2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

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EURUSD Analysis: A Close Look at Key Fibonacci Levels​

Solid ECN – The EURUSD is trading around 1.0856, slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Interestingly, the bulls have managed to break above the bearish channel. However, Euro buyers must overcome the 1.0865 barrier for the uptrend to continue. The technical indicators support a bullish market, with the RSI hovering above 50 and the Awesome Oscillator bars turning green and rising above the signal line.

From a technical standpoint, the bulls will likely target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level if they can stabilize the price above 1.0865.

Conversely, if the EURUSD price falls below the 1.0796 mark, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci support, the decline that began in December 2023 will likely resume.​

 

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Bullish Outlook: GBP USD's Potential to Overcome Resistance​

Solid ECN – The pound sterling is stabilizing at around 1.267 against the U.S. dollar, above the 50 EMA but slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance. The GBPUSD daily chart shows that the pair has traded sideways since mid-November 2023.

While the technical indicators don't provide anything significant, from a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish. As long as the pair trades above the ascending trendline, depicted in blue, we expect the market to surpass the 1.270 barrier and aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance.

Conversely, the bearish channel will remain valid if the price falls below the ascending trendline. In this scenario, the next target for the sellers would be the 38.2% Fibonacci level.​

 

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AUDUSD Experiences Pullback from Fibonacci Level​

Solid ECN – The Australian dollar has crossed below the 0.648 resistance level against the U.S. Dollar. The pair bounced from the 78.6% Fibonacci support level and is trading at approximately 0.648 at the time of writing. Upon examining the AUDUSD 4-hour chart, we notice that the price is declining within the bearish channel. The technical indicators support the primary trend, with the RSI hovering below 50, and the Awesome Oscillator bars are red and below the signal line.

Currently, the pair is experiencing a pullback from the aforementioned Fibonacci level, which may extend to the 61.8% resistance level, followed by the upper band of the flag.

From a technical standpoint, the AUDUSD is in a bear market, and the downtrend will likely continue. The next target could be 0.6442, the lower low of February.

Conversely, the bear market should be considered invalid if the AUDUSD price rises above 0.6524, above the 50% Fibonacci resistance level.​

 

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U.S. Oil Technical Analysis​

Solid ECN – The U.S. oil price hovers around $78 in today's trading session. The black gold experienced a dip on March 1st after climbing as high as $80 per barrel. The Ichimoku cloud and the ascending trendline have prevented further declines, yet the bear market has not pushed the price down to as low as $77.7.

Technical indicators match the recent price decrease. The RSI indicator and the Awesome Oscillator have dipped below the signal line. From a technical standpoint, the bearish pressure may increase if the price falls below the ascending trendline, depicted in blue.

Conversely, given the primary bullish trend, if the ascending trendline holds steady, the oil price could see a new bullish wave aiming for March's highs, followed by the $82 mark.​

 

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Bullish USDJPY Awaits Breakout from Flag Pattern​

Solid ECN – The USDJPY pair is consolidating in a narrow area between the 149.5 support and 150.8 resistance. The RSI indicator shows divergence, which could be interpreted as a possible trend reversal. However, the decline halted, and the bears could not close below the 149.5 support. Consequently, the price stepped back into the range area.

From a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish as long as the pair trades inside the bullish flag and above the 23.6% Fibonacci support. For the uptrend to continue, the price should stabilize itself above 150.8. In this scenario, the pair will likely target the upper band of the flag.

Going short on USDJPY is not recommended, considering the robust bullish bias on the trend direction. Therefore, waiting for a buying opportunity is less risky than going short.​

 

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EURUSD Bulls Eyeing 1.0865 Resistance for Continued Uptrend​

The EURUSD currency pair is stabilizing itself outside the previously broken bearish channel. Currently, the pair trades slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level, around 1.086. For the uptrend to continue, the bulls must overcome the 1.0865 barrier. This resistance level has been holding the Euro from further growth against the U.S. Dollar since February 22.

Conversely, if the EURUSD price falls below the 50 EMA, the decline would likely target the 1.0796 support level, the 23.6% Fibonacci mark. If this scenario plays out, the sellers will find themselves in the bearish flag again, and the push will likely go deeper, aiming for the February low.​

 

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RSI Indicator Predicts GBPUSD Bullish Trend Continuation​

Solid ECN – The GBPUSD currency pair has climbed above 1.2709, exceeding the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. RSI and Awesome Oscillator support this rise, which suggests continuing the trend. The RSI has room to reach the 70 level, which can be interpreted as the market not being overbought yet. This indicates that the pound sterling will likely target the bullish channel's upper band against the U.S. dollar.

Please note that the bull market will remain valid if the pair trades above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.​

 

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AUDUSD Momentum: Indicators Point Towards Continued Uptrend​

The Awesome Oscillator shows optimistic signs of a trend reversal, having flipped above the signal line. Additionally, the RSI hovers above 50, another cue for continuing the uptick momentum from 0.6476. This minor area supports the bullish momentum. It is worth noting that the price needs to stay above this level for further growth. The bull market will likely aim for the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level in this scenario.

Conversely, the bullish outlook should be invalidated if the AUDUSD price dips below 0.6511.​

 

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Euro Hits New High Amid ECB Meeting Anticipation and Inflation Data Insights​

Solid ECN – The euro rose sharply to $1.085, reaching its highest point since February 1. This spike was due to investors focusing on the European Central Bank's (ECB) next meeting about monetary policy later this week. They are looking for new information on the ECB's plans. Although the bank is expected to keep interest rates high, market participants are eager to hear any updates to economic forecasts and hints from ECB President Christine Lagarde about when borrowing costs might start to decrease.

Recent data showed that inflation in the Eurozone dropped again last month, making it the second month of decline, with a rate of 2.6% in February—a bit higher than the predicted 2.5%. The fundamental inflation rate also fell to 3.1%, above the expected 2.9%. This information suggests that the ECB is careful before reducing monetary policy measures.​

 

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EURUSD Strategy: Bullish Channel and Fibonacci Support Insights​

Solid ECN — The EURUSD currency pair started the week slightly below Friday's closing price. At the time of writing, it is trading at about 1.094.

While the technical indicators provide mixed signals, the pair remains within the bullish channel and tested the 50% Fibonacci support on Friday. The primary trend is bullish, supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci level. As the trend suggests a bullish market, we recommend going long. If the price consolidates near the EMA 50, this could provide an excellent opportunity to join the bull market.

Conversely, the bullish outlook should be invalidated if the EURUSD price drops below 38.2%.​