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Wednesday, March 8th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bearish slide for the third session in a row, refreshing this week’s lows at 1.0551 spot, in wake of broadly higher the US dollar. However, any sharp movements are unlikely today, as cautious sentiments are gathering pace in wake of upcoming ECB Interest Rate Decision, that is due tomorrow. On the other hand, expectedly that the ECB will leave its rate unchanged, while probability of March Fed rate hike has increased up to 90%. Such divergence between Fed’s and ECB’s monetary policies is additionally weighing the pair. Moreover, recent opinion polls in France showed that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen continues to hold leading positions in presidential elections, thereby intensifying concerns around the EUR. Today traders’ attention will be focused on ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, while USD price dynamics and developments surrounding French elections will continue to drive the pair this Wednesday.

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Thursday, March 9th

The EUR/USD pair bounced off its recent lows, marked at 1.0525 spot in early Europe, and now is trading around mid-point of 1.05. The major currency pair is staying directionless, as traders are remaining in anticipation of key risk event of this day – the ECB monetary policy decision, with following ECB President M.Draghi’s conference. Expected that the ECB will keep its rate and QE program unchanged, while any monetary policy outlook improvements, considering growth of inflation and solid manufacturing data, will be able to determine next legs of directional move for the pair. Moreover, today besides ECB meeting, the EU Summit will also take place, where main themes for the discussion will be Greece and Brexit.

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Friday, March 10th

The EUR/USD remains firmer today on yesterday’s M.Draghi’s talks. Yesterday as it was widely expected the ECB left its interest rate unchanged, while following ECB President M.Draghi’s comments during his Press Conference appeared less dovish, strongly supporting the euro across the board. Draghi noted that he does not see any need of further monetary policy easing, thereby hinting on recovery of the Eurozone economy. Moreover, softer sentiments around the US dollar in wake of profit-taking actions is also supporting the pair today. However, further gains remain capped amid broad cautious sentiments ahead of key event of this Friday – NFP. However, now immediate focus remains on second round of the EU summit, that will be able to provide the market with fresh clues on Brexit and developments around Greek economy.

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Monday, March 13th

The EUR/USD pair eases from its daily highs, marked above the level of 1.07, after significant rally, performed despite better than expected Friday’s jobs report. Dollar’s weakness can be explained by the fact that market participants had already priced in positive numbers of NFP, while hourly wages came out below estimates. On the other hand, further pair’s growth looks fragile, as better-than-expected Payrolls once again showed green light for March Fed rate hike. Moreover, increased odds for M.Le Pen’s win at French election race are weighing the common currency, as Le Pen’s win in elections might lead to France’s exit from the EU. Today all eyes will be focused on ECB President M.Draghi’s speech, while main risk event of this week remains the FOMC decision, scheduled on Wednesday.

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Wednesday, March 15th

The pound performs huge swings vs. its American counterpart at the opening of European trades for the second day in a row, that can’t be explained by any fundamental catalysts. Yesterday around the same time the GBP/USD pair fell for about 80 pip, refreshing its two-month lows, while today the pair performed the opposite swing, gaining more than a dollar and refreshing its seven-day highs at 1.2255 level. The only explanation of such big moves could be that someone opened very large order in lowered liquidity conditions in a transitional moment, when the market was shifting from Asian session to European. However, further gains are restricted as market’s participants remain cautious ahead today’s FOMC meeting. On the other hand, the pound finds extra support from the latest news, that UK PM T.May is ready to trigger Article 50 by the end of this month, as it was planned previously. Moreover, recent opinion polls showed that 57% of Scots want to remain in the UK, that is also positively affecting the pair. Today all eyes will be focused on FOMC Interest rate decision, while UK data from labor market and bloc of US reports will also be able to bring some short-term trading opportunities to investors during this Wednesday.

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Thursday, March 16th

The EUR/USD pair is retreating from its post-FOMC 5-week highs, marked on Wednesday at 1.0746 level. Yesterday the dollar fell sharply against basket of its main competitors, as market’s participants remained unimpressed by neutral stance from the FOMC at its meeting. By the time of the announcement of meeting results investors had already priced in Fed rate hike, while committee left its economic projection steady, thereby lifting the pair for more than 100 pips. Moreover, rumors, appeared due to dovish economic statement, that the Fed will increase its interest rate only once this year instead of two hikes, discussed previously, are additionally weighing the dollar across the board. Today the pair will continue to retreat from its recent tops, as the dollar is correcting higher vs. its main competitors and traders are performing profit-taking actions after major rally, seen yesterday, while the US economic calendar will also be able to bring some impact to the pair later during NY trades.

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Friday, March 17th

The EUR/USD pair stepped away from its 6-week highs, posted at 1.0782 mark this morning, however, is still remaining firmer at the end of this week. Yesterday the pair caught another wave of bids, as market reacted in favour of EUR on far-right candidate G.Wilder’s failure on Dutch presidential election race, thereby easing somewhat political concerns surrounding the Eurozone. Moreover, the pair received additional bullish momentum on the back of hawkish comments from the ECB member E.Nowotny, who noted that the EU Bank is also ready for further monetary policy tightening, but it may differ from Fed measures. Today after highly volatile week the economic calendar remains silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market’s sentiments, driven by recent crucial events.

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Monday, March 20th

The EUR/USD pair remains positive at the start of this week amid broadly based greenback’s sell-off. The pair regains its region of five-week highs, reached during last trading session at 1.0782 spot, as the US currency is still broadly weakened by recent less hawkish Fed’s outlook on its interest rate. Moreover, news that E.Macron keeps leading in the French election race are also supporting the common currency. Nothing much is scheduled in data calendar from both sides, so USD price dynamics will remain as a key driver for the EUR/USD at the start of this week.

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Tuesday, March 21st

The EUR/USD pair met fresh bids in Asian trading session on news that centrist E.Macron has strengthened its leading positions in French election race. Today it became known that E.Macron won the first Presidential debates, strongly outperforming far-right candidate M.Le Pen. This news reduced fears around M.Le Pen’s promises of Frexit and bringing back French franc in case of her victory in the elections. Today EU data calendar remains absolutely empty, while US docket contains only secondary data releases, so the pair will continue to follow global market’s trend, based on recent economic and political events from both sides.

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Wednesday, March 22nd

The EUR/USD pair keeps its positive mood on Wednesday, staying in the region of 1.08. The euro continues to benefit from various opinion polls, that are predicting E.Macron’s win at French election race, outperforming its far-right anti-EU competitor M.Le Pen. Moreover, the euro is getting additional support from risk-off market profile, allowing the pair to refresh its daily tops at 1.0818. Looking ahead, today only data from the US housing market will be able bring some impetus to the pair, so broad risk-off moods will continue to drive the market this Wednesday.

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