Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, August 07 - 11, 2023

[Ugyen Penjore]

Hi mate, no it can't. First is, the Fed programme lets market to borrow the amount equals to nominal price of the bonds (i.e. larger) than market price and pay not 5.5% but lower, special rate. Second - This special programme is just around 105+ Bln. If you're speaking on Reverse Repo - this is only the 50%, but there is another one - banks reserves around the same 1.8 Trln that Fed is paying interest on. The difference between the rates is around 0.1-0.2%, so it absolutely doesn't resolve the problem.

Second is - US has 32 Trln in debt which is significantly greater than DRPO. Besides, we're talking only about interest payments that come to 1Trln per year (which is around the total value of whole DRPO size), but we also have the budget - outright government spending.

Thus, you're right - the revenues from DRPO are used on a profit size of the balance, but it takes very small part in total amount of spending.



Until H&S is valid we consider long scenario - above 1920-1925 area. Downside breakout turns us short with targets under 1900. But it is commonly speaking.

Thank you Sive Sir, for your detailed information.

 

[jianean]

Morning guys,

Gold is testing our patient, stuck in right arm's area and flirting around. Despite this, H&S is still valid and remains valid until price stands above the right arm's bottom, i.e. 1920-1925 lows. Today my price markings 20$ above yours, because I'm using Gold CME Futures, but the shape of the chart is the same.

Here we have few tactical moments that do not impact on overall idea, but might be important for those who are still thinking about long entry. Just to remind you - bears could start action only if price drops under the arms. In this case our scenario changes to opposite and we start betting against H&S pattern:
View attachment 85778

As we already has said previously - all preparation are done, gold has tested predefined level last week and some longs are taken probably already. Still, on 4H chart we have the gap that has not been closed yet totally. This is potentially bearish sign, in terms that gold could try to close it before upward reversal and potentially might be interesting, if you're still planning the long entry...
View attachment 85779

Another signs we have on 1H chart. First is - few bearish grabbers. One of them also suggests drop under the "Reversal bar" lows. Second - downside XOP target that has not been reached as well. It means that we could get another range for potential long entry of 1946-1963 (in spot quotes it is around 1926-1943).
View attachment 85780

Of course it absolutely makes no impact of major scenario, but this moments could help you to make decision, if you would like to take the long position and reduce potential risk of the trade.

Sorry but in view of the differences to the real prices, I do not understand why you are using the 'Futures' charts? Am I missing something?

 

[Sive Morten]

Sorry but in view of the differences to the real prices, I do not understand why you are using the 'Futures' charts? Am I missing something?

Because futures charts are more correct that Retailers CFD.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi everybody,
Sorry for delay, I'm travelling and not always have access to the net. Next week I'll be in an office, so everything will return back to usual shedule. As on EUR as on Gold - I've replaced charts with some CFD, hopefully you will be more comfortable with them.

On daily chart we do not see something really new. As on EUR as on other markets - recent news on Intalian banking sector and Moody's decision to downgrade few US banks have triggered demand for the USD and damaged our bullish scenario a bit.

Thus, on daily chart, price has erased reversal bar, which actually was the starting point of upside bounce:

On 4H chart you could see, that our XOP is done and market is coiling around Agreement support area. This is last chance for the bulls. Downside drop through XOP and 1920 could open road to 1890 lows and H&S failure:

Here we need some time to see, whether Gold could take recent bearish news or not. On 1H chart, if we start getting something like this, minor H&S, and bullish reversal swing - bulls should get the final chance. If not - then gold will keep going lower:

Currently market is stunned a bit by crashing recent bullish setup and still needs time to choose the direction. You could try to anticipate both scenarios but it is accompanied with high risk. Still, potential loss will be small as you take position around reversal points. For bearish scenario, maybe it makes sense to use Stop "Sell" entry order around 1915-1917 area to step in on acceleration after breakout.

 

[Tchurik]

Hi everyone, hi Sive,

For those who follow the Natgas, we have a great green candle on weekly chart, our long term TP1 and our short term TP2 on the second trade should be reached soon.

You can find the buy entry we took here :

Gold - GOLD PRO WEEKLY, June 26 - 30, 2023

Fundamentals This week we have a kind of combination of political and economical news, that are important, but, maybe do not have direct and immediate impact on the markets. Changing rhetoric of EU regulation authorities concerning frozen Russian assets indirectly points on changing vector in...

www.forexpeacearmy.com

I intend to use this nice reaction and keep on buying and find new entries once we reached our first targets.
Great performance on this plan with a 50% gains on the long term position, and two take profits on the second trade.

I ll post some analysis soon, stay in the plan!

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

Gold market situation is still tricky. At first glance it is more evident that EUR but it is not. Yes, it seems traders do not believe in strong CPI today and are aiming on H&S failure, but problem might be with breakout of the lows because 1905-1910 K-support is still here. Nearest daily downside target is 1867.

Besides, on 4H chart we also have next XOP target, which makes Agreement with daily K-area:

That's why, in current circumstance, despite that situation is going to H&S failure, I would consider short entry, using Stop "Sell" entry level below XOP, when price will be under daily K-support level. Or, consider upside bounce after XOP will be hit, if bearish position will be supported by CPI numbers (stronger than expected).

For the bulls we have not many scenarios, just one, actually. If CPI will be weak, market could try to form H&S pattern on 1H chart. I'm not sure with success and durability of this pattern, but it should trigger at least minor upside reaction, and could be used for long entry...

 

[jianean]

Greetings everybody,

Gold market situation is still tricky. At first glance it is more evident that EUR but it is not. Yes, it seems traders do not believe in strong CPI today and are aiming on H&S failure, but problem might be with breakout of the lows because 1905-1910 K-support is still here. Nearest daily downside target is 1867.
View attachment 85818

Besides, on 4H chart we also have next XOP target, which makes Agreement with daily K-area:
View attachment 85819

That's why, in current circumstance, despite that situation is going to H&S failure, I would consider short entry, using Stop "Sell" entry level below XOP, when price will be under daily K-support level. Or, consider upside bounce after XOP will be hit, if bearish position will be supported by CPI numbers (stronger than expected).

For the bulls we have not many scenarios, just one, actually. If CPI will be weak, market could try to form H&S pattern on 1H chart. I'm not sure with success and durability of this pattern, but it should trigger at least minor upside reaction, and could be used for long entry...
View attachment 85820

Further to my earlier comment, I knew there had to be some good reason to change the charts that we have been used to for many years, but if you are going to stick with the latest "CFD" charts, then it appears to me to be an excellent idea. With this, the figures on the charts again match those on my platform, so the confusion, of the earlier change, has disappeared.
What would we all do without our daily dose of "Sive". A deep, deep thank you.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

So, gold market has shown no reaction on CPI numbers as well and bulls have got no chances for position taking. Existence of daily K-support area makes possible upside bounce that we could try to use for short entry. Potentially we could get downside butterfly with 1st target around 1865$ area, which agrees with downside COP. OP makes Agreement with 5/8 Fib level:

On 4H chart we also have XOP near the bottom:

On 1H chart bulls have got nothing, no H&S and no chances for long entry. Now we do not consider it, but are watching for levels for possible short entry, as market could show the pullback because of daily strong support area and right wing of daily butterfly might be formed:

Taking it all together, we have two ways for position taking that are not contradictory. First one is upside bounce to either 1H K-resistance or 5/8 level on chart above. Second is to consider Stop "Sell" entry level somewhere between the 4H XOP and the bottom. So, let's see...