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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee​

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Tuesday, February 7th

The AUD/USD loses its positions, gained on the back of RBA’s decision. Today, as it was expected, the RBA left its interest rate unchanged, while providing the market with neutral stance on the interest rates outlook. However, RBA members sounded more optimistic, stressing that Australian economy prospects remain positive in wake of improvements in the global economy. On the other hand, the pair lost its upside momentum and has reversed all its earlier gained positions, as returning demand for the US currency combined with sharp increase in Chinese iron-ore stockpiles are negatively influencing the pair. Looking ahead, traders will continue digesting recent events, while JOLTs Job Openings report will bring fresh directional impetus to the pair.

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Wednesday, February 8th

The dollar/yen pair is showing pretty volatile trades this Wednesday on the back of recent news from the BoJ. The pair reached its maximums in Asia at 112.52 spot, as the Bank of Japan announced about expansion of its bond buying program. However, pair’s upside rally was short lived, as plenty of offers, based on dollar’s weakness, absorbed the demand and the pair dropped to its overnight lows, marked at 112.04. Currently the pair is trading around the level of 112.40, as the US currency has regained its bid tone, while the market stays influenced by recent headlines related to CB of Japan. During this day the pair will continue to trace USD price dynamics and global RO-RO trend amid data-quiet Wednesday’s docket.

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Thursday, February 9th

The NZD/USD pair reacted negatively on the RBNZ interest rate decision, losing for more than a cent since pre-decision region. As it was widely expected the RBNZ left its interest rate unchanged on its meeting, witnessed in Asia, however, following comments of RBNZ Governor G.Wheeler have sent the pair to refresh its 3-week lows below the level 0.72. G.Wheeler stressed that the Bank won’t increase its rate until inflation reaches its target level, so most likely interest rate will continue to stay low, thereby crashing market’s expectations of further rate hikes. Currently the pair is trading within striking distance of its recent lows, trying to consolidate in the region of 0.72. Nothing else is scheduled in data calendar for today, so USD price dynamics will continue to drive the pair during this Thursday.

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Friday, February 10th

The dollar/yen pair is experiencing pretty volatile trades lately, as various factors are pushing the pair in north direction at the end of this week. Ongoing rally, triggered by recent US President’s talks of upcoming tax reforms, that could be implemented over next weeks is still supporting the greenback across the market. Moreover, recent BOJ announcement of expanding its bond purchases is also supporting the pair last few days. And finally, fresh wave of risk-on sentiments, triggered by significant surplus in China’s Trade balance coupled with Trump’s talks over the tax cuts, is also benefiting to the pair today. Currently the pair is trading in the around 113.70 handle, having slowed down its massive rally from yesterday’s lows, marked at 111.72 spot, as traders are getting cautious ahead of US-Japan summit, that will be closely watched for next leg of directional move. Nothing else left in this week’s docket, so the pair will continue following broad RO-RO trend during this Friday.

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Tuesday, February 14th

The EUR/USD pair retreats from session’s peaks, marked at 1.0633 spot, however, still remaining positive. Seems that euro’s recovery has run out of steam, as poor flash German GDP, released in early European trading session, is limiting pair’s further upside traction. However, cautious sentiments are starting to gather pace among investors ahead of the upcoming testimony by Chief J.Yellen before the Senate Banking Committee, slightly supporting the common currency. Looking ahead, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, preliminary GDP from Eurozone and US PPI will also grab attention during this trading session.

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Wednesday, February 15th

Once again the EUR/USD pair has come under bearish pressure after brief recovery during Asian trades, as Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony is still suppressing the market. Yesterday during the Q&A session at Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen said that it would be reasonable to hike rates in upcoming months, however, noting that she cannot say which month would be the most appropriate for next rate increase. Moreover, Yellen’s hawkish outlook restored confidence on US economic growth prospects under D.Trump’s presidency. Currently the main currency pair is trading around the level 1.0550, having lost a smile in early Europe. Looking ahead, another busy NA session is approaching the market, while EU docket contains only trade data, which most likely won’t have any impact on the pair.

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Thursday, February 16th

The EUR/USD bounced off its 5-week lows yesterday, posted at 1.0521 spot, and now is extending its recovery above the level 1.06, despite stronger-than-expected set of macro data from the US economy. Greenback’s bulls lost its upside momentum yesterday, as Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided the market with cautious comments during her second testimony, stressing that economic indicators are somewhat disappointing lately, thereby forcing the US dollar to retreat vs. basket of its main competitors. However, currently the main currency pair is trading around 1.0610 level, awaiting for ECB monetary policy meeting minutes for the next leg of directional move, while data from the US housing market and Philly Fed manufacturing index will also be monitored for fresh trading opportunities in NA session.

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Friday, February 17th

The EUR/USD pair corrects lower toward 1.0640 level after brief consolidation phase, witnessed during Asia. The main currency pair has lost its upside momentum after significant bullish run from its Wednesday's multi-week lows. However, the dollar remains weak, as the currency market continues to digest recent dovish speech by Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen, who showed disappointment about US economic results. And even yesterday’s batch of positive macroeconomic releases was unable to break dollar’s bearish rally. Moreover, yesterday D.Trump during his speech once again failed in providing any clarity on his further economic and political steps, thereby discouraging traders from opening long-dollar bets. Currently the pair is trading within striking distance of its recent lows, following global markets sentiments, in wake of absolutely empty economic calendar this Friday.


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Monday, February 20th

The euro failed several attempts to recover against its American peer in Asia and now is trading just a few pips above the level 1.06. Today slightly better sentiments around the US currency are weighing the pair, capping EUR/USD near 1.0615 level and driving it away from its overnight peaks, marked at 1.0633 spot. Moreover, positive German PPI data, seen in early european session, also couldn’t bring any bullish impetus to the pair. At the start of this week economic calendar remains absolutely empty, while the US market will stay closed today in observance of Presidents' Day, thereby leaving the pair at the mercy of USD price dynamics.

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Tuesday, February 21st


The EUR/USD pair dipped back below the level of 1.06 in Asia, refreshing its five-day lows at 1.0542 level. Today the common currency came under strong selling pressure, as worries around Greece crisis are gathering a pace. Yesterday Greece and euro zone resumed discussion over aid payments to support Greek economy. Moreover, pre-election opinion poll in France showed that National Front leader Marin Le Pen is pulling into the lead with 27% of votes, additionally weighing the pair. Furthermore, euro bulls ignored better-than-expected flash German Manufacturing PMI data, published this morning, bringing no relief to the common currency. Today the US docket will keep silence for the second session in a row with only couple of Fedspeaks to show in NA session, so the pair will continue to follow global market’s trend during this Tuesday.

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