Forex Signal (Wednesday April 4, 2012 - 8:15am EDT) - ADP NFP Change

[Stavro D'Amore]

Hello All,

Please see my trade plan below for this news release.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Forecast 205K
Previous 216K
Pair to trade: USD/JPY
Numbers we need to Buy or SELL
BUY 250 (deviation +45
SELL 160 (deviation -45)

Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Actual forecast is good for the currency
Occurrence: This data Released monthly, about 2 days after the month ends.

About our Triggers:
If US ADP NFP Change number comes out at 160 or less USD/JPY should go down by about 35 pips. We are using triggers of -45 for short.
If it comes out at 250K or better USD/JPY should go up by about 30 pips. We are using for +45 trigger for long.

Why do we care? And what is this release all about?
ADP provides payroll services to many Businesses in the US. They use the data collected from their customers to derive the overall employment estimations. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
The total nonfarm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States. The nonfarm payroll statistic is used to assist government policy makers and economists determine the current state of the economy and predict future levels of economic activity

Method to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

See my Euro Analysis
Euro analysis

Please keep in mind possibility of Revision number before entering any of these strategies.

Prior to the release (6-3 mins) I will be looking for a short term scalping position in USD/JPY and I will get out of this trade 30 seconds before the actual release or any spreads that should widen.

I'd recommend spike trading as the best option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you’re using an ECN broker.

I will look for a 50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike, and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be Just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a level looking at a 15 min time frame.

Historical Chart and Data for US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change


All the best

Stavro D’Amore

 

[Jamir0n]

"Numbers we need to Buy or SELL
BUY 250 (deviation +45
SELL 160 (deviation -45)

"

Stavro,

complements on a great job your doing here. we wouldnt be able to collect those pips if it wasnt for your services. so thank you.

on a different token, i do have a question: how do we see/calculate/identify those deviation levels you mention in your analysis????

FYI: im a newbie and some technical terms slip me by:-$

thanx again.

regards,

 

[PipDog]

We...?

...we wouldnt be able to collect those pips if it wasnt for your services...

Funny. I think the "we" should be an "I". Stavro is providing his opinion. The FX market would still react to the news if he was not doing so. And, many of us would still be trading....and yes, making pips.

I set my triggers and trading logic based upon a number of things...mostly my experience. I do like to see what Stavro has to say...but he hardly deserves any credit for my gains or losses.

If you're trading the FX, you'd better get to the point where you use your own judgement, not anyone elses. And control your hyperbole and praise.

 

[Stavro D'Amore]

What you saying Pip dog???, I should not get any credit for my trade plans??

Im glad you all enjoy it, just spread the word im always here.

 

[PipDog]

What you saying Pip dog???, I should not get any credit for my trade plans??

Im glad you all enjoy it, just spread the word im always here.

Stavro,
Absolutely not! You provide a good insight to one way to trade the news. I'm fairly sure many of us here...that do read your posts...can and do make trades based upon our own plan. I'd say that we are "able to collect those pips" mostly independent of others.

For example, did you happen to catch my recommendation to short the AUDUSD a few weeks back...I think I said something like "the AU is a screaming short at 1.0800"? That has been a great plan, to say the least. I'm still short on some of that original trade.

I'm sure others here have similar stories.

 

[gyanirahul]

Thanks a Lot Stavro sir.. you are rocking thanks a lot for giving some time to traders like us from your busy schedule

 

[Stavro D'Amore]

Stavro,
Absolutely not! You provide a good insight to one way to trade the news. I'm fairly sure many of us here...that do read your posts...can and do make trades based upon our own plan. I'd say that we are "able to collect those pips" mostly independent of others.

For example, did you happen to catch my recommendation to short the AUDUSD a few weeks back...I think I said something like "the AU is a screaming short at 1.0800"? That has been a great plan, to say the least. I'm still short on some of that original trade.

I'm sure others here have similar stories.

Yes i have been SHORT AUD for very long time now as well.