AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

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AceTraderFx Mar 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.30
Dollar's erratic rise from 105.60 (Friday) to 106.61 yesterday suggests further choppy trading above March's 105.25 bottom would continue and upside bias remains for further gain towards 106.90 ahead of FOMC announcement, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 107.29.

On the downside, below 105.60 (dovish Fed) signals said correction from 105.25 is over and risks re-test of this level later.

Ahead of FOMC announcement, U.S. will release current account n existing home sales.

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AceTraderFx Mar 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 105.67
The greenback's selloff yesterday in New York afternoon on a dovish Federal Reserve rate hike and intra-day fall to 105.58 in Asia confirms early correction from March's 15-month trough at 05.25 has ended at 107.29 earlier and consolidation with downside bias remains for medium-term decline to resume and yield re-test of said support, break would extend towards 104.77/80 early next week.

On the upside, only above 106.61 would abort daily bearish outlook and risk stronger retracement to 107.29, break, 107.68 later.

Data out on Thursday:
Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI, all industry activity, France business climate, GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, EU current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, UK retail sales, core retail sales, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, QE total, QE corporate bond purchases.
U.S. initial jobless claims, monthly home price, Markit manufacturing PMI, leading indicator, Markit services PMI, KC Fed Manufacturing.

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AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 105.07
The greenback's fall in Australia and subsequent break of last Friday's 16-month trough at 104.64 to 104.57 on Trump's tariffs signals medium-term decline remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 104.15/20 would be seen.
However, over sold condition would keep price above 104.06 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the upside, only above 105.81 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 106.09/10.

Today's data:
France GDP, Italy trade balance non-EU, U.K. BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.

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AceTraderFx Mar 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD,JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 105.55
Despite the greenback's fall to a fresh 16-month trough at 104.57 on Monday, subsequent strong rebound to 105.90 yesterday suggests medium-term decline has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for retracement towards 106.25 (61.8% of 107.29-104.57).
However, resistance at 106.64 should remain intact this week and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 104.92 would confirm said recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for a re-test of said support, break would extend weakness to 104.10/20.
BoJ Gov Kuroda will speak in parliament at 05:00GMT. Later today, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with MBA mortgage applications, final Q4 GDP, final Q4 PCE, trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales. Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) will be speaking again at 15:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.57
Yesterday's impressive rally abv 105.90 res to a 2-week peak of 107.01 due to broad-based usd's strength in New York suggests upmove from Monday's 16-month trough at 104.57 would head towareds 107.29 after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 107.68 today and risk has increased for a retracement of this week's strong upmove.

On the downside, below 106.00 anytime confirms 1st leg of correction is over and risks stronger retreat to 105.50/55 before prospect of another rebound next week.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Swiss KOF indicator, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI preliminary, HICP preliminary, Italy producer price index, U.K. mortgage approvals, GDP.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance

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AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2018 10:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.12
Although dollar's selloff in New York yesterday from 106.44 to as low as 105.67 due to safe-haven yen buying on decline in U.S. stocks suggests recent upmove from March's 104.57 low has made a top at 107.01 earlier.
Intra-day strong bounce suggests choppy sideways swings are in store n as long as 106.44 holds, another fall towards 105.33 is likely later.

Only a daily close above 106.44 signals pullback from 107.01 has possibly ended and may head back towards this res level later this week.
U.S. will release Redbook sales n ISM New York index and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non-voter) will speak at 14:30GMT and Fed Governor Brainard will speak at 20:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Apr 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04Apr 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.15
Although yesterday's rally to 106.65 (New York), then 106.69 today suggests dlr's correction from last week's high at 107.01 has ended at 105.67 (Monday), intra-day decline due to active safe-haven yen buying on escalation of trade tensions between U.S./China signals 'choppy' trading below 107.01 would continue.

Below 105.95/00 would risk weakness towards 105.37 but sup 105.33 should contain weakness.
Above 106.69 needed to revive bullish prospect of a re-test of 107.01 later today or tomorrow.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data but pay attention to ADP private payrolls at 12:15GMT ahead of Friday's NFP, then Markit services PMI, durable goods revision, factory orders and ISM non-mfg PMI.
Also we have 2 Fed Presidents speaking, starting with St. Louis Fed's Bullard (non-voter) at 13:45GMT n then Clevelan Fed's Mester (voter) at 15:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Apr 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Apr 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.41
Dollar's intra-day rally above last week's high at 107.01 to 107.49 yesterday on return of risk appetite due to broad-based rebound in global stocks and rising U.S. yields confirms recent upmove from March's 104.57 has once again resumed and would head to 107.60/70 after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 107.90 ahead of today's U.S. jobs report.

On the downside, only below 106.65/69 (previous res, now sup) signals top is in place and risk stronger retracement to 106.41/44, then later towards 105.99.

Data to be released on Friday:
China market holiday, Japan household spending, conincident indicator, leading indicator, Germany industrial output, France budget balance, current account, trade balance, imports, exports, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, and Canada employment change, employment rate, Ivey PMI

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AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Apr 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.11
Although price has retreated after dollar's rise to a fresh 1-month peak at 107.49 last week and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals medium-term decline has made a temporary low at March's 15-month bottom at 104.57, upside bias is retained and above 107.49 would yield stronger retracement towards 107.90.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 108.35/40.

On the downside, only below 105.99 would indicate the first leg of correction has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 105.67/70.
After Friday's release of key U.S. jobs data, there is no eco. data due out today, so keep an eye on intra-day move in U.S. yields as well as performance of U.S. stocks later in the day.

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AceTraderFx Apr 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Apr 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.02
Although price has retreated after dollar's rise to a fresh 1-month peak at 107.49 last week and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals medium-term decline has made a temporary low at March's 15-month bottom at 104.57, upside bias is retained and above 107.49 would yield stronger retracement towards 107.90.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 108.35/40.

On the downside, only below 105.99 would indicate the first leg of correction has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 105.67/70.

Later today, U.S. will release final March PPI, core PPI, Redbook retail sales and whole sales data which are unlikely to have much impact on the greenback. Market will follow intra-day moves in U.S. yields n U.S. stocks.

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