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Friday, April 7th

This morning the USD/JPY pair fell to its nearly 2-week lows in wake of another sharp spike of risk aversion across the market. Today it became known that US President D.Trump ordered to strike Syrian airbase in response to Syria's use of chemical weapons against civilians. In his official statement D.Trump called all civilized nations to seek for the end of slaughter and bloodshed in Syria. This crucial news triggered huge wave of risk-off sentiments, sending the pair to refresh its lows at 110.13, which were last seen only last Monday. At this moment the pair has managed to correct its positions, recovering part of its losses, as the dust around geopolitical tensions is slowly settling down, however, cautious state of the market will continue to cheer up safe-haven assets, such as the yen, ahead of crucial NFP report and the second round of the US-China Summit, which outcome has the potential to trigger a fresh wave of volatility across markets.

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Monday, April 10th

The EUR/USD pair remains consolidative at the start of this week, keeping its positions within striking distance of its monthly lows, posted this morning at 1.0570 spot. Today the pair continues to extend its bearish bias, despite worse-then-expected NFP, seen last Friday, as general US Unemployment Rate ticked lower, showing that situation on the US labor market is not so bad, thereby broadly supporting US bulls. Moreover, improved risk-on sentiments, triggered by positive outcome of US-China Summit, where both leaders indicated on strong relationships between two largest economies of the world, are also providing some negative pressure on the pair at the start of this week. Today only Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech will be able to bring some short-term trading opportunities, so the pair will keep tracing global market’s trend for any further directional improvements.

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Tuesday, April 11th

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating its yesterday’s minor decline just a few pips below the 1.06 level, as US bulls remained unimpressed by recent J.Yellen’s speech. Last night, Fed Chairwoman delivered her speech, in which she once again noted, that it will be appropriate to raise rates in near future, but terms of further rate-hikes are highly dependent on economic performances. Moreover, renewed risk-aversion sentiments are providing some support to the common currency, limiting pair’s further losses. Now all traders’ attention is focused on German ZEW Economic Sentiment that is due next ahead of US JOLTs Job Openings, which both will be able to bring short-term impetus on the pair during this trading session.

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Wednesday, April 12th

The EUR/USD pair came out of its flat corridor, that was witnessed in Asian, and now is navigating in North direction, supported by strong risk aversion sentiments. Broad risk-off moods remain lately as a key driver across the market amid ongoing geopolitical concern, that is fueled by warn of North Korea of a nuclear strike if the US will continue to provoke it and readiness of the US for an additional airstrike if Syria once again uses chemical weapons on civilians. Moreover, the US dollar’s retreat against its main competitors is also collaborating with pair’s bullish momentum this Wednesday. Nothing important is scheduled in data calendar for this trading session, so the major currency pair will continue to get influenced by risk trends during the day ahead.

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Thursday, April 13th

The EUR/USD pair came out of its brief consolidation phase, easing part of its yesterday’s significant gains, as the greenback is attempting to recover some of its positions in early Europe. Yesterday the US currency came under strong selling pressure, following interview with the US president, who said the dollar is “too strong”, that could hurt the economy. Moreover, D.Trump also added the he is still undecided on reappointment of J.Yellen as the Fed chief. Looking ahead, today the pair will keep trading with upbeat bias, as ongoing risk-off trend, backed by political tensions over North Korea and upcoming French final election round, will continue to underpin the common currency. Besides, the US docket will also be able to bring some volatility on the market, as traders now await for another portion of macroeconomic data, scheduled on NA session.

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Tuesday, April 18th

The EUR/USD pair remains relatively quiet at the first working day after four-day Easter holidays, trading in 15-pips narrow range of 1.0640-55. Seems that the pair is experiencing lack of momentum this Tuesday on the back of absolutely empty European data calendar. However, renewed risk-off trend, backed by cautious sentiments of RBA Meeting Minutes, and softness of the US dollar are providing some support to the pair lately. Looking ahead, today only the US data bloc, featuring Building Permits and few second tier data releases, will be able to bring some impact to the pair, however, latest headlines from French political field will also be closely watched, as we are getting closer to the first round of presidential election in France, scheduled on Sunday, 23rd.

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Wednesday, April 19th

Seems that pound’s bulls are feeling exhausted today after yesterday’s huge rally, based on fresh UK PM T.May’s announcement, that forced the GBP/USD pair to refresh its half-year highs just above 1.2900 level, that is almost 4 figures higher than Tuesday’s lows. Yesterday T.May made a statement regarding the potential call for snap elections on June 8th. The market took this announcement as an attempt by the prime minister to consolidate her positions, implying May’s confidence of a win in the election, that could give her a strong mandate to get a good negotiation deal over Brexit. Currently the major is trading around 1.2820 level down from its overnight highs, marked at 1.2858, as the pound corrects lower against its main competitors. Looking ahead, today amid lack of fresh fundamentals the market will stay closely watching for any further developments around the Brexit.


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Thursday, April 20th

The EUR/USD pair is trading on firm note this Thursday, extending its bullish momentum in European morning after relatively quiet Asia. Pair’s recent bullishness could be mainly attributed to fresh USD selling, as US bulls were unable to retain its yesterday recovered positions. However, further gains seem fragile in wake of growing cautiousness among market’s participants, as we are heading toward main risky event of this week - French elections, that are scheduled on Sunday, where all presidential candidates have almost equal chances to win the election race. Focus now shifts towards the US macro news that are due later in the NA session, which will provide fresh impetus to the pair, while EU data calendar will keep silence during Thursday’s trading session.

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Friday, April 21st

The EUR/USD pair came out of its brief consolidation phase, seen in Asia, and now is moving in north direction on the back of positive German data. Yesterday the pair was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and fell back to its comfort region, located near 1.07 spot, following positive remarks of US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who stated, that upcoming tax reforms will be implemented before the end of this year. However, the pair was able to gain a bullish momentum in early Europe in wake of upbeat results of flash German Manufacturing PMI. Meanwhile, the key risky event of this week for the pair remains Sunday’s first round of the French presidential election, that will determine pair’s further course. Seems that the market has already started to price in E.Macron’s win, who represents social liberal political party in France, thereby supporting the common currency. However, the gap between leader of this race (E.Macron) and his nearest opponent (M.Le Pen) remains very tight, so any headlines regarding further developments surrounding French presidential elections will be closely watched for any impact on the pair.


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Tuesday, April 25th

The EUR/USD pair was showing deadly quiet trades within 15-pips narrow range during the Asian session, consolidating Monday’s heavy gains near 1.0870 region. However, the pair broke out of its consolidation corridor in early Europe and now is navigating in north direction, as traders have started to price in E.Macron’s win on upcoming French presidential elections. Meanwhile, currently all investors’ attention shifts toward US president’s tax reform details, that will be announced on Wednesday, however, market’s participants believe that tomorrow’s announcement will once again provide lack of details on US economic taxation program, thereby lending no support to the greenback. Today only data reports from the US economy are scheduled in event calendar of this Tuesday, while nearest crucial events, such as tomorrow’s US president’s speech, Thursday’s ECB policy decision and French elections will continue to keep market cautious in the near future.

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