2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

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Navigating Bitcoin's Consolidation Phase

The Bitcoin price dipped below the $65,796 resistance level, below the ascending trendline and the Ichimoku Cloud. Concurrently, the RSI indicator entered the overbought area, and as a result, the BTCUSD pair is testing the previously broken trendline at the time of writing.

From a technical standpoint, the bullish market has paused, and we are entering a consolidation phase likely to extend to the $68,000 resistance area.​

 

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Bearish Trend in AUD/USD: Key Indicators and Price Targets​

Solid ECN – The momentum of the Australian dollar against the U.S. Dollar has paused in today's trading session. As of this writing, the AUD/USD pair is testing the EMA 50 at about 0.651, which coincides with the Ichimoku Cloud.

The 4-hour chart has formed a Doji candlestick pattern, which could be interpreted as a sign of a trend reversal or a halt to the current uptick in momentum.

From a technical standpoint, as long as the AUD/USD pair trades below the cloud, the primary trend remains bearish. In this scenario, the next target will likely be March's lowest price, the 0.647 mark. Please note that if the Standard Deviation indicator rises above the 0.002 level, the pace of the downtrend will escalate.

On the flip side, the bear market should be invalidated if the price of the Australian dollar closes and stabilizes above the 0.6538 resistance mark. In this case, the rise will likely extend and aim for the upper band of the flag.​

 

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AUDUSD Climbs Higher: A Look into the Bullish Trend​

Solid ECN – Yesterday, the Australian dollar saw a significant rise against the U.S. dollar. This increase in value started when it surpassed the EMA 50 and reached 0.6524, marked by a large bullish candle. Following this, there were four more strong bullish candles, pushing the price beyond the Envelopes band, suggesting the market was in an overbought state. This was further supported by the RSI indicator moving above 70.

Today, the market is correcting itself slightly after reaching a high of 0.661 on Thursday. Currently, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.657, still above the 50% Fibonacci support level, and maintaining its position over the Ichimoku Cloud. Despite technical indicators showing a bearish trend, the overall outlook remains bullish as long as the price stays above the cloud and the EMA 50.

The AUD/USD price might climb further to challenge the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level at 0.6626, moving towards the top of the bullish channel shown in red on the 4-hour chart for AUD/USD.

However, if the price falls below the EMA 50 or the 38.2% Fibonacci support level at 0.5548, this would signal an end to the bullish trend.​

 

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Pound Sterling's High Against Dollar & Future Trends​

Solid ECN – Yesterday, the pound sterling reached its highest level against the U.S. Dollar for April, climbing to 1.268. When looking at the GBPUSD 4-hour chart, we see a candlestick with a long wick, peaking at 1.268. This peak is near the top edge of a falling flag pattern and is backed by the Ichimoku cloud and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

This area of strong resistance halted the pound's upward movement, leading to a rebound by the U.S. Dollar. Currently, the GBPUSD is trading around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), at approximately 1.263.

From a technical perspective, the currency pair is in a downtrend. If the price remains below the 50 EMA, we might see this downward trend continue. In such a case, the next target for the bears might be April's lowest point, at 1.2539.

However, if the GBPUSD price can rise above the 38.2% Fibonacci level or the 1.268 mark, it would signal a potential shift away from the downtrend. This possibility seems less likely, as the technical indicators lean towards a continuation of the bear market.​

 

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NZDUSD Pair Sees Bullish Break and Pullback​

Solid ECN – In the latest update for the NZDUSD pair, buyers successfully breached the falling trend line, as observed in the 4-hour chart. Currently, the pair is undergoing a slight pullback, trading around 0.602. It is approaching the EMA 50 and retesting the trend line it crossed.

The signals from technical indicators are not consistent. While the RSI remains above 50, suggesting a bullish trend, the AO bars are red, and the currency pair has yet to position itself over the Ichimoku cloud firmly. This indicates that the recent price increase from 0.5938 is not very strong. Thus, investing in this pair warrants a careful approach.

From a technical analysis standpoint, the NZDUSD price is currently within a bullish trend, staying above both the EMA 50 and the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. If buyers can keep the price above these critical points, we might see continued growth, potentially aiming for the 50% Fibonacci resistance level at 0.6070.

Conversely, a drop below the 0.6 threshold, aligning with the 61.2% Fibonacci level, could signal the end of the current bullish trend.​

 

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EURUSD Market Update​

Solid ECN – In Monday's trading session, the Euro trades at about 1.083 against the U.S. Dollar, which is slightly above the EMA 50 and the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. It seems the pair is trying to stabilize itself above the aforementioned level after pulling back from the 23.6% Fibonacci level in Friday's late trading session.

The technical indicators give mixed signals, but the Standard Deviation indicates low activity and sideways momentum in the EURUSD market. That said, with the RSI (Relative Strength Index) hovering above 50, the price of the EURUSD might grow higher to test the 50% Fibonacci level followed by the 1.088 strong resistance area.

However, entering the market with a bullish outlook is risky since the primary trend is bearish. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and monitor the price action closely near the key levels mentioned above and seek opportunities to join the bear market.

From a technical standpoint, if the price rises to the 1.088 resistance, it would offer a decent price to go short on the EURUSD pair if the 4-hour chart forms a bearish candlestick pattern.

On the other hand, if the Euro dips below the EMA 50, this could signal a continuation in the downtrend, and retail traders can adjust their strategies accordingly and join the primary trend, which is bearish.​

 

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EURUSD Steady at $1.08 as ECB Meeting Nears, Rate Cut Hints Awaited​

Solid ECN—The euro remained steady at about $1.08, with investors taking a cautious stance as they awaited Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) announcement.

It's widely anticipated that ECB officials will keep interest rates at their current record highs for the sixth time in a row. The focus is now on how the statement is worded and what ECB President Lagarde might say in her press conference to hint at when the first interest rate decrease of the year could happen.

Recent documents from the ECB show that the officials are more confident about inflation moving towards their goal of 2%, which makes a strong argument for a reduction in interest rates. On the other hand, the US dollar kept getting support because the latest data showed the American job market is still doing well, indicating that the Federal Reserve might not hurry to lower interest rates soon.​

 

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EURUSD Trends: A Shift Below Key Levels This Week​

Solid ECN – In the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD currency pair trades under the descending trendline, shown in black. This position came about after the pair developed a bearish engulfing pattern right around the 61.8% Fibonacci support level, suggesting the possibility of a trend change. At the same time, the awesome oscillator gives off a divergence signal, matching what the candlestick pattern indicates.

The pair must end below the 50 EMA for the downtrend to press on. If this happens, we could see the price heading towards the 23.6% Fibonacci support level, marking it as the initial goal for this week.

However, should the EURUSD pair's price climb above the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level, the current bearish market analysis might no longer be applicable.​

 

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USDJPY Breakthrough: Bullish Uptrend Resumes, Ichimoku Cloud Watch​

Solid ECN – In the current trading session, the bulls of USDJPY have finally broken through the 159.9 barrier. This suggests that the uptrend is likely to continue. However, the next bullish target remains uncertain as there are no significant obstacles for the bulls.

It’s important to note that the Ichimoku cloud is the dividing line between bull and bear markets. We should consider pausing the bullish scenario if the price falls below this level.​

 

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USDCAD Breaks April High: What's Next?​

Solid ECN — In this evening's trading session, The U.S. Dollar surpassed April's highest price point, the 1.3647 mark against the Canadian dollar. This uptick in momentum has led the RSI indicator to step into the overbought zone, indicating that the USDCAD pair might enter a short-term consolidation.

From a technical standpoint, this breakout paved the road to the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance. However, entering the bull market is not recommended when the market is saturated from buying pressure. That said, if the price returns to the 1.364 area followed by the 61.8%, it provides a decent entry point to join the buyers.​