AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

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AceTraderFx May 19: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 May 2016 03:02GMT

USD/JPY - 110.24... Dlr trades with a firm undertone in Tokyo trading after o/n rally to a near 3-week high of 110.26 following release of 'hawkish' FOMC minutes which indicated a rate rise in June is still on the cards if upcoming U.S. data show decent strength on the economy.

Yesterday's close above the psychological 110.00 res bodes well for recent dlr bulls as a weekly close above this level would generate 'buy signal' on many momentum-tracking trading models. Therefore, buying dlr on dips is the way to go. Bids are noted at 110.00-109.90 area and more below with stops below 109.50.
Some offers are tipped at 110.40/50 with stops touted above there.

Some light U.S. data are due out later today and if weekly U.S. jobless claims data continues to show strength in the labour market, then expect further buying on the dlr.

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AceTraderFx May 23: G7 finance leaders united over the weekend in "wishing" that Britain stays in the EU

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- GBP/USD
23 May 2016 01:10GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Reuters reported over the w/end the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union extended its lead over the "Out" campaign in an opinion poll published on Saturday, while two major bookmakers offered the shortest odds to date on a vote to remain.
The poll from market research company Opinium for the Observer newspaper marked the sixth poll out of seven published in the last week to show the Remain campaign in the lead.
Forty-four percent of Britons wanted to remain in the EU, up from 42 percent in an Opinium/Observer poll at the end of last month, while the proportion wanting to leave edged down a point to 40 percent.

As polls have given sharply different pictures of public opinion, many investors are watching betting odds closely. Odds have consistently indicated a high probability of an "In" result in the June 23 referendum.

The two bookmakers said the vast majority of cash staked on the referendum backed a "Remain" result - 90 percent of it in the case of Ladbrokes. Still, William Hill said most individual gamblers had betted on Britain leaving the EU.
"The Brexit rally of a few weeks ago seems a distant memory. It's significant that so many people are prepared to back remain despite the short odds," according to Ladbrokes.
William Hill's odds now reflect an 85 percent chance of a "Remain" vote, up from 83 percent on Friday. Ladbrokes, which removes the margin it takes on bets from its calculations, pointed to a 79 percent chance - up from 66 percent a month ago.

Earlier on Saturday, finance leaders of the Group of Seven industrial powers united over the weekend in wishing that Britain stays in the EU, but acknowledged they could do little more than hope.

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AceTraderFx May 24: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 May 201602:00GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr is nursing loss in subdued Tokyo morning after yesterday's intra-day selloff from 110.24 (AUS) to as low as 109.11 in 'delayed' reaction to weekend's warning issued by U.S. to Japan on yen-intervention to weaken the yen.
Although dlr tumbled to session low of 09.11 in New York after tripping stops below 109.33 (European low), short-covering (profit-taking) lifted price back to 109.41 in Asia, suggesting choppy trading above said New York low would continue before decline from Friday's 3-week top at 110.59 resumes later today.

Offers are tipped at 109.55/65 and more above with stops reported above 110.00, initial bids are noted at 109.20-10 with stops below 109.00.

Later today, U.S. will release Redbook retail sales, then Market mfg PMI, new home sales data n Richmond Fed mfg shipment index during New York morning session.

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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- GBP/USD

24 May 2016 09:18

GBP/USD - ..... Sterling rallied broadly at European morning, price climbed from 1.4478 to 1.4548. Reuters reported sterling was boosted by a poll that showed the "Remain" camp was well ahead over their "Brexit" rivals with a month to go before a vote on Britain's future in the European Union.
On Monday, sterling started the week on a shaky note after warnings from Prime Minister David Cameron and finance minister George Osborne that a vote to leave the EU could push Britain into a year-long recession and cost at least half a million jobs.

But the latest poll from ORB published in Tuesday's edition of the Telegraph newspaper gave the "Remain" camp a 13-point lead over their "Leave" rivals, after winning support for the first time from a majority of men, those aged over 65 and Conservative voters. That seemed to soothe nerves towards the currency, according to the traders.

The pound tends to underperform during times of risk aversion because of the huge investment flows Britain relies on to balance its more than 5-percent current account deficit.
Flows dry up when investors are worried about growth and market stability - jitters that are heightened by any developments that make a Brexit looks more likely.
Brexit concerns drove the pound down 11 percent on a trade-weighted basis between mid-November and early April, when it hit a 2-1/2-year low, but it has recovered almost 5 percent.
That rise came as investors priced out chances of a rate cut that some were factoring in if Britain opted to leave the union.
But with investors also starting to factor in greater chances that the Federal Reserve could raise rates this summer, traders expect gains in the pound against the dollar to run out.

Attention will now turn to a testimony by Bank of England chief Mark Carney and three other policymakers before lawmakers.
In the past, Carney has warned about downside risks from Britain exiting the EU, comments which have drawn sharp criticism from those campaigning to leave the union.

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AceTraderFx May 25: Euro zone gave Greece its firmest offer of debt relief but Greece must commit to the criteria

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD
25 May 2016 02:108

EUR/USD - ..... The euro zone gave Greece its firmest offer yet of debt relief in what finance ministers called a breakthrough deal that won a commitment from the IMF finally to return to taking part in the bailout for Athens.

After talks that lasted into the small hours of Wednesday, the Eurogroup ministers gave a nod to releasing 10.3 billion euros in new funds for Greece in recognition of painful fiscal reforms pushed through by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's leftist-led coalition, subject to some final technical tweaks.
But a bigger step forward was a deal by which the euro zone agreed to offer Athens debt relief in 2018 if that is necessary to meet agreed criteria on its payments burden. That was enough to secure an agreement from the International Monetary Fund to again join the euro zone in funding the bailout of Greece.

Acknowledging the "political capital" European ministers invested to reach the deal -- a nod to strong German objections to debt relief -- Dijsselbloem called it a "new phase" in a six-year drama to stabilise Greece's finances that has taken the 16-year-old euro zone to the brink of break-up.
Mutual trust was returning to the talks, he said, nearly a year after Tsipras's rejection of austerity measures pushed Athens close to be pushed out of the euro.

The IMF has long insisted on the European governments taking a hit to relieve Athens of some of its debt in order to make its public finances more sustainable. The refusal of Germany and others to do that had led to months of wrangling with the IMF in which Athens had been something of a spectator in negotiations.

While the Europeans did not offer immediate debt relief, or make an unconditional promise of reducing the payments Greece must make to them, they did spell out criteria for it.
Athens' gross financing needs show be kept below 15 percent of GDP in the medium term and below 20 percent beyond that.

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AceTraderFx May 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 May 2016 04:02GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Despite yesterday's intra-day marginal breach of Tuesday's 1.1133 low to a fresh 2-month trough at 1.1129 in New York morning, traders quickly took profit due to lack of follow-through selling n lifted euro back up to 1.1167 in New York afternoon.
Price later met renewed buying at 1.1146 at New York close and euro climbed to 1.1178 shortly after Asian open as intra-day selloff in dlr/yen led to broad-based usd's weakness, euro tested 1.1180 before easing.

Intra-day rebound strongly suggests euro's recent decline has made a temp. bottom yesterday at 1.1129 and initial stops above 1.1180 are now in focus, more buy stops are touted above 1.1200/05, however, some offers are noted at 1.1235/45.
Therefore, even 1.1180 res is taken out, would be wise to buy euro on subsequent retreat.

Bids have been raised to 1.1160-55 and more below with some stops below 1.1125, however, there is market chatter of fairly good buying interest above 1.1100.

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AceTraderFx May 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views - USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 May 2016 1:08GMT

USD/JPY - ......Japanese media reported ahead of Tokyo morning that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering to delay a sales tax hike, originally planned in April 2017, by around two years. And Abe would likely announce the delay as early as June 1, when the current parliament session closes.

The decision would come in the wake of a Group of Seven (G7) summit, Abe is hosting in western Japan, where he told the leaders the global economy may be on the verge of a financial crisis on the scale of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
The postponement by two years would still allow Japan to meet its target of turning the country's budget deficit into a surplus by fiscal 2020, the Yomiuri newspaper said.

Abe has pledged to raise Japan's sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in April next year, however, with Japan skirting recession and inflation still anemic, many of his aides have proposed postponing the tax hike to ensure Japan makes a sustained exit from deflation.

The media reported that Abe will shortly convey his idea to Finance Minister Taro Aso and the head of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party's coalition partner.
The Asahi also reported that Abe would forgo calling a snap election of the lower house of parliament, instead focusing on an upper house election already scheduled in July.
There had been some speculation that Abe would call a lower house election to coincide with the upper house election.

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AceTraderFx May 30: Market Review on USD/JPY
30 May 20161:08GMT

USD/JPY - .... Dollar climbed to a 1-month high of 110.86 ahead of Tokyo open following weekend news of a delay in a sales tax hike. Yesterday it was reported that Japanese PM Shinzo Abe plans to delay an increase in sales tax by two and a half years as the economy sputters and Abe prepares for a national election.

The prime minister, who has promised to announce steps on Tuesday to spur economic growth and promote structural reform, is also expected to order an extra budget to fund stimulus measures, just two months into the fiscal year and on the heels of a supplementary budget to pay for recovery from recent earthquakes in southern Japan.

After chairing a summit of G7 leaders on Friday, Abe said Japan would mobilise "all policy tools" - including the possibility of delaying the tax hike - to avoid what he called an economic crisis on the scale of the global financial crisis that followed the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.
Abe has long said he would proceed with a plan to raise the tax rate to 10 percent from 8 percent next April unless Japan faced a crisis on the magnitude of the Lehman shock.
He said the G7 "shares a strong sense of crisis" about the global outlook, with the most worrisome risk being a global contraction led by a slowdown in emerging economies like China.

But other G7 leaders, however, appeared to differ with Abe on the risk of a global crisis, fuelling comment that Abe was using the G7 to justify delaying the painful tax hike.

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AceTraderFx May 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 May 201601:23GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback rose to session high at 111.45 in early European morning, price retreated to 111.03 and continued to trade in a narrow range in holiday-thinned conditions as UK and US markets were closed.
Dlr briefly dropped to 110.80 at Tokyo open after Japan reported better-than-expected industrial production data before rebounding in Tokyo morning.

Factory output rose 0.3 percent in April from the previous month, against a median market forecast for a 1.5 percent drop, data by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on Tuesday. It followed a 3.8 percent rise in March.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. consumer confidence data at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is for a rise to 96.0 fm prev. reading of 94.2.

Bids are now seen at 110.90/00 and more below at 110.70/80 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 111.60/70, suggesting buying on dips for a resumption of recent uptrend is favored.

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AceTraderFx Jun 1: Delay on the scheduled sales tax by another 30 months is expected to be announced by Japan PM

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Jun 2016 01:06GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected later today to announce delaying the scheduled sales tax hike by two-and-a-half years, but will likely bow to pressure from his coalition partner not to call a snap general election.
The tax delay, which had been widely expected, will be welcomed by voters, who will cast ballots in an upper house election in July. But it is fanning doubts about Abe's plans to curb Japan's huge public debt and fund ballooning social welfare costs of a fast-ageing population.

It would be the second time that Abe has delayed the increase in the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent, after a rise from 5 percent in April 2014 which tipped the economy back into recession.
Abe took office in December 2012 pledging to beat deflation and reboot the moribund economy with his "Abenomics" revival recipe, but has made little headway amid stubbornly weak domestic and export demand.

Abe's term as ruling Liberal Democratic Party president and premier, ends in September 2018 and unless the LDP changes its rules, has repeatedly said he would implement the tax rise as planned unless the economy faced a shock from a financial crisis or natural disaster.
But he laid the groundwork for a delay at last week's Group of Seven summit, insisting his G7 partners shared a "strong sense of crisis" about the global economic outlook and drawing parallels to the 2008 world financial crisis that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

Government officials have said Abe has not abandoned a pledge to bring the country's primary budget balance into the black by the fiscal year from April 2020 to rein in public debt which is already more than double annual economic output.
But that target had already looked elusive, even with the government's rosy forecast of real economic growth of 2 percent on average in coming years.
Abe will also need to explain to voters how he plans to make up for the funding gap from the tax hike delay to October 2019, and keep pledges to beef up support for the elderly.

Speculation had simmered that Abe would call an election for parliament's powerful lower house as he did in 2014 after announcing the first tax hike delay, aiming to lock in his ruling bloc's two thirds "super majority" in the lower house and win a similar grip on the upper chamber, while there is no lower house poll need be held until 2018.

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