonic patterns - our butterfly first and possible reverse H&S second. Because particularly these patterns could become a reversal point on EUR. There are two major ways to deal with them. First one is more risky and it suggests taking long position right now based only on butterfly pattern with stop somewhere below 1.1270.
Second one is safer and it is based on possible H&S pattern. In this case entry chance should appear around 1.1365 - the bottom of right arm. And precisely this level will be vital - either H&S will work and upward action starts or, it will be H&S failure, chain reaction with 1.13 breakout and dropping to 1.08 YPS1.

 

[Omosco]

Excellent analysis. You have been so helpful in this biz. Thank you for the selfless service to humanity.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

EUR has completed both our expectations - dropped to 1.13 and completed daily butterfly, second - now is showing some upside action...

Now, we're watching for H&S pattern on hourly chart. Those of you who have taken the risk and entered long yesterday, now could move stops to b/e, while others should keep and eye on 1.1360 area, where right arm bottom should be formed.

As we've warned yesterday and called to place stops below 1.1280 - price indeed has moved slightly lower - right to 1.13 just to complete daily butterfly.
Meantime we're on the way to neckline of our potential H&S pattern. Here we have inner AB-CD pattern and its XOP target leads us precisely to the target:

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

So, today we do not have many changes compares to previous session. Market still stands in upside bounce from our major support area, keeping potential bullish patterns and reverse H&S in particular. Although we prefer to see a bit stronger and faster action on reversal, but anyway the one that we have is still OK:

Still, right now our major time frame is 1H. EUR has paused upward action yesterday and not reached our XOP target and neckline. At the same time, downside action stopped at major support/resistance area and today is the chance that may be price will get there finally.

In general, overall situation is comfortable for us. Those of you who have taken long position right at the bottom now have breakeven stops - others still wait for right arm bottom at 1.1365. Thus, if even EUR will collapse no tragedy will happen.

Right now our vitial point is "A" lows. If EUR will break them - it could mean that we're on a road to 1.08-1.10 area and no upside action will happen.

 

[FreddyFX]

Received this:


Commitment of traders report for the week ending Aug 14, 2018

• EUR short 2K vs 11K long last week.

It is going to be an interesting next couple of weeks.