BTC 04 June 2018 Technical update
(Uptades weekly, on Mondays)
As you can see last week has shown small range and barely impacts our previous analysis. Weekly chart mostly stands the same.
Two weeks ago we've mentioned warning signs for bulls, guys, and our worst expectations are coming to reality right now. On weekly chart BTC has failed to reach even minor COP target around 10 160$ and turned down. Trend has turned bearish and we've got first bearish stop grabber, which, in turn, suggests drop below recent lows of ~6 500$. Last week we've got another one, which starts to look as a tendency... Thus, on weekly chart overall picture has not changed, and looks bearish. If you're searching change to take investing long-term position on BTC - this is not the time to do it and it is necessary to wait when either BTC will drop below 6500$. Now we need to estimate first target that BTC could reach within 1-2 weeks.
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Last week we already have mentioned classical truncation inside triangle - price was not able to reach upper border of triangle and turned down. According to classical technical analysis, this could be a early hint on downside breakout. No reasons to buy either. Now it is time to take a look at target that market should reach. They are major XOP target right from ABC pattern at top and second one - smaller AB=CD pattern from triangle. But both of them point on the same 4300$.
Second very important issue - we also could get large butterfly "Buy" with the same destination point. All targets coincide with daily oversold level as well.
Last week price has reached lower border of triangle and now shows minor pullback.
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Things that we see on intraday chart make us think that current upside action has more retracement features. Upward action a bit choppy. On 4H chart it takes the shape of flag. Now we will kee an eye on 7600-7900 resistance area. This is former lows of the arms of failed H&S pattern:
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On hourly chart upisde retracement could form "222" Sell pattern and downward action could re-establish. AB-CD target stands around the same 7900-8000$ area. This probably will be the target of this week, if, of course, BTC will not turn down earlier.
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That's being said - bearish continuation pattern that we've mentioned last week, could be formed and, as we've suggested, it will be "222" Sell.
While long-term traders should wait reaching of ~4300$, where we will do additional analysis on perspective of bullish reversal, which could be triggered by daily butterfly "Buy". Currently we do not see any reasons to buy BTC.