Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, December 18 - 22, 2023

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

Once we've thought that market could become quiet - EUR shows nice upward action. Once again, the scale-in entry method shows best results. Now I would say that short-term context has turned into bullish.

On daily chart we can't see it, here everything mostly stands the same:

While on 1H chart we have upside acceleration, no bearish grabber has been formed. And now, take a look, we could get the opposite one. This is the first pattern that we need to keep an eye on. Second is - our revere H&S or Cup& handle - how you like it more:

Performance on 1H suggests that downside action is done. With upside acceleration to XOP and breaking all local resistance levels - this way of action is not typical for starting of the 2nd leg of downside retracement. Thus, we suggest that upside breakout looks more probable now and could take the shape of the butterfly. Chance for position taking we have here, right at 3/8 support level where market now stands:

So, let's see...

 

[Georget@]

Yep, the dark side of this business. Sometimes happens...

Thanks for the support! I don't know how anyone can succeed without a mentor like Sive.

 

[Nai]

Hi Sive,
it broke the 3/8 support and going to 50%. where should a put a stop loss?

 

[Georget@]

Hi Sive,
it broke the 3/8 support and going to 50%. where should a put a stop loss?

I think below A point. In this case the butterfly scenario is canceled.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,
it broke the 3/8 support and going to 50%. where should a put a stop loss?

I think below A point. In this case the butterfly scenario is canceled.

Yes, Georget@ is correct. As we're dealing with butterfly, its vital point stands at the bottom - "A" lows. Until market flirts around and above it - butterfly keeps theoretical chances to appear. Still, too deep retracement back to "A" also is not good, increasing chances of butterfly's failure.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

So we thought it could be bore, but it's OK, EUR remains interesting... So, on daily chart we have nothing special, mostly bullish context remains intact:

Meantime, on intraday charts we get some clarity on patterns and our trading setup. First is - on 4H chart we have clear symmetrical triangle after strong rally, which could be treated as a bullish sign. ON DXY you could see this pennant even on daily time frame.

10-year yield is dropping but has not reached yet major 3.8% target. Besides, take a look at DXY once again - it is forming this pennant right at XOP. Usually after XOP markets show more or less bounce, but here we do not have it. Which could be an indirect sign that dollar has no power to do it.

Finally, picture is becoming clearer and on 1H chart with our entry setup. Now we have downside AB-CD that creates an Agreement support area with major 1.0925 Fib level. If you still consider long entry - this is good area to think about. Let's keep 1.1040 target by far, hardly it will be exceeded this week. And invalidation point is the same - lows (red spot) of the butterfly:

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

So, today is last pre Xmas session. Market appears to be not as boring as we thought. Everything in general goes well, as EUR accurately follows to our plan. DXY has dropped yesterday, but 10-year yields haven't reached 3.8% target yet. So, if we get lower PCE today, maybe this will happen.

On daily chart we have 1.1075-1.1085 target, but I'm not sure that EUR will be able to complete it today:

So, it would be better to focus on something nearer. On 4H chart everything goes well with our H&S and butterfly pattern. Butterfly has 1.1045 target:

On 1H chart we also have inner AB-CD with 1.1030 target. So this level looks more realistic for today. Let's see.