Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Yep, concerning interventions is a great topic. Now many traders suggest that 152 should become the one, where it could happen.
Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, February 19 - 23, 2024
- Thread starter Sive Morten
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Yep, concerning interventions is a great topic. Now many traders suggest that 152 should become the one, where it could happen.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,664
Morning everybody,
So, our intraday setup has worked nice, but this is only the half of our trading plan. The major thing that we need is to estimate where to sell. Because weekly trend is still bearish and fundamental background stands not in favor of the EUR. Current rally seems temporal.
Currently we do not have yet reasons to do this, as daily trend remains bearish. But, personally I like K-area of 1.0865-1.0880 here, on daily chart.
At the same time there are many contradictive issues. For example - market has formed downside reversal swing on daily chart, hence, upside bounce should be stronger. But at the same time it holds minor harmonic pullbacks (we're in channel on 4H chart) and now this harmonic pullback already is over
So, could market start dropping right from here? Probably yes, especially if we get hawkish Fed minutes today. Another contrasting performance stands on 1H chart. Market has completed our OP target, but we see acceleration to it, which means that XOP also could be reached around 1.0871 area. Now price is forming the pennant that also might be bullish continuation pattern...
So, what we should do with all this mess? Let's try to find out. First is, you have to split the time frames and decide where are you trading on? Either weekly/daily or daily/intraday. If the former is your choice, then your context is bearish and as I said, I would wait for daily K-area. Besides, 1H XOP perfectly fits to it as well, making Agreement.
If your choice is latter one, then, your context is bullish and you need to consider long entry with 1.0871 target. You could think about support levels on 4H chart. 1.0760 lows seem like invalidation point for this scenario - market should not erase yesterday's rally totally. So, as you could see - everything is not as difficult
So, our intraday setup has worked nice, but this is only the half of our trading plan. The major thing that we need is to estimate where to sell. Because weekly trend is still bearish and fundamental background stands not in favor of the EUR. Current rally seems temporal.
Currently we do not have yet reasons to do this, as daily trend remains bearish. But, personally I like K-area of 1.0865-1.0880 here, on daily chart.
At the same time there are many contradictive issues. For example - market has formed downside reversal swing on daily chart, hence, upside bounce should be stronger. But at the same time it holds minor harmonic pullbacks (we're in channel on 4H chart) and now this harmonic pullback already is over
So, could market start dropping right from here? Probably yes, especially if we get hawkish Fed minutes today. Another contrasting performance stands on 1H chart. Market has completed our OP target, but we see acceleration to it, which means that XOP also could be reached around 1.0871 area. Now price is forming the pennant that also might be bullish continuation pattern...
So, what we should do with all this mess? Let's try to find out. First is, you have to split the time frames and decide where are you trading on? Either weekly/daily or daily/intraday. If the former is your choice, then your context is bearish and as I said, I would wait for daily K-area. Besides, 1H XOP perfectly fits to it as well, making Agreement.
If your choice is latter one, then, your context is bullish and you need to consider long entry with 1.0871 target. You could think about support levels on 4H chart. 1.0760 lows seem like invalidation point for this scenario - market should not erase yesterday's rally totally. So, as you could see - everything is not as difficult
Hello Sive! I especially liked your daily comment today!Morning everybody,
So, our intraday setup has worked nice, but this is only the half of our trading plan. The major thing that we need is to estimate where to sell. Because weekly trend is still bearish and fundamental background stands not in favor of the EUR. Current rally seems temporal.
Currently we do not have yet reasons to do this, as daily trend remains bearish. But, personally I like K-area of 1.0865-1.0880 here, on daily chart.
View attachment 90319
At the same time there are many contradictive issues. For example - market has formed downside reversal swing on daily chart, hence, upside bounce should be stronger. But at the same time it holds minor harmonic pullbacks (we're in channel on 4H chart) and now this harmonic pullback already is over
View attachment 90320
So, could market start dropping right from here? Probably yes, especially if we get hawkish Fed minutes today. Another contrasting performance stands on 1H chart. Market has completed our OP target, but we see acceleration to it, which means that XOP also could be reached around 1.0871 area. Now price is forming the pennant that also might be bullish continuation pattern...
View attachment 90321
So, what we should do with all this mess? Let's try to find out. First is, you have to split the time frames and decide where are you trading on? Either weekly/daily or daily/intraday. If the former is your choice, then your context is bearish and as I said, I would wait for daily K-area. Besides, 1H XOP perfectly fits to it as well, making Agreement.
If your choice is latter one, then, your context is bullish and you need to consider long entry with 1.0871 target. You could think about support levels on 4H chart. 1.0760 lows seem like invalidation point for this scenario - market should not erase yesterday's rally totally. So, as you could see - everything is not as difficult
In no way underestimating all the other reviews and your daily work helping us survive, earning to the best of our abilities and possibility .. But such a coherent, specific overview of trading goals, objectives, and nuances at the moment, which at the same time gives a complete understanding of the current market, seems to me unattainable, except in case for your professionalism, experience, and understanding of the market!
Sorry for the overabundance of epithets, but every day reading your new comment, I admire and, taking this opportunity, I want to express it!
RahmanSL
Major
- Messages
- 2,938
Yes, my friend, 152 levels would be the best levels to enter short trades as that's the levels where the BOJ would probably be pressured to intervene due to increasing cost of their imports into Japan. Patience is a virtue and all good things come to those who waits! Thank you very much, cheers, and all the best!
RahmanSL
Major
- Messages
- 2,938
I supposed it would be wise and prudent to wait for the highly-anticipated FOMC meeting minutes before deciding on which direction to go for EUR/USD. For the moment, I have absolutely no position on any currency pair but is keeping both eyes on USD/JPY and EUR/USD.Morning everybody,
So, our intraday setup has worked nice, but this is only the half of our trading plan. The major thing that we need is to estimate where to sell. Because weekly trend is still bearish and fundamental background stands not in favor of the EUR. Current rally seems temporal.
Currently we do not have yet reasons to do this, as daily trend remains bearish. But, personally I like K-area of 1.0865-1.0880 here, on daily chart.
View attachment 90319
At the same time there are many contradictive issues. For example - market has formed downside reversal swing on daily chart, hence, upside bounce should be stronger. But at the same time it holds minor harmonic pullbacks (we're in channel on 4H chart) and now this harmonic pullback already is over
View attachment 90320
So, could market start dropping right from here? Probably yes, especially if we get hawkish Fed minutes today. Another contrasting performance stands on 1H chart. Market has completed our OP target, but we see acceleration to it, which means that XOP also could be reached around 1.0871 area. Now price is forming the pennant that also might be bullish continuation pattern...
View attachment 90321
So, what we should do with all this mess? Let's try to find out. First is, you have to split the time frames and decide where are you trading on? Either weekly/daily or daily/intraday. If the former is your choice, then your context is bearish and as I said, I would wait for daily K-area. Besides, 1H XOP perfectly fits to it as well, making Agreement.
If your choice is latter one, then, your context is bullish and you need to consider long entry with 1.0871 target. You could think about support levels on 4H chart. 1.0760 lows seem like invalidation point for this scenario - market should not erase yesterday's rally totally. So, as you could see - everything is not as difficult
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,664
Thank you, mate. Actually, once, when I was just starting with DiNapoli, I was studying and watching the same kind videos from K. Riordan, DiNapoli expert many years ago (he was an chartist in big brokerage firm, working together with L. Jouflas, who later wrote the book "Trade what you see" on using of Gartley patterns ). And I know how handy they are. So, I find this way of analysis the best for studying and practice, and we decide to use this method here, on FPA. We're glad that many people like it.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,664
Morning everybody,
So, the Feds minutes are released but we have no meaningful effect, just because the meeting was before strong CPI numbers... Anyway this doesn't change anything as market goes with our scenario. To be honest I do not understand the euphoria on EUR and gap open on DAX index today...
On daily chart we're still waiting for 1.0865-1.0880 K-area as potentially suitable for bearish signs. Until EUR hits it, we do not take any shorts:
Our intraday plans for the bulls works nice. On 4H chart, EUR has formed just 3/8 retracement, keeping our vital K-support intact. Besides, few hours later the bullish grabber has been formed:
Now, on 1H chart we watch for XOP - 1.0876 target. If you keep longs - think how to manage it, move stops to breakeven at least...
The one thing that we have to mention here is another minor XOP at 1.0855 (not shown here - "C" lows is an "A" point for this expansion). It is based on engulfing pattern. So, be prepared that market could show some reaction on it and watch 1.0855-1.0875 area carefully because it could the time to out.
So, the Feds minutes are released but we have no meaningful effect, just because the meeting was before strong CPI numbers... Anyway this doesn't change anything as market goes with our scenario. To be honest I do not understand the euphoria on EUR and gap open on DAX index today...
On daily chart we're still waiting for 1.0865-1.0880 K-area as potentially suitable for bearish signs. Until EUR hits it, we do not take any shorts:
Our intraday plans for the bulls works nice. On 4H chart, EUR has formed just 3/8 retracement, keeping our vital K-support intact. Besides, few hours later the bullish grabber has been formed:
Now, on 1H chart we watch for XOP - 1.0876 target. If you keep longs - think how to manage it, move stops to breakeven at least...
The one thing that we have to mention here is another minor XOP at 1.0855 (not shown here - "C" lows is an "A" point for this expansion). It is based on engulfing pattern. So, be prepared that market could show some reaction on it and watch 1.0855-1.0875 area carefully because it could the time to out.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,664
Morning everybody,
So, EUR is started expected downside reaction on strong ~1.0870 daily resistance area. Other markets dynamic for now stands in favor of the US Dollar - 10 year yields are climbing higher, recent 20-year bonds auction was very weak. Let's see whether it becomes downside reversal or not.
If you have missed to take position or just were waiting for more bearish signs - here is what we could use. On 4H chart we've got bearish engulfing pattern, so we could count at least on downside AB-CD shape:
While on 1H chart in a case of real downside reversal, larger H&S pattern could be formed. So you could choose what pattern you would like to follow. For position taking you could consider Fib levels here. Here we could watch either for just 3/8 bounce, that is mostly done already or, "222" Sell pattern if upside action will be a bit higher:
For now we do not consider any new longs by far.
So, EUR is started expected downside reaction on strong ~1.0870 daily resistance area. Other markets dynamic for now stands in favor of the US Dollar - 10 year yields are climbing higher, recent 20-year bonds auction was very weak. Let's see whether it becomes downside reversal or not.
If you have missed to take position or just were waiting for more bearish signs - here is what we could use. On 4H chart we've got bearish engulfing pattern, so we could count at least on downside AB-CD shape:
While on 1H chart in a case of real downside reversal, larger H&S pattern could be formed. So you could choose what pattern you would like to follow. For position taking you could consider Fib levels here. Here we could watch either for just 3/8 bounce, that is mostly done already or, "222" Sell pattern if upside action will be a bit higher:
For now we do not consider any new longs by far.
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