Gold Daily Video, 05 February, 2016

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Next upside target on gold is 1180 - Yearly Pivot:




The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[leo4fx]

Hi Sive,
Looking at the 20 year gold chart in AUD compairing it with the USD ( https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do )
Is it correct to assume a massive collapse of the Aussie once they break the 1776 AUD/oz ?

 

[vegasvic]

Thanks for the gold trade which is proving very profitable. I only have a micro account but it is a real treat to finally see it improve.
Vic Smalley
vegasvic

 

[Sive Morten]

Is it correct to assume a massive collapse of the Aussie once they break the 1776 AUD/oz ?

Hi Leo,
not necessary this will be AUD collapse by many reasons. First is AUD is Gold currency, you should not it. Thus, it is really hardly possible that Gold will grow while AUD will drop.
Here we could meet some technical tricks, because any asset is mutual trading to USD. Say, gold trades for USD, AUD is to USD pair etc...
That's being said, if gold will rise it could happen as due gold itself as dollar weakness. In this case As gold as AUD could rise (to USD). If gold will climb independently - it could rise in relation to AUD itself but in this case AUD also will rise to USD...
So, it's a bit confused situation but you probably get it...

 

[leo4fx]

Hi Sive,

Thanks for your insight, good to remind my that Australia is a net exporter of the gold. So a higher USD/gold price would drive demand for the Aussie up.

I just found this on the WSJ : Australia Trade Deficit Widens as Crucial Commodities Slide
Agricultural and iron-ore prices have led the decline in export value
http://www.wsj.com/articles/australia-trade-deficit-widens-sharply-1454462738

So despite the higher goldprices there are many concerns for the AUDUSD pair. It is on my watch list