Fundamental Analysis by Admiral Markets

Admiral Markets · Sep 8, 2015

Thin Economic Calendar To Restrict Big Forex Moves

Even if the US NFP disappointed market players during its Friday's release, seven year low unemployment rate and improving wage details helped greenback index (I.USDX) secure another positive weekly closing. The Euro witnessed considerable declines after the ECB President signaled that renewed threat of downside risk to the economy could force the central bank in extending its QE while downgraded growth and inflation forecasts provided additional damages to the regional currency. Further, weaker Manufacturing and Services PMIs dragged down the GBP against majority of its counterparts while pessimism over China kept hurting the commodity basket and the antipodeans, namely AUD, NZD and CAD.

Having witnessed considerable forex moves during last week, fewer economic details are scheduled during the current holiday-shortened-week that starts with US and Canadian Labor Day on Monday. Though, China is back after its four day off with revised down GDP numbers for 2014. Hence, Chinese Inflation details and Australian labor market figures, coupled with monetary policy meetings by the RBNZ, BoC and BoE, are likely to continue fueling forex market liquidity. Moreover, US PPI and Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment, with monthly reading of UK Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance are some other stats that could make market players busy during the current week. It should also be noted that there isn't any major details out of the Europe this week except Tuesday's German Trade Balance.

Fewer US Details to Track

In addition to the Thursday's weekly Jobless Claims, monthly readings of PPI and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, scheduled for Friday, are the only US releases scheduled during the current week. While the Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment are both likely to remain near to their previous numbers, PPI is expected to mark first negative number, -0.1%, in four months and could drag down the greenback if it meets consensus. Last week's US job numbers magnified uncertainty relating to timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and market players are more likely to keep observing minor details, in dearth of the major ones, ahead of the September 17 FOMC to determine near-term USD moves.

Australian Labor Market Details and Chinese Inflation Numbers To Determine AUD Moves

After the RBA held its interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, disappointing details of GDP and Retail Sales, coupled with recent down-gradation of Chinese GDP, increases the importance of Australian job numbers and Chinese Inflation marks to help forecast RBA's next move in its October 06 meeting.

Pessimism over China, Australia's largest trading partner, seems failed to show clear impact on Australian labor market off-late wherein the Employment Change recently marked considerably good number while the Unemployment rate rose to six month highs. Hence, Thursday's labor market details would be crucial to foresee near-term AUD moves. The Employment Change is expected to rise only by 5.2K against its previous 38.5K while the Unemployment rate can shrink a bit to 6.2% from 6.3% prior. Further, indices for Consumers and Business Sentiment, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, are additional details that can help better predict the AUD moves. With the recent negativity, both the indices, namely NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Sentiment, are more likely to print disappointing numbers, providing additional damages to the Australian Dollar.

Moreover, Chinese Trade Balance, scheduled for Tuesday release, coupled with CPI and PPI, scheduled for Thursday, become additional details to base AUD trades on. Even if the CPI reading is likely to test highest level in a year, by printing 1.9% mark, the PPI bears the pessimistic consensus of plunging to nearly six years' low to -5.6%. Moreover, the Trade balance is likely registering improve trade surplus to 48.6B versus 43.0B prior.

With the on-going raft of Chinese pessimism, leading to commodity declines, disappointing numbers from Australian labor market and China could force the RBA to lift its four month old impasse over monetary policy during October 06 meeting with an interest rate cut, providing considerable downside to the Australian Dollar.

Some Central Bankers To Add Market Liquidity

Although, Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Bank of England (BoE) are less likely to alter their current monetary policies during the their meetings on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year on its Thursday meeting and could zoom the market liquidity. Moreover, the minutes of BoE meeting, scheduled to release during Thursday as well, would also reveal members favoring monetary policy alternation and could add forex volatility.

With the RBNZ's sustained view of keep cutting the interest rates, considering commodity declines, the NZD is more likely to extend its downside while an additional number in MPC members favoring BoE monetary policy change, mainly the interest rate change, could make the GBP recover some of its recent looses. Moreover, the BoC isn't expected to change its current monetary policy after it recently cut the interest rate in July and can become more of a non-event unless there is a surprise rate cut, making CAD vulnerable to plunge against majority of its counterparts.

Rest of the Globe Details

Other than the headline events, Japanese Current Account and Final GDP q/q, scheduled for Tuesday release, coupled with monthly details of UK Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance, scheduled for release on Wednesday, are some other economics that could make the forex players busy during the week.

Off-late, the Japanese currency have been strengthening due to increased safe haven demand and increase in current account surplus, against the 1.25T consensus and 1.30T prior, could add more strength to the JPY. Moreover, improvement in Final GDP figure, against -0.4% initial forecast and 1.0% growth in Q1 2015, can provide considerable strength to the Japanese currency.

At the UK front, Manufacturing Production is expected to maintain its 0.2% growth rate and the Trade deficit is likely widened to -9.5B against -9.2B. Should these stats meet consensus, the pound bears could find additional reason to sell the UK currency.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

Admiral Markets · Sep 15, 2015

FOMC To Dominate This Week’s Forex Moves

With all eyes on this week's crucial FOMC decision, last week's thin economic calendar failed to strengthen the greenback, ignoring the upbeat Jobless Claims and PPI details, as uncertainties for the first Fed rate hike since 2006 forced market players to trim some of the USD longs, resulting into the negative closing of US Dollar Index (I.USDX). Moreover, the year's low by preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment, coupled with Chinese pessimism, favored forecasters expecting no interest-rate change during the current FOMC and triggered increased USD selling pressure. The Euro region currency observed fragile trading sessions with no major releases while the GBP strengthened against some of its counterparts with the BoE seeing UK inflation picking up around the end of the year and sees no effects of Chinese turmoil on Britain's economy. Further, the JPY plunged against majority of its counterparts as the Japanese policy maker signaled further monetary easing while the AUD registered considerable gains with better employment number and the NZD failed to decline much even after the RBNZ cut its benchmark interest rate, as expected.

Looking forward, two-day monetary policy meeting by the US Federal Reserve is likely to command this week's forex moves where the FOMC would reveal whether the central bank will be the first developed economy bank to opt for monetary policy tightening or not. Moreover, monetary policy meetings by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), coupled with inflation numbers from US, UK and EU, and the UK labor market details, are some of the second tier details/events that could continue making the forex traders busy during the week.

All Eyes on Fed

Stronger labor market details and upward revision to the GDP numbers keep all eyes stick on this Thursday's FOMC announcement to see whether the US central bank triggers its first interest rate hike since 2006 or postpone it to next meeting. Moreover, Inflation reading, another important part to determine the Fed move (in addition to already released job details), manufacturing indices and the monthly US Retail Sales, are some of the additional numbers that could help foresee near-term USD moves.

Prior to the Thursday's FOMC, monthly details of US CPI, scheduled for release on Wednesday, becomes an important part of data flow to determine the Fed's move. Even if the US job numbers and the growth details have impressed some of the policy makers, favoring interest rate hike, the inflation mark, previously at +0.1%, is way too less than the 2.0% target set by the US Fed and restricting any monetary policy change. The Core CPI is likely to match its previous 0.1% mark. Should the actual CPI release matches its -0.1% forecast, odds limiting the interest rate hike increases, providing additional reason for the policy makers in delaying the much awaited interest rate lift-off.

Monetary policy meeting by the Federal Reserve, scheduled to announce its decision on Thursday, becomes unarguably the most important event of the week when the policy makers could decide whether the world's largest economy is capable enough to trigger first interest rate hike since 2006 or it is still better to wait for some time. In addition to the interest rate announcement, the quarterly FOMC Economic Projections and the speech by the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, following the rate decision, are also important details to be revealed on Thursday that could determine USD moves.

Considering the sustained improvement in US labor market details, together with better growth numbers and hawkish comments by some of the policy makers, chances of the interest rate hike during the current year can't be denied. However, recent financial turmoil, mainly pressured by Chinese pessimism, keep restricting the central banker from introducing an interest rate lift-off at this meeting. Hence, uncertainty concerning the interest rate alternation could continue hurting the USD ahead of the monetary policy decision. Should the Fed fails to announce the much awaited interest rate hike, the greenback is likely to witness considerable downside on an immediate basis; however, signals to hike the interest rate during the December meeting, coupled with improved economic projections, may help limiting further downside by the US Dollar.

Other than these top-tier economic details, monthly reading of Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index, scheduled for Tuesday release, coupled with Building Permits, Housing Starts and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, to be announced on Thursday, are additional numbers that could help determine intermediate USD moves. While the manufacturing indices are showing unclear picture with Empire State Manufacturing Index expected to reverse prior declines, the slow growth in Retail Sales and weakness in housing market numbers could continue signaling further downside by the greenback unless there are strong positive numbers to read.

UK Job numbers And CPI To Determine Pound Trades

With the recent BoE comments that the CPI is likely to witness up-moves soon, the monthly reading of UK CPI, scheduled for Tuesday release, coupled with the Wednesday's job market details, could provide considerable GBP moves. Moreover, the Retail Sales, contributing majority of UK GDP, scheduled for Thursday, is another number to help forecast GBP strength.

While the CPI is likely to print a lesser than prior 0.1% reading, to 0.0% mark, plunge in Claimant Count Change, to -5.1K v/s -4.9K, coupled with higher average earnings, to 2.5% against 2.4% prior, could strengthen the policy makers comments that the recent Chinese pessimism isn't hurting the UK economy and can help trigger considerable GBP up-move. However, a negative reading of CPI could counter the recent hawkish comments from BoE and may force the UK currency to witness near-term decline.

Fewer European Releases to Help Forecast EUR Moves

Unlike US and UK, the European economic calendar has fewer releases scheduled during the current week. Amongst them, the ZEW economic sentiment indices for EU and Germany, scheduled for Tuesday, and the Final reading of CPI, to be announced on Wednesday, are the only reading to help trigger some EUR moves. The CPI is likely to match its initial forecast of 0.2% while the ZEW indices are expected to register weaker than previous readings, indicating EUR downsides, should the actual releases match forecasts.

BoJ, SNB and New-Zealand GDP Are Amongst The Rest To Fuel The Forex Market

Recent comments by the Japanese policy maker, indicating further monetary easing in near future, helped the upcoming BoJ meeting, scheduled for Tuesday, to gain more market attention. Even if the central banker isn't expected to alter its current monetary policy, comments revealing weaker economic situation, coupled with the hint to further monetary easing, could provide considerable downside to the JPY. Alternatively, discussion relating to positive economics by the BoJ Governor, after the rate announcement, may reimburse some of the recent JPY losses.

After the January's surprise interest rate cut, that shook the global financial markets, the Swiss National Bank has been on hold and hasn't discussed any further measures to monetary policy alteration. The central bank is expected to maintain its intact status during its Thursday's meeting as well and is less likely to affect the CHF moves. However, dovish remarks in the monetary policy statement and/or surprise interest rate cut, could become drastically negative for the CHF.

Quarterly reading of New-Zealand GDP, scheduled for Thursday, becomes important in forecasting further moves of the RBNZ after the central bank recently said that it won't retreat from further interest rate cuts, if the economy needs. The growth measure is likely to print 0.6% mark against its 0.2% previous release and can help expect a policy halt during next RBNZ meeting, On October 28. However, weaker than expected reading could strengthen the speculations that the central bank would continue cutting its benchmark interest rates, providing further NZD declines.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

Admiral Markets · Sep 22, 2015

ECB Testimony & US GDP In Focus Now

Even after FOMC officials failed to lift the Fed rate during its much awaited September monetary policy meeting, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn't reflect the pessimism and closed in a positive territory as some of the policy makers, in their public speeches during weekend, remained optimistic for the first interest rate hike since 2006 to take place during the current year. The Federal Reserve, in its quarterly economic projections, lowered growth and inflation forecasts together with cutting down longer-term interest rate path; however, 13 out of 17 policy makers still expect rates to increase in 2015, strengthening the chances of December rate hike. The Euro closed in negative region against majority of its counterparts as weaker inflation mark kept favoring the extended QE while the GBP liquidated some of its early week gains, mainly fueled by upbeat labor market details, as one of the BoE policy makers, the chief economist, Andy Haldane, said that the next move by the BoE could be an interest rate cut rather than a hike. Uncertainty in the global market kept favoring the JPY while Gold rallied to three week hike on safe haven demand. Moreover, the commodity currencies, namely the AUD, NZD and CAD, remained positive as commodity basket halted its decline.

After the September FOMC proved less harmful to the USD, market players would closely examine the US economics in order to determine the chances of December rate hike as fewer people expect any moves by the Fed in October. Hence, this week's final reading of Q2 2015 US GDP, coupled with the US Durable Goods Orders and some of the housing market numbers, will be of higher importance. Moreover, testimony by the ECB President and Flash readings of Manufacturing & Services PMIs, for EU and Germany, are some other details that could continue making Forex traders busy during the rest of the week. It should also be noted that Japanese markets will be observing holidays through Wednesday and has only Inflation figures on the plate to release while there isn't anything important scheduled to publish from the UK in the upcoming week.

US GDP, Durable Goods Orders And Housing Market Numbers To Determine USD Moves

Having witnessed a cold reaction to the recent FOMC interest rate decision and economic projections, it becomes more important to closely examine the front-line US economics to determine chances of the Fed's interest rate hike during the current year. Hence, the Final version of Q2 2015 GDP, scheduled for Friday release, together with the monthly details of Durable Goods Orders, scheduled to release on Thursday, and figures relating to Existing and New Home Sales, to be published on Monday and Thursday respectively, are some of the stats that could help determine near-term USD moves; however, US GDP will gain more attention amongst all the details.

Given that the recent market turmoil, triggered by China, caused the FOMC to stand pat on its current monetary policy, figures relating to the Q2 2015 GDP growth rate would be of utmost importance during the week. The growth number is expected to match its second estimation of 3.7% rise as compared to the previous quarter expansion of 0.6% on an annual basis. However, the monthly Durable Goods Orders, which also aptly describes the US economics, is likely to register a negative mark, with 2.0% contraction compared to its upwardly revised prior reading of +2.2% while the Core Durable Goods Orders are also bearing weaker growth consensus to 0.2% from previously downgraded number of +0.4%.

Should the US growth figures, coupled with the durable goods orders, disappoint the market, speculations concerning the global economic slowdown hurting the world's largest economy strengthens that in-turn pushes away the chances of December rate hike and can provide near-term downside to the US Dollar. However, alternatively upbeat readings could support the FOMC hawks that still favor 2015 as a trigger to interest rate hike and could restrict the US Dollar downside.

In addition to the mentioned top-tier economics, figures relating to Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales are also important to forecast intermediate USD moves. While the Existing Home Sales are likely to tick down a bit to 5.50M compared to its previous 5.59M, the New Home Sales can reimburse that loss with a three month high figure of 516K versus its 507K prior.

Euro Move Depends On ECB President's Testimony And PMIs

Recent comments from the ECB President, Mario Draghi, during the monetary policy meeting, revealed that the Euro region is facing troubles due to the Chinese action and the central bank stands ready to alter its 1.1 trillion QE, if needed. Moreover, the final reading of Inflation, released last week, printed a slower than expected price rise, favoring some of the ECB policy makers that support the QE extension. Hence, testimony by the ECB President, scheduled for Wednesday, becomes an important event to determine the central banker's intention relating to the QE future. Should the President conveys a dovish message and a need to either stretch the QE timeline beyond September 2016, which is more expected, or to increase the spectrum of bond buying, the regional currency is likely to witness further downside.

Moreover, monthly readings of Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs, from EU and Germany, scheduled for publish on Wednesday as well, could provide additional details to determine whether the regional economy, together with the strong economic player, Germany, is in need for further monetary easing or not. Given these PMIs match their downbeat forecasts, chances are higher that the Euro could continue extending its recent downward trajectory.

Rest of the Globe Details

Other than the US GDP and ECB President's testimony, Chinese Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance numbers from Switzerland and New-Zealand, coupled with the Canadian Retail Sales and Japanese Inflation figures, are rest of the globe details that could help determine near-term Forex moves.

Flash reading of Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, scheduled to release on early Wednesday, could become yet another Chinese detail to favor commodity decline and spread pessimism as the consensus favors one more below 50 reading, 47.6 versus upwardly revised prior of 47.3.

Swiss and New-Zealand Trade Balance details, scheduled for publish on Tuesday and Thursday, favor further downsides of the CHF and NZD respectively. The Swiss Trade surplus is likely funneled down to 2.97B against 3.74B previous while the New-Zealand trade deficit bears the consensus of marking the lowest level last seen in November 2014, to -875M versus -649M prior.

Moreover, the Wednesday's Canadian Retail Sales and the Friday's Japanese Inflation figures are some of the numbers to foresee near-term respective moves of the CAD and the JPY. Even if the recent Canadian retail sales figures have been weaker, the Core retail sales numbers can limit further downside of the Canadian Dollar, CAD. The Retail Sales previously grew 0.6% compared to the upwardly revised 0.9% prior while the Core number matched its downwardly revised 0.8% previous mark. Further, the Japanese National Core CPI y/y is expected to plunge negative for the first time since April 2013 while the Tokyo Core CPI y/y bears the consensus of marking the lowest reading since March 2013. Hence, weaker retail sales may continue dragging down the CAD; though, bounce in crude prices may help forecast further moves of the Loonie, as it is nicknamed, while the deflation marks in the Japanese economy favor the need of extra loose monetary easing and can force the JPY liquidate some of its recent gains.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

Admiral Markets · Sep 29, 2015

Can This Week’s US NFP Favor Recent USD Up-move?

Last week, various central bank representatives, including the Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the ECB President Mario Draghi, pumped considerable volatility into the forex market. Some of the influential FOMC members, together with the Fed Chair, repeated their words of expected interest rate hike during the current year in separate public speeches, which together with better Q2 2015 GDP figures, helped the US Dollar register across the board gains for second consecutive week. The Euro couldn't enjoy the ECB President's resistance from the need of QE alteration at this stage while the GBP witnessed considerable downside as dovish comments from the Bank of England (BoE) policy maker faded speculations favoring the central bank's interest rate hike during the current year. The JPY witnessed a bit downside with numbers relating to manufacturing and inflation indicating need of further monetary easing by the Bank of Japan while the commodities kept extending their declines as Chinese pessimism seems spreading the global disinflation fears.

Looking forward, US labor market details and the EU Flash CPI are the releases that could dominate this week's trading practices while UK GDP and important PMIs may help determine the GBP moves. Moreover, Chinese official Manufacturing PMI, coupled with on-going rout of public speeches by BoE and Fed policy makers, are additional factors that are expected to continue fueling the Forex market volatility during the current week.

Labor Market Details To Command USD Moves

Even if the US Federal Reserve disappointed global markets with no interest rate hike in its September meeting, FOMC members, inclusive of the Fed Chair, kept being loud mouthed during their recent public appearances in favoring an interest rate hike this year with major focus put on improvement in labor market details. Hence, labor market details, including NFP, Unemployment rate and Earnings growth, are what the most market players would look for in order to expect an interest rate hike during the upcoming FOMC meetings in October and December.

Latest figures from the US Bureau of labor statistics, released during early September, marked the first reading below 200K by the NFP since April; however, the Unemployment rate plunged to the lowest since May 2008 and reimbursed the losses emanated from the Non-farm Payrolls. Market consensus for the September month job details, scheduled for release on Friday, signals another +200K NFP, to 202K, and an unchanged Unemployment rate at 5.1% while the earnings are likely to register a slower growth of 0.2% against previously reported 0.3% rise. Moreover, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, believed to be an early signal for the NFP, scheduled for Wednesday release, is also expected to remain near is previous 190K by printing 191K and can support the overall optimism for the US labor market.

With the expected resurgence of optimistic labor market details, chances of Fed's December rate hike gets strengthened if the actual marks meet forecast, favoring the USD up-move; however, global disinflation environment can call for the USD pullback should these details fail to portray the strong job market.

Moreover, some of the FOMC members and the Fed Chair are going to have public appearances during the week that can provide greater insight into the Fed's next move and can help foresee near-term USD moves. Should they continue favoring an interest rate hike in 2015, the greenback is more likely to enjoy its recent up-move.

Although, optimistic job numbers and hawkish comments from the Fed policy makers favor USD surge, some of the second-tier US economics, namely CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders, are likely registering a weaker mark and can pullback the recent USD advance should they meet consensus. US CB Consumer Confidence, scheduled for Tuesday, is expected to mark 96.2 figure versus 101.5 prior while the Manufacturing PMIs, namelyChicago PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI, to be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, may print 53.2 and 50.8 against their respective previous readings of 54.4 and 51.1. Moreover, theFactory Orders, up for Friday release, is likely testing the three month lows with a contraction of orders by -0.9% compared to its 0.4% advance during prior month.

EU CPI To Determine The Fate Of ECB's QE

With the renewed global disinflationary concerns, mainly emanated from China, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been facing strong pressure to extend its Euro 1.1 trillion QE that is intended to end in September 2016. However, the ECB President, Mario Draghi, during his recent testimony before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Committee, said "even though renewed downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation have emerged, the central bank needs some time to analyze the economy in order to alter its QE, if needed" Hence, the Flash reading of EU CPI y/y, scheduled for release on Wednesday, becomes an important point of information to determine whether the regional economy is actually facing the disinflation risks, and the QE extension in-turn, or not.

Preliminary reading of German CPI, scheduled for Tuesday, becomes an advance signal to determine the regional inflation outlook. While the inflation number from the biggest European economy, Germany, is likely to extend its contraction with -0.6% mark versus -0.4% prior, the EU CPI is expected to tick down to 0.0% from the previously revised down figure of 0.1%. Given the actual inflation releases either match the forecasts or deteriorate further, chances of the ECB announcing QE expansion gets strengthened, pushing down the regional currency, Euro. However, an alternative rise (except the strong jump in inflation figure) can only restrict the near-term declines of the Euro.

GBP Trades To Depend Upon The UK GDP And PMIs

Unless recently, the Bank of England (BOE) was also considered to be a strong contestant for an interest rate hike other than the Federal Reserve. However, off-late, after the Chinese move to devalue its currency, speculations have mounted that the central bank would refrain from altering its current interest rates. Moreover, fresh comments from BoE policy makers have also favored a delayed interest rate hike while some of them went farther and said the next move from the central bank would be of interest rate cut than a hike. Hence, Final reading of Q2 2015 UK GDP, scheduled for Wednesday release, coupled with Manufacturing PMI and Construction PMI, to be released on Thursday and Friday respectively, become important to know the strength of UK economy.

While the GDP number is likely to match its second estimate of 0.7% growth, the Manufacturing PMI seems to have been slowed down with 51.3 expected mark versus its previous 51.5 and the Construction PMI bears the forecast of printing 57.5 number compared to its 57.3 prior. Other than the economic numbers, speech by the BoE Governor, scheduled for Tuesday at Lloyds of London, also becomes a critical event to foresee GBP moves. Even if the economic numbers are less likely to provide further harm to the GBP, dovish comments from the BoE Governor can magnify the recent UK currency decline.

Chinese Manufacturing And Rest Of The Globe Details

Ever since the Yuan devaluation, global economies have been threatened by the Chinese slowdown, the global manufacturing hub. Should the leading manufacturing indices from China continue registering the contraction numbers, below 50, chances are higher that the commodity market and the commodity currencies, mainly, AUD, NZD and CAD, can continue witnessing downside pressure. However, strong Manufacturing numbers may restrict further declines of the commodity basket and the antipodeans while longer-term moves still favoring bears unless sustainably positive readings. Chinese Official Manufacturing PMI and the Final reading of Caixin Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Thursday, are amongst these leading manufacturing indices. While the official figure is expected to remain unchanged at 49.7 the Final reading of Caixin Manufacturing PMI may rise a bit to 47.2 from its Flash 47.00 estimate. As the PMIs are struggling in the contraction region, chances are higher that the prices of commodity and commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, can continue trading waters. However, a surprise expansion in these manufacturing indices may trigger a pullback in commodity prices and antipodeans.

After recently weaker Japanese economics fueled concerns for another mammoth stimulus package by the Bank of Japan, Japanese Retail Sales y/y and Prelim Industrial Production m/m, scheduled for Wednesday, become important to determine near-term JPY moves. The monthly retail sales growth figure is expected to slow down a bit to 1.3% from its upwardly revised 1.8% prior while the Prelim Industrial Production is expected to reverse its previous -0.8% downward revision figure with +1.1% gains. Should these releases match their consensus, JPY can continue its upward trajectory. However, weaker readings aren't expected to provide much harm to the Japanese currency as global economic uncertainty can continue favoring the safe haven demand of the JPY.

Australian Building Approvals and Retail Sales, scheduled for Wednesday and Friday respectively, may provide further details, in addition to Chinese Manufacturing PMIs, to forecast AUD moves. While the Building Approvals are likely to plunge negative -1.9% against its previous +4.2% gain, the Retail Sales bears the consensus of printing 0.4% mark versus its prior -0.1% decline. Considering the Chinese pessimism, only strong numbers can help the AUD witness noticeable pullback while the weaker readings can continue pulling down the Australian currency.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

Admiral Markets · Oct 6, 2015

Fewer But Meaningful Releases To Fuel This Week’s Forex Moves

Another set of disappointing US job details, released last Friday, raised doubts concerning the strength of world's largest economy to withstand a rate hike before year-end. This, together with the weakest factory orders in eight months, triggered the first negative weekly closing, in previous three, by the US Dollar (I.USDX). The Euro ignored deflation threats popped by the Flash CPI estimate as weaker greenback shifted back some strength to the regional currency while the JPY, even after witnessing not so good economics, strengthened against majority of its counterparts as global uncertainty helped fueling its safe haven demand. Moreover, the GBP remained strong with better than forecast PMIs and declining current account deficit while Crude prices gained a bit as Russia prepares to talk with OPEC and Non-OPEC members to alter the global crude supply and fifth weekly fall in the U.S. oil rig count underpinned the energy prices.

Having witnessed EU CPI and US labor market numbers during last week, the current week has fewer economic releases scheduled for publish; however, monetary policy meetings by the RBA, BoE and BoJ, coupled with the minutes of the September FOMC meeting are likely to continue fueling the forex moves. Moreover, Trade Balance numbers from Australia, US and Canada, together with the UK Manufacturing Production and Canadian job numbers, are additional details that could make Forex traders busy throughout the current week. It should also be noted that the Chinese markets are close till Thursday while German Factory Orders becomes the only European number up for release during the week. Let's closely examine each of these events.

FOMC Meeting Minutes To Signal USD Trend

Consecutive second NFP below 200K mark, coupled with stagnated wage growth, has made the US policy makers feel pride for their hold-on interest rate lift during September meeting. The policy makers are now being cautious for the December rate hike, for which the chances are higher, and would closely examine each of the economic details prior to practicing such move. However, it becomes all the more important to know what exactly caused them to avoid much expected interest rate hike during September meeting; hence, the minutes of the same meeting would provide critical details to determine near-term USD moves.

During its September FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve step back from the much awaited rate hike move and cut down the growth and inflation forecasts; however, 13 out of 17 policy makers still favor an interest rate lift during the current year, shifting the importance to the December meeting as October move becomes out of question due to weaker economic details. FOMC meeting minutes, scheduled for release on Thursday, could reveal some important details as to what was the main concern behind such avoidance of interest rate increase. Moreover, the minutes would also reveal what are the economic prospects Federal Reserve is expecting for such move to take place in future.

Should the minutes reveal an overall optimistic tone of the FOMC members, as some of them have confirmed in their recent public speeches, together with an indication to December rate hike, the US Dollar could reimburse some of its immediate losses. However, diplomatic tone of the members regarding December rate hike, coupled with the threat concerning the global economic slowdown delaying Fed rate hike, may continue favoring additional downside by the greenback.

In addition to the FOMC minutes, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Monday release, andTrade Balance, to be announced on Tuesday, are some other economic details that could help determine near-term USD moves. Given the PMI matches it's weaker than previous forecast, to 58.00 from 59.00, and the Trade deficit also rises to -42.2B versus -41.9B prior, chances of further declines by the USD can't be denied.

German Factory Orders May Help Extend EUR Gains

As no other releases from Europe scheduled for publish during the current week, chances of theGerman factory orders, scheduled for Tuesday, helping the regional currency extend its recent gains can't be denied. Should the monthly reading from Europe's largest economy matches its forecast of reversing prior -1.4% decline with 0.5% advance, the Euro can continue registering gains against majority of its counterparts; however, another negative reading of the German Factory Orders could strengthen chances of the QE extension as the recent negative reading by the Inflation number have already triggered some doubt about the deflation into the economy.

GBP Traders Should Watch BoE Details

Even if recent UK details have been positive, the BoE MPC members kept on shunning chances of interest rate hike by the UK central bank during the current year while some of them went farther and said that the next move from the BoE would be an interest rate cut rather than a hike. Hence, monetary policy meeting by the Bank of England (BoE), scheduled for Thursday, coupled with the releases concerning MPC votes for the Official Bank Rate and Asset Purchase Facility, become important to determine near-term GBP trades. Moreover, monthly reading of Manufacturing Production, scheduled for Wednesday, is another important reading to help foresee GBP moves.

Although, the BoE isn't expected to alter its current monetary policy, increase in the votes favoring rate change or asset purchase facility change could help extending the recent GBP strength. Moreover, an actual manufacturing production rise, matching with the five month high forecast, to +0.5%, also reversing previous declines of -0.8%, can provide additional reason for the UK currency to gain.

AUD Moves To Depend Upon RBA and Trade Balance

With Chinese markets closed during the first three days of the week, and having no releases scheduled during the rest of the week, Australian economic details would become helpful in forecasting the near-term AUD trend.

Tuesday becomes an important day for the Australian Dollar (AUD) as monthly details of Trade Balance, coupled with the monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), are both scheduled to take place during the same day. While the Trade deficit is expected to shrank to -2.36B versus -2.46B prior, the RBA is expected to hold its current monetary policy intact for the fifth straight meeting.

Absence of Chinese details could help AUD register gains provided the Trade Balance matches forecast while five month intact monetary policy, coupled with the hawkish tone in the statement, may become an additional fuel for the Aussie, as it is nicknamed, to stretch its recent up-move.

BoJ and Canadian Numbers To Help Forecast Respective Trades of JPY & CAD

Weaker inflation and manufacturing details have helped building speculations that the Japanese economy is again slowing down and is in need for more stimulus. However, the policy makers aren't expected to change their monetary policy during the current Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. Given the central bank's signal to continue adhering to accommodative monetary, coupled with indication of global economic slowdown, the JPY may witness a pullback. However, ongoing uncertainty about the global economic situation could restrict further downside by the Japanese currency that enjoys the safe-haven status.

Recent improvement in Crude prices, mainly due to the Russian trigger and declining US rig counts, helped the Canadian Dollar (CAD) register some gains; however, Trade balance and Ivey PMI, scheduled for Tuesday, Wednesday's Building Permits and the labor market details, up for publish on Friday, become crucial to forecast near-term CAD moves.

While the trade deficit is expected to shrink to -0.3B from -0.6B and the Ivey PMI is on its up-move, recent declines in Building Permits and higher Unemployment rate could continue restricting further advances by the CAD. Moreover, a weaker reading of Employment Change may provide additional downside to the Canadian currency.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

Admiral Markets · Oct 13, 2015

Inflation Readings To Fuel This Week’s Forex Moves

Last week, lack of clear signals for the Fed's next move, via FOMC minutes, coupled with dovish remarks from some of the FOMC members, during their public speeches and words at IMF meeting, forced the greenback index (I.USDX) to register consecutive second weekly decline, marking the lowest closing last seen during mid-June and vanishing the early September gains. Further, the EUR, even after witnessing not so good economics, strengthened against majority of its counterparts as the ECB President talked down the need to stretch QE while the GBP was a tad weaker against majority of its counterparts, except USD, as the BoE also joined hands with Fed to refrain from signaling an interest rate hike prospects. Moreover, gains in commodity markets, mainly triggered by the improvement in Gold and Crude prices, fueled the commodity currencies, namely, AUD, NZD and CAD.

Looking forward, inflation readings from US, UK, China, Europe and New-Zealand are likely to play a pivotal role in determining this week's forex moves while labor market details from UK and Australia, coupled with US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, are some of the additional data points that could provide noticeable liquidity into the global financial markets.

Handful Of US Details To Help Forecasting The USD Trend

Even if the uncertainty relating to the Federal Reserve's much awaited interest rate hike keep pulling down the US Dollar, crucial events scheduled during the holiday shortened week, mainly the Inflation mark, could provide a better help to forecast near-term USD moves.

As can be noticed from the aforementioned chart, the monthly reading of US seasonally adjusted inflation recently plunged to the lowest levels last seen during January and the Fed is more worried about the global economic outlook that has been pessimistic off-late. The central bank, even after saying that the US economy is strong enough, would like to see its inflation inching up in order to signal the much awaited interest rate lift-off. However, global markets have already started believing that the Fed's interest hike is less likely to take place in 2015 and a weaker reading of inflation, further plunging into the negative territory to the -0.2% forecast versus -0.1% prior, during its Thursday's release, could provide an additional reason to the US Fed in delaying the interest rate hike announcement and make the way for further depreciation of US currency.Alternatively, an upbeat CPI reading could only provide a bit of pullback to the greenback as the inflation is still way too lower than the central bank's target rate.

In addition to the CPI, Wednesday's PPI and Retail Sales, Thursday's the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment, scheduled for Friday release, are some other data points that could offer greater insights to determine greenback trend. Even if the consumer sentiment gauge is likely to surpass upwardly revised 87.2 prior to the 88.8 mark, and the manufacturing indices from Empire State and Philly Fed are also expected to cut down their previous declines of -14.7 and -6.0 to -7.3 and -1.8 respectively, the PPI may plunge negative for the first time since May, to -0.2% from 0.0% prior, and the Retail Sales bear the consensus of registering 0.2% constant growth. Moreover, the Core PPI can print downbeat reading to 0.1% against its 0.3% prior and Core Retail Sales are expected shrink by -0.1% mark as compared to its previous +0.1% growth. With majority of the US data points signaling weaker economic prospects, chances are higher that the speculations concerning delayed Fed rate hike get stronger and could continue pulling down the greenback towards another southward journey.

Euro Traders To Look For ZEW Readings And Final CPI

Although the ECB President seems afraid of confirming that the regional economy is in need of QE extension, negative reading of the EU Flash CPI and some of the weaker economics keep favoring that the Europe should be given another boost of monetary measures. However, Final reading of CPI, scheduled for Friday release, coupled with the ZEW Economic Sentiment indices for EU and Germany, scheduled for release on Tuesday, are some of readings that could help determine near-term Euro trades. As the economic sentiment is likely registering weaker readings, to the lowest since November 2014 to 30.1 versus 33.3 prior for EU and 6.8 from 12.1 previous mark for Germany, and the Final CPI is also expected to confirm its Flash -0.1% estimate, the ECB is likely getting a bit more of push to announce the QE extension, providing considerable EUR declines. However, a positive CPI and an improvement in economic sentiments may favor the Draghi's optimism and can help the regional currency extend its recent rise.

UK CPI And Labor Market Details Can Trigger GBP Advance

With the recent pessimism surrounding the BoE's monetary policy outlook, market players seem scaling back expectations concerning the interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) and have started pulling out their GBP longs. However, monthly numbers of UK CPI and job details, scheduled for release on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, are both the pillars to determine the central banker's monetary policy actions and a stronger reading could again favor the UK currency's up-move.

While the CPI is likely to remain stagnant at 0.0%, the Core CPI is expected to surpass prior 1.0% mark with 1.1% number. Moreover, the labor market details are more of the positive to help GBP rise as the Average Earnings bear the consensus of rallying by 3.1%, three month's high, against 2.9% prior while the Claimant Counts are also expected to plunge negative by -2.3K from +1.2K prior and the Unemployment rate may print 5.5% constant number. As labor market details signal an improvement and the Core CPI is also indicating an up-move, it becomes nearly safe to say that the global pessimism isn't hurting the UK economy and chances are higher that the BoE could think of providing much awaited interest rate hike signals, fueling the GBP to reverse its recent declines.

Chinese CPI, Australian Job Numbers And New-Zealand CPI From The Rest Of The Globe Details To Fuel Forex Volatility

Recent signals from Chinese authorities to ease some of its fiscal policy norms in a move to fuel the lingering economy, that is expected to register slower growth this year, has once again fueled concerns that the global commodity giants are in trouble. However, the monthly reading of ChineseCPI, scheduled for Wednesday, can shed some more lights on the need for further easing. The inflation measure is likely to test 1.8% mark compared to 2.0% prior while the PPI is expected to remain stagnant at -5.9% reading. Should the inflation numbers pose a deflation threat, recent advances of the commodity prices, and in-turn the commodity currencies' rise, are likely to get reversed.

Considering the RBA's strength to keep negating additional stimulus need, favoring AUD rally, positive readings from the Australian labor market details, scheduled for Thursday, can help the Aussie extend its recent advance. However, the forecasts concerning the details favor an alternative approach as the Employment Change are likely declining a bit from its 17.4K prior to 7.2K while Unemployment rate is expected to remain intact at 6.2%. Should these job numbers weakens, coupled with downbeat Chinese CPI, the AUD can liquidate some of its recent gains.Moreover, Friday's quarterly reading of New-Zealand CPI becomes important to forecast near-term NZD moves. The inflation reading is likely to soften a bit to 0.2% growth compared to its prior 0.4% rise and a weaker reading could rollback some the recent NZD advances.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

Admiral Markets · Oct 20, 2015

All Eyes On ECB

Although, US Core CPI and upbeat Consumer Sentiment fueled the US Dollar advance during later weekdays, the greenback failed to secure positive weekly closing as early week looses, mainly caused by weaker Retail Sales, PPI and speculation concerning delayed Fed interest rate hike, pulled the USD down during last week. The Euro lost a bit more of its weight near week-end as one of the ECB policy maker favored need of QE extension while the GBP rallied considerably after a drop in unemployment rate and better than expected earnings growth. Further, the JPY remained volatile enough due to risk on-off mode, coupled with the talks for additional BoJ easing, and the commodity currencies extended their up-moves with a rise in commodity prices, mainly driven by the crude and gold.

During early Monday, Chinese GDP and Industrial Production fueled the forex market as the GDP, even after being higher than the forecast, grew slowest since 2009 while the Industrial production missed the consensus and registered the slowest growth since April. With fewer economic details scheduled during the current week, monetary policy meetings by the ECB and the BoC are likely to gain major attention by the market players. Moreover, US housing market details, Japanese Trade Balance and RBA meeting minutes are some other events/releases that could continue fueling this week's forex moves.

US Housing Numbers To Help Foresee USD Moves

Given the recent strength of the greenback, backed by improved economics, absence of headline economic releases could continue fueling the uncertainty concerning further USD moves. However, important housing market numbers for the world's largest economy may help determine near-term trend of its currency, namely the US Dollar.

Amongst the headline housing details, Building Permits & Housing Starts, are scheduled for publish on Tuesday and signal not much of the difference than their previous announcements. The Building Permits are expected to mark 1.16M against 1.17M prior while the Housing Starts are likely improved to 1.14M versus its 1.13M release announced during September. Further, Existing Home Sales,scheduled for Thursday release, bears an optimistic consensus of 5.38M against its 5.31M reading published last month. In addition to the housing market details, weekly reading of Jobless Claims, scheduled for Thursday as well, becomes the leftover from US economic calendar. The labor market gauge is expected to rise to the highest level in three week's with 266K as compared to last week's 255K reading.

Dearth of headline US economics could continue fueling uncertainty relating to the USD strength and than for the Fed's next move; however, better housing market numbers may provide intermediate strength to the greenback.

Will ECB Liquidate Recent EUR Strength?

With the recent flash of negative EU CPI, speculations concerning the need for QE extensions have rallied, providing noticeable Euro losses. However, this week's monetary policy meeting by the European Central Bank (ECB), on Thursday, will be crucial in order to forecast the future of QE and the regional currency, EUR, in-turn.

Last Thursday, the Final reading of EU CPI matched its initial -0.1% estimate, the lowest since March, and fueled concerns that the regional economy needs another push to sustain recent global market pessimism. Moreover, one of the influential ECB policymaker, Ewald Nowotny, also favored the need for QE extension to help the Euro-area economy. Hence, this week's ECB meeting becomes crucial in order to foresee the future of QE and the Euro as well.

Even if the regional central bank isn't expected to alter its current monetary policy, inability on the part of the ECB President, during his press conference following the rate announcement, to hide the recent economic weakness and need for further monetary measures could signal QE extension in near-future, forcing the regional currency to liquidate some of its near-term gains. However, continued bold statements by the ECB President, coupled with negating the immediate need of further monetary easing, can extend the recent EUR advances unless economic data-points signal otherwise.

In addition to the ECB meeting, Flash readings of Manufacturing and Services PMIs for Germany and EU, scheduled for release on Friday, can also help forecast the immediate EUR moves. While both the PMIs are likely being lesser than their previous readings, the forecast favor more than 50 mark to print and still support expansion of these activities. However, an actual reading below 50 could provide considerable damages to the regional currency.

GBP Moves To Depend On UK Retail Sales

Absence of front-line UK economics force the GBP moves to depend upon the monthly reading of UKRetail Sales, scheduled for release on Thursday. Forecasts concerning the same favor the rise in UK Retail Sales growth to test highest level in five months, to 0.3% versus its 0.2% prior. With the recent improvement in UK labor market details, an actual retail sales matching the consensus may help GBP extend its recent northward trajectory.

BoC And Canadian Economic Numbers Become Crucial For CAD Players

Recent strength in Crude prices, Canada's main export, helped the Canadian Dollar (CAD) extend its gain series, making the Bank of Canada (BoC) less expected to alter its current monetary policy during its Wednesday's meeting. However, China continues to be on its losing streak and keep flashing red signals for the commodity currencies, including CAD, and hence, a surprise rate cut by the Canadian central bank or a dovish tone of the Governor, in press conference following the rate announcement, can't be ruled out. Moreover, monthly reading of Canadian Retail Sales and the CPI, on Thursday and Friday respectively, are also important readings that could help determine immediate CAD trend.

As the Canadian Retail Sales and CPI have been cutting down off-late, another downbeat reading by them could trim some of the recent CAD gains. Moreover, a surprise rate cut by the central banker, which is less expected, and /or a dovish message sent by the central bank Governor could make the Loonie, as it is nicknamed, decline heavily against majority of its counterparts.

Details/Events From The Rest Of the Global Economy

Other than the ECB and BoC, those are likely to direct this week's forex moves, Wednesday'sJapanese Trade Balance and RBA Meeting Minutes, scheduled for release on Tuesday, are rest of the details that could fuel this week's forex volatility.

Off-late talks concerning the need of additional monetary easing to the Japanese economy have gained momentum and Wednesday's Trade balance for the export oriented country will be important to forecast JPY moves. The consensus favors a cut in Trade deficit to -0.07T against the -0.36T prior; however, details relating to comparative advance/decline in export-import numbers will be crucial.Should the Trade details of export oriented country remain sluggish, mainly due to Chinese pessimism, speculation concerning the additional monetary easing announcement during late October BoJ meeting gets strengthened, pulling back the JPY. However, global economic uncertainty may continue favoring the safe haven demand of the Japanese currency, limiting its further downside.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) again refrained from altering its monetary policy during its recent meeting; however, the Chinese market, Australia's main consumer, keep witnessing the economic hurdles and continue signaling need of RBA to apply monetary easing. Hence, minutes of the recent RBA meeting becomes important as to know what exactly have been restricting the central bank from further monetary easing. If the minutes sound a bit more worried, chances of immediate AUD declines can't be denied.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

Admiral Markets · Oct 27, 2015

Central Bankers and GDP To Fuel This Week’s Forex Moves

Following consecutive three week's decline, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) finally managed to rally towards the highest levels in more than 2 months during its last week's advance as surprise rate cut by the Chinese Central bank, coupled with the ECB's favor to monetary policy easing, fueled investor sentiment for the greenback. The Euro plunged against majority of its counterparts as the ECB President favored need for more monetary easing; though, the actual announcement may come during its December meeting after thorough economic review while the JPY remained lackluster as speculations concerning additional monetary easing by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), during this week, kept limiting the Japanese currency's upside. Moreover, the GBP remained firm with upbeat Retail Sales figures and the antipodeans, namely, AUD, NZD and CAD, witnessed profit booking due to Chinese pessimism.

Current week has many important economic releases/events scheduled that could provide considerable Forex moves. Notable amongst them are monetary policy meetings by the FOMC, BoJ and the RBNZ, GDP releases from UK, US and Canada and CPI releases from EU, Australia and Germany. Moreover, US CB Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders and Chicago PMI are some other details that could continue making Forex traders busy throughout the week.

Rather Than FOMC, The US GDP May Gain Major Market Attention

With the renewed strength in greenback, mainly due to pessimism at EU and China, it becomes more likely that US details will gain major market attention. However, unlike every-time, the FOMC is less prone to fuel the USD moves, unless a surprise signal for the rate hike, which isn't expected. Rather, the Advance reading of US Q3 2015 GDP, is likely gaining the hotspot as a strong reading could favor the December rate hike which is last hope for the USD traders to witness a first Fed rate hike since 2006 during the current year.

As can be seen from the aforementioned chart, the US GDP rallied during its last reading to 3.9% growth rate, indicating a strong economy to withstand the Fed rate hike. However, Advance estimation for Q3 2015 GDP, scheduled for release on Thursday, is expected to reveal economic weakness as forecasts favor 1.6% growth rate; Though, such slowdown in growth was previously expected, mainly due to Chinese weakness, and is less likely to affect the USD in a bitter way unless registering a below 0.6% mark that could raise the bar for the Federal Reserve to increase benchmark interest rates during 2015. Alternatively, an upbeat actual reading could provide considerable strength to the greenback on the back of expectations concerning December rate hike.

The monetary policy meeting by the FOMC, scheduled for Wednesday, is more likely to become a non-event, as it isn't followed by the Fed Chair's press conference and market has already funneled down the speculations favoring the Fed's interest rate lift-off during the current meeting. However, an indication favoring the rate hike during 2015, in the FOMC statement, can continue building the recent up-move by the US Dollar.

Other than the top-tier events, like GDP and FOMC, Monday's US New Home Sales, monthly readings of Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence, scheduled for Tuesday, Thursday's Pending Home Sales and the Chicago PMI, scheduled to be released on Friday, are some other numbers that could help determine near-term USD moves. While New Home Sales signal a bit of weakness into the US housing market with 546K consensus against 552K prior, the Pending Home Sales are expected to erase prior declines of -1.4% with a +1.1% gain. Further, Durable Goods Orders may again print a negative -1.1% mark compared to -2.3% downwardly revised prior; though, Core reading is expected to be at 0.0% versus -0.2% previous mark. Moreover, official reading of Consumer Confidence is likely remaining near the recent highs of 103.00 with 102.5 forecast and Chicago PMI may head towards 50.00 level with 49.5 mark against the 48.7 reading registered previously. With the mixed expected outcomes from the US economic readings, chances are higher, considering the recent US optimism, that positive numbers of Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders may help the greenback extend its on-going up-move.

EU Inflation To Become Euro Traders' Yardstick While UK GDP Will Decide GBP Moves

Even if the ECB President recently favored monetary policy easing, his words were more diplomatic as he said the action can only be finalized after December review; hence, Thursday's Preliminary reading of German CPI and Flash reading of EU Inflation, scheduled for Friday, could provide meaningful information to determine EUR trend. While German CPI is expected to continue printing negative readings, with -0.1% mark against -0.2% prior, the EU CPI is likely reversing its prior -0.1% declines with 0.0% mark. Should the actual EU CPI matches forecast, chances of Euro witnessing a bit of pullback can't be denied; however, another negative inflation reading could strengthen the recent EUR bears favoring QE extension and a plunge of regional currency

Off-late comments from BoE policy makers have been dovish and affected the GBP in a negative way; however, Preliminary reading of Q3 2015 UK GDP, scheduled for Tuesday, becomes an important indicator to gauge Britain's strength. The forecasts favor a bit of slowdown in the growth number to 0.6% from 0.7%. Hence, an actual release either matching or printing a lower number could confirm that the policy makers are right in their public comments favoring the loose monetary policy, indicating further declines by the GBP.

Bank Of Japan May Direct JPY Trend

Since last few months, the JPY has been trading volatile against majority of its counterparts, mainly due to its safe haven status and lack of any policy hints by the Bank of Japan. However, the same is less likely to continue going forward as speculations concerning the need of additional monetary easing, backed by comments from some of the BoJ policy makers, have gained momentum off-late and this week's monetary policy meeting by the Japanese Central bank, on Friday, will be crucial to determine the strength of JPY. Considering downbeat Japanese economics, market expectations signal that the Bank of Japan will revise down its inflation and growth outlook, in its bi-annual BoJ outlook report, and may hint for the need of further monetary easing. Should the Japanese central bank matches consensus and cut down its economic forecasts, coupled with favoring the need of change in monetary policy, chances of JPY witnessing a sharp decline can't be avoided.However, no change in the economic expectations by the central bank and/or a hawkish tone to keep supporting existing monetary policy could further accelerate the JPY advance.

Economic Details Affecting Antipodeans, namely AUD, CAD and NZD

Commodity currencies have recently been positive due to a bounce in commodity prices; however, fresh move by the China, to cut down its interest rate for the fifth time this year, pumped renewed selling pressure that could be magnified depending upon the scheduled economic releases from Australia, New-Zealand and Canada. Amongst them, Tuesday's New-Zealand Trade Balance and monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of New-Zealand (RBNZ), scheduled for Wednesday, becomes important to forecast NZD moves while AUD traders should watch for Australian CPI andPPI, to be released on Wednesday and Friday respectively. Moreover, Friday's Canadian GDP, together with the Crude momentum are likely cues that the CAD traders should pick.

Although, the RBNZ isn't expected to alter its current monetary policy, dovish comments in a rate statement, considering weaker dairy prices, could magnify the NZD downside while higher Trade Deficit, than the -822M expected and -1035M prior, can become a trigger for the NZD decline. Further, Australian Inflation numbers, namely CPI and PPI, are more likely to miss the expectations favoring no change in the prior 0.7% CPI and 0.3% PPI, signaling extended AUD downside. Moreover, the Canadian economy is expected to witness another weaker GDP reading, to 0.1% versus 0.3% prior, and can open room for the further southward journey by the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

Admiral Markets · Nov 3, 2015

Will NFP Help The US Dollar?

Last week's FOMC statement supported the December rate hike speculation and strengthened the US Dollar through mid-week; however, slower than expected GDP growth, coupled with weaker Personal Spending details, erased the greenback's rise and pulled it towards the negative weekly closing. The Euro region currency registered considerable gains during later weekdays as ECB President, Mario Draghi, tamed chances of further monetary stimulus announcement during December meeting in his interview with Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore, published on Saturday. Moving on, the JPY strengthened against majority of its counterparts after BoJ refrained from adding further stimulus and the central bank Governor seemed hawkish even after downgrading the inflation forecast while the commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, remained volatile due to aftershocks of Chinese rate cut and mixed domestic cues.

During the current week, which started with another downbeat reading of Chinese Manufacturing PMI, many important events/releases are scheduled for publish that can continue fueling the Forex moves. However, labor market details from the US, Canada and New-Zealand, Quarterly Inflation Report by the Bank of England (BoE), Fed Chair's Testimony and the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are likely to gain major market attention. Moreover, headline PMIs and Manufacturing Production releases from UK together with Trade Balance details from Australia, US and Canada are some of the second-tier economics that could keep global financial market players busy throughout the present week.

All Eyes On US Job Details

Even if the recent US economics failed to impress the USD bulls, monthly reading of US labor market numbers, mainly the Non-farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate, will provide guidance to the greenback moves as further improvement in job details can continue favoring the FOMC statement that the December rate hike is still on table.

As one can easily point out from the aforementioned chart, the US Non-farm Payrolls have been above 200K mark for most of the last two years; however, recent readings during the month of September and October have been disappointing as the last month NFP plunged to the six months' lows. On the contrary, the unemployment rate has been steady around more than seven year's low of 5.1%. The US Bureau for Labor Statistics is scheduled for releasing the October month job details, including Average Hourly Earnings, Non-farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate, on Friday while theADP Non-Farm Employment Change, an early signal to determine government job details, is to be released on Wednesday. Forecasts relating to the ADP number point a weaker reading of 183K against 200K prior; however, NFP consensus says that the workforce engagement is improved from its previous 142K to 179K level and Unemployment Rate is expected to remain stable around 5.1% mark.

With the expected rise in NFP and a low level of Unemployment Rate, coupled with recent signals from the Fed favoring December rate hike, a better job outlook will provide fresh life to the speculators who expect Fed's first interest rate lift since 2006 during December and could trigger the US Dollar rally.

In addition to the Friday's labor market numbers, Fed Chair's Testimony on bank regulation before the House Financial Services Committee, scheduled for Wednesday, becomes another important US event. Although the central banker isn't scheduled to utter on the matters relating to Fed's next move, question-answer session by the committee may cause the Federal Reserve head to speak about something that can hint for future monetary policy of the US central bank and can help the market players determine the USD moves. Should the bank chief points to the economic improvement and a December rate hike, as she has been doing quite off-late, chances of the USD up-move can't be denied.

Moreover, monthly readings of ISM Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders and Trade Balance, coupled with the weekly Jobless Claims, are some additional US data points that can better help in forecasting near-term USD moves. Considering recent decline in global manufacturing, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Monday release, is expected to slow-down a bit to 50.00 mark against its 50.2 prior; however, Tuesday's Factory Orders are likely to cut short its previous -1.7% mark with -0.8% number and can help the USD manage its firmness. Further, Trade Balance numbers, scheduled to be released on Wednesday, indicates considerable decline in deficit to -42.7B from its -48.3B previous month reading while Thursday's weekly Jobless Claims can test the five week high of 263K versus 260K prior week's mark.

No Major Releases From Europe While UK PMIs and BoE To Direct GBP Moves

Monthly reading of German Factory Orders, scheduled for Thursday, becomes the only important announcement scheduled during the week from Europe that can help foresee EUR moves. As the German gauge of factory purchases is expected to reverse prior two month's decline with 1.1% gain, an actual figure matching with/or surpassing the consensus can add strength into the Euro.

Slew of headline UK PMIs triggered by the Monday's Manufacturing PMI that rallied to the highest levels in more than a year and helped the GBP advance. However, PMIs relating to Construction and Services, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, coupled with the Friday'sManufacturing Production, are some data points that can provide better sources of information to determine near-term GBP trend. While the Construction PMI is likely to adjust a bit from its seven month's high of 59.9 to 58.9, the Services PMI, core to the UK economy, may improve to 54.6 as compared to its 53.3 prior. Moreover, consensus relating to the Manufacturing Production points slightly slower growth of manufacturing into the Britain with 0.4% mark versus 0.5% prior. As major data points favor an improvement in UK economy, chances of the GBP to witness up-move are much higher should the actual numbers meet consensus.

Thursday becomes an important day for the GBP traders as Bank of England is scheduled to fuel the Forex market during the same day with its lined up important events. The central bank is to hold itsmonetary policy meeting and release the minutes for the same, alike recent MPC meetings, together with publishing the important Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) that will be followed by apress conference from BoE Governor.

Although, the UK central bank isn't likely to alter its monetary policy during the current meeting and there is only one expected vote, out of total nine, favoring the change in Official Bank Rate, details of the QIR and speech of BoE Governor will direct the GBP moves as the central bankers is scheduled to present final economic forecasts for 2015. The Bank of England revised down its near-term inflation forecast during its previous QIR in August and said that the plunge in commodity prices can negatively affect the inflation reading; however, the central bank moved forth while expecting a 2.8% UK GDP growth in 2015 as compared to a projection of 2.5% in May.

Considering the deflation scenario of the UK, together with dip in Core CPI and a weaker GDP number, chances of the Bank of England to spread some dovish message are higher. However, the recent decline in inflation number was very much expected and developments in labor market details favor optimistic forecasts relating to economic growth and inflation. Hence, details of the report, coupled with the tone of BoE Governor, should be closely examined to determine near-term GBP moves. Should the Governor favors an interest rate hike in 2016 and/or the QIR prints some optimistic forecasts, chances of the GBP rally becomes brighter.

Aussie Traders Should Take Cues From RBA

Recent declines in Iron-Ore prices, Australia's main export, coupled with soft inflation numbers causes the market players to examine details of monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) scheduled for Tuesday, to determine further AUD moves. Moreover, monthly details of Retail Sales and Trade Balance, up for publishing on Wednesday, can provide additional information to base AUD trades on.

The RBA is expected to stand pat on its five month old stop on altering the monetary policy and the Retail Sales are also likely to grow at the same 0.4% pace; though, the trade balance can print a cut in deficit to -2.85B versus its -3.10B prior. Even if the central bank is likely to carry its five month old monetary policy and the trade numbers are also indicating towards AUD strength, economic numbers from China, its main consumer, have continued spreading global pessimism and can become a reason for the RBA to utter some dovish words for the economy if not changing the monetary policy. Hence, either a word of caution from the Australia's central bank and/or a change in monetary policy is expected to provide further weakness into the AUD.

Details From The Rest Of The Globe

Other than the headline numbers/events from the US, UK and Australia, which are likely to govern major part of this week's moves, labor market numbers from New-Zealand and Canada, coupled with the Canadian Trade Balance, are some other details that become important to consider during the current week.

Canadian Trade Balance have continued running into deficit and plunged to the lowest levels in three months during its October release while the Employment Change rallied to the four month's high of 12.1K. Moreover, the Unemployment rate also ticked up to the highest level in more than a year in its previous mark. As the data points favor mixed economic outlook, aggression of Unemployment Rate and a higher trade deficit may provide further weakness to the Canadian Dollar (CAD); though, higher Employment Change can help limiting the CAD declines.

New-Zealand labor market details, namely Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, are scheduled for release on Wednesday and can help forecast NZD moves. While the Unemployment rate is expected to print the highest levels since May 2014, to 6.0% from 5.9% prior, the quarterly Employment Change bears the positive consensus of marking the 0.4% growth versus 0.3% prior.With the recent dip in dairy prices, coupled with Chinese pessimism, weaker labor market numbers could magnify the NZD downside.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

Admiral Markets · Nov 10, 2015

Handful of Economic Releases To Continue Fueling Forex Volatility

Following two months of dismal readings, Friday's upbeat US job numbers strengthened speculations that the Federal Reserve will lift its benchmark interest-rate during December meeting, fueling the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) towards highest levels in more than six months, needless to mention about the weekly gain. The Euro, left with no major releases, gave-up some of its recent gains as market players kept focusing more on the USD strength while news that the European Commission downgraded euro-area growth and inflation outlook for 2016 provided additional reason to the Euro bears to sell the regional currency. Further, the GBP witnessed considerable downside as BoE, via its Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR), lowered down the inflation and growth forecasts and dovish comments from the central bank Governor caused additional weakness into the Pound. Moreover, the AUD remained stronger against majority of its counterparts, except the USD, as the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) refrained from interest rate cut while the JPY was on southward journey due to lack of major economic releases and improvement in risk sentiment that cut down the Japanese Yen's demand.

Even if some of the crucial data-points have been released last week, financial stability report from the RBNZ, Australian and UK job details, coupled with EU Flash GDP and US Retail Sales and PPI, could continue fueling the Forex moves during the current week. Let's discuss them in detail.

US Retail Sales Can Help USD Extend Its Recent Up-Move

With the recent labor market details renewing speculations concerning Federal Reserve's interest-rate lift-off in December, providing considerable USD strength, upcoming data-points from the US are likely to be examined closely in order to foresee near-term moves of the greenback. However, the US economy has fewer economic details to publish during the week, except on Friday when monthly details of Retail Sales, PPI and the Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment will help forecast the USD moves.

Looking at the previous details of consumer centric data, including Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment, the Retail Sales grew marginally, with only 0.1% gain, during the month of October and the Consumer Sentiment marked a revised down 90.00 number while the Core Retail Sales contracted with -0.3% mark. Moreover, the PPI plunged negative with -0.5% print. Forecasts relating to the current statistics favor a three month high Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment to 0.3% growth rate and 91.3 print respectively while the PPI and Core Retail Sales are expected to reverse their prior declines with 0.2% and 0.4% respective gains.

Recent improvements in US data points, coupled with hawkish tone of some of the FOMC members, during their public appearances, may get validated boost should the US consumer centric details print positive numbers. However, disappointment from the scheduled economic data-points may trigger USD pullback; though, overall greenback strength can't be negated and December rate hike speculation may remain intact unless these numbers register drastic declines.

UK Labor Market Details To Get Major Attention

Pessimistic outcome of the BoE's QIR have got magnified impacts as the UK central bank was perceived to be another interest rate hike contestant, after the Fed, and a passive outcome via BoE disappointed the GBP bulls. However, monthly readings of UK job market, scheduled for Wednesday, could renew the Pound strength if they print upbeat numbers.

UK Labor Market Details

Looking at the aforementioned chart, the UK Unemployment Rate have been going south since 2012 and is currently near the record lows of 5.4%; however, the Claimant Counts are increasing off-late, causing a worry for the UK policy makers to determine the strength job market. Moreover, theAverage Earning is also on the northwards move, signaling an increased income and an expected rise in the inflation that in-turn could help the UK MPC members to shift from their recent dovish words towards the optimistic scenario and a higher interest rate in future.

In its latest print the Unemployment rate dipped to 5.4% lows while the Claimant Count Change rose to three months high to 4.6K and the Average earnings rallied by 3.0%. The current consensus favors an increase in earnings, to 3.2%, the highest in four months, and a cut in Claimant Count to 1.6K while the Unemployment rate is expected to remain static at 5.4%.

Should the monthly details of UK job numbers print downbeat readings, chances of monetary policy easing, rather than the interest rate hike, gets strengthened, providing noticeable damages to the UK currency. Although, strong labor market numbers, which become more likely, can erase recent declines of the GBP.

EU GDP Can Clear Near-Term EUR Trend

Even if the ECB President, during his press conference following recent monetary policy meeting, favored chances of additional monetary easing, Q3 2015 GDP growth numbers from EU and Germany, scheduled for release on Friday, become important to determine near-term EUR strength as strong economic growth may not need extra loose monetary policy and can help the regional currency recover its recent losses.

Preliminary numbers of Q3 2015 GDP signals that the German economic growth has been slowed down with 0.3% gain from 0.4% prior while the EU GDP growth remained static near the upwardly revised 0.4% mark. Should these growth numbers favor an optimistic scenario, chances of QE extension during December meeting weakens, favoring strong EUR. However, disappointing numbers could magnify the ECB President's dovish statement relating to the need of further monetary easing and can provide considerable downside to the Euro.

Chinese Industrial Production and Inflation Numbers, RBNZ and Australian Job Details Are The Rest To Observe

Although China has been flashing red economic signals off-late, spreading more pessimism amongst the global industrial players and commodity basket, monthly details of Industrial Production and Inflation numbers, namely CPI and PPI, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, become important to determine the strength of world's largest industrial player. While the CPI is expected to mark 1.5% against 1.6% prior and the PPI may register contraction of -5.9%, same as previous reading, the Industrial Production can increase at a bit faster rate of 5.8% against 5.7% prior. Should the Industrial Production register higher growth rate and inflation readings mark improvements, commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD can have a reason to celebrate; however, continued deterioration by the Chinese economics favor chances of further monetary easing by the Chinese central bank, providing another setback to AUD, NZD and CAD.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of New-Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to release its bi-annual Financial Stability Report where in the central bank would provide insights of inflation, growth, and other economic conditions from their perspective. The announcement will be followed by the press conference of the RBNZ Governor.

Considering the recent declines in daily prices, coupled with downbeat job numbers and Chinese pessimism, the central bank is more likely to convey pessimistic messages, favoring further NZD declines; however, an upbeat economic view, coupled with optimistic tone of the central bank Governor, can reimburse some of the recent losses of the New-Zealand Dollar.

Australian Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to announce monthly details of job markets on Thursday. Key labor market indicators, namely Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, are showing signs of improvement from their previous releases. The Employment Change is expected to bounce from its -5.1K mark with +14.8K number while the Unemployment Rate is likely remaining stagnant at its 6.2% level. After consecutive resistance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut their benchmark interest-rate, coupled with brighter economic expectations, set of upbeat job numbers can provide noticeable strength to the Australian Dollar (AUD); however, Chinese pessimism could restrict excessive gains of the Aussie, as it is nicknamed.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

Fundamental Analysis by Admiral Markets

Admiral Markets

AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

Admiral Markets

AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

Admiral Markets

AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

Admiral Markets

AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

Admiral Markets

AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

Admiral Markets

AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

Admiral Markets

AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

Admiral Markets

AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

Admiral Markets

AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

Admiral Markets

AdmiralMarkets.com Representative

Similar threads

Share this page