AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

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AceTraderFx Aug 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Aug 2017 09:05 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.33
Despite Friday's resumption of recent decline from 114.49 (July) to a near 4-month trough of 108.74 in New York, subsequent rally to 109.80 yesterday and then intra-day rise above this level suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for a stronger retracement to 110.83. Having said that, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 111.05.

On the downside, only below 109.40 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for a re-test of 108.74, break, 108.50 later.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pay attention to July retail sales, import and exports data, New York Empire State mfg index, Redbook retail sales, business inventories n NAHB Housing Market index. If U.S. retail sales come in stronger than estimate, then usd will get a extra lift and move higher further, if not, this will represent an opportunity to buy dlr at lower levels.

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AceTraderFx Aug 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Aug 201709:05 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.95
Dollar's intra-day selloff in New York on Wed after dovish Fed minutes suggests 1st leg of correction from last Friday's near 4-month trough at 108.74 has ended at 110.95 and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 110.40, reckon 110.00/05 would hold and bring rebound.

On the upside, only above 110.40 defers bearishness and risks stronger gain to 110.60/65 but 110.95 should cap upside and yield another fall later.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today starting with weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed survey, capacity utilisation, industral n manufacturing output n leading indicators.
Last but not least, Dallas Fed President Kaplan (voter) will participate in a moderated Q&A session at the "Dialogue with the Dallas Fed" at 17:00GMT, then Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (voter) will participate in a moderated Q&A session at 17:45 GMT.

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AceTraderFx Aug 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Aug 2017 05:25 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1728
Despite yesterday's resumption of recent 'erratic' decline from Aug's 1.1909 peak to a 3-week trough of 1.1663 after ECB minutes said policymakers showed concerns over recent euro's strength, subsequent rebound to 1.1753 in New York due to broad-based usd's weakness suggests low is possibly made and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of aforesaid fall to 1.1790/93.

Only below 1.1700/05 may risk weakness towards 1.1663, however, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep the single currency above daily chart sup at 1.1614.

Data to be released on Friday:
Germany PPI, EU current account, construction output, Canada retail sales, CPI, core CPI, and U.S. university of Michigan sentiment.

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AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Aug 2017 09:05 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.05
Despite dollar's resumption of recent cross-inspired decline to a 4-month bottom of 108.61 last Friday, subsequent rally to 109.59 in New York as news of firing of Trump's chief strategist had boost risk sentiment, suggesting temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store.
The lack of usd buying interest today is due to return of another geopolitical risk as a 10-day military exercise between S. Korea n the U.S. begins on Monday and any missile threat by N. Korea will inevitably lead to another bout of yen n chf buying, so traders are not keen to buy the greenback despite Friday's rally

Above 108.59 would bring stronger retracement to 109.85/95, however, reckon 110.37 should cap upside.
Only below 108.61 risks marginal weakness, 'loss of downward' momentum should keep price above 2017 trough (Apr) at 108.13.

U.S. eco. calendar is very thin today with National Activity index being the only data due out.

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AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Aug 2017 09:35 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.19
Dollar's selloff from 109.85 due to broad-based usd's weakness in New York morning after transcript of Fed Yellen's Jackson Hole speech did not discuss monetary policy suggests early correction from August's 4-month bottom has ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen but below said sup needed to extend recent decline to 118.30/40.

On the upside, only above 109.50/55 'prolongs' choppy trading and may risk another rise to 109.80/85 but loss of upward momentum should cap price below 110.00/04.
Later in the day, U.S. will release wholesale inventories, trade balance and Dallas Fed mfg index.

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AceTraderFx Aug 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Aug 2017 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.10
Dlr's spectacular rally from Tuesday's 4-1/2 month trough at 108.27 to 109.89 in New York, then intra-day break above there suggests further choppy consolidation above 2017 bottom at 108.13 would continue and upside bias remains for a correction of recent decline from 114.49 (July) to 110.65 (38.2% r).
However, reckon res at 110.95 should cap upside.

On the downside, only below 109.55 signals 1st leg of indicated retracement is over but 109.00/10 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Swiss UBS consumption indicator, KOF leading indicator, ZEW investor sentiment, U.K. nationwide house price, mortgage approvals, inflation report hearings, Italy consumer confidence, business climate, EU consumer confidence, business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, Germany CPI, HICP.
Canada current account, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, PCE, GDP.

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AceTraderFx Sept 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Sep 2017 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.45

Although dollar's intra-day selloff to 109.20 in Asia due renewed safe-haven buying of yen on continued tension on the Korean Peninsula suggests decline from last week's high at110.67 (Thursday) would resume after consolidation, as broad outlook remains consolidative, 'loss of downward momentum' would limit weakness to 108.75/80 and risk has increased for a rebound.

On the upside, a firm rise above 109.89/92 would be the 1st signal said pullback is over and may head back towards 110.49.

U.S. will release a slew of data starting with Redbook sales, ISM New York index, durable goods orders and factory orders. Pay attention to speeches by Fed official starting with Fed Governor Brainard (voter) at 12:00GMT, and then Dallas Fed's Kashkari (voter) at 17:10GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Sep 2017 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.73
Dollar's intra-day weakness of continued safe-haven buying of yen suggests re-test of August's 108.27 low would be seen after consolidation, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness for weakness twowards 2017 bottom at 108.13 which may hold on 1st testing.

Only above 109.20 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger gain towards 109.54, however, reckon res at 109.84 should hold.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Germany industrial orders, Italy retail sales, Canada exports, imports, trade balance, BoC interest rate decision, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, trade balance, redbook, Markit services, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Fed's Beige book.

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AceTraderFx Sept 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Sep 2017 09:10GMT

USD/JPY - 108.98
Despite extending recent decline from 110.67 to 108.46 yesterday, subsequent strong rebound in New York following extension of U.S. debt ceiling and rising U.S. yields suggests further 'choppy' trading above August's 4-1/2 month bottom at 108.27 would continue and upside bias remains for subsequent headway towards 109.84 after consolidation.

On the downside, only below 108.46 would shift risk to downside for re-test of 108.27, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 2017 (April) bottom at 108.13.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light with weekly jobless claims, labor costs and nonfarm productivity being the data due out later in the day. Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-voter) will speak at 16:15GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Aug 2017 09:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.51
Dollar's impressive rally yesterday from 108.15 to as high as 109.50 due to active yen selling on return of risk sentiment together with rising U.S. yields confirms medium-term downtrend has made a temporary low at last Friday's 10-1/2 month bottom at 107.32 and upside bias remains for marginal gain,near term loss of momentum would cap price at 110.06.

On the downside, a daily close below 109.00 signals 1st leg of correction is over and risks stronger retracement towards 108.57/62 before prospect of another rise later this week.

U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light with Redbook retail sales and JOLTS jobs openings being the data due out where neither will have any impact to price, just following intra-day price movements of U.S. stocks and Treasury yields.

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