Zforex
zForex.com Representative
- Messages
- 30
EURUSD
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75% at its upcoming meeting. This rate hike is widely anticipated, with a probability of around 97%. The ECB had previously implemented a similar rate increase in June, but it has since slowed down the pace due to concerns about a looming recession.
ECB President Lagarde has been vocal about the need to bring inflation back to the target level and has reiterated the commitment to achieve a 2.0% inflation target. The latest inflation data shows a slight decline in the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation in June.
However, some ECB policymakers have expressed dovish views, suggesting caution in further rate increases. They point to softer-than-expected inflation data and concerns about the potential impact on the economy. The upcoming decision on interest rates in September is seen as critical and will heavily influence the direction of the Euro and its valuation against the US Dollar (EUR/USD).
The recent disappointing preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs for July in the Eurozone and Germany have added weight to the view that the region might be heading toward a recession, supporting the dovish expectations from the ECB.
The EUR/USD made a bullish move after yesterday's Fed meeting and is currently trading at the resistance level of 1.1120. At this level, we can find the upper parallel of the bearish channel, and it also represents the last support level.
ECB President Lagarde has been vocal about the need to bring inflation back to the target level and has reiterated the commitment to achieve a 2.0% inflation target. The latest inflation data shows a slight decline in the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation in June.
However, some ECB policymakers have expressed dovish views, suggesting caution in further rate increases. They point to softer-than-expected inflation data and concerns about the potential impact on the economy. The upcoming decision on interest rates in September is seen as critical and will heavily influence the direction of the Euro and its valuation against the US Dollar (EUR/USD).
The recent disappointing preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs for July in the Eurozone and Germany have added weight to the view that the region might be heading toward a recession, supporting the dovish expectations from the ECB.
The EUR/USD made a bullish move after yesterday's Fed meeting and is currently trading at the resistance level of 1.1120. At this level, we can find the upper parallel of the bearish channel, and it also represents the last support level.
Resistance 3 | Resistance 2 | Resistance 1 | Support 1 | Support 2 | Support 3 |
1.1210 | 1.1180 | 1.1120 | 1.1085 | 1.1046 | 1.1000 |
GBPUSD
On Thursday, the pound sterling (GBP) experienced a slight corrective movement amid growing fears of a recession in the United Kingdom's economy, which has raised concerns about the Bank of England's (BoE) aggressive policy tightening. The GBP/USD pair is under pressure, but overall sentiment towards the Pound Sterling remains bullish. This optimism is fueled by the possibility of further interest-rate hikes by the UK central bank, aimed at bringing inflation back to its target level.
The UK's Treasury Advisers have expressed worries about economic growth due to the BoE's aggressive policy tightening, which has placed a heavy burden on businesses. Additionally, the country's housing sector is grappling with the impact of higher borrowing costs, leading to a sharp decline in demand from first-time home buyers.
The GBP/USD is on a bullish trend toward the next resistance of 1.3000. A breakout of this level will take the price toward 1.3150.
The UK's Treasury Advisers have expressed worries about economic growth due to the BoE's aggressive policy tightening, which has placed a heavy burden on businesses. Additionally, the country's housing sector is grappling with the impact of higher borrowing costs, leading to a sharp decline in demand from first-time home buyers.
The GBP/USD is on a bullish trend toward the next resistance of 1.3000. A breakout of this level will take the price toward 1.3150.
Resistance 3 | Resistance 2 | Resistance 1 | Support 1 | Support 2 | Support 3 |
1.3220 | 1.3150 | 1.3000 | 1.2800 | 1.2750 | 1.2650 |
Investors are closely observing Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) prepares to announce its interest rate decision. Expectations are that the BoJ will maintain its current monetary policy, which includes keeping short-term interest rates at -0.1% and 10-year bond yields at 0%. Japan's core inflation rate has surpassed that of the United States for the first time in eight years, indicating that policymakers may continue to adopt a cautious approach to ensure inflation remains above 2%. The differing monetary policies between the BoJ and the Federal Reserve could put pressure on the Japanese Yen relative to other major currencies, potentially impacting the USD/JPY pair. On the other hand, the US Dollar has weakened after the Fed raised interest rates to a target range of 5.25%–5.5%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of further rate hikes, but this could limit the potential for the US Dollar to strengthen further. Market participants will be closely monitoring upcoming US economic data and the BoJ meetings scheduled for Friday.
Technically, USDJPY continues to move downwards, forming a second leg in the long-term downtrend. The next support level is at 138.70, followed by 137.70.
Technically, USDJPY continues to move downwards, forming a second leg in the long-term downtrend. The next support level is at 138.70, followed by 137.70.
Resistance 3 | Resistance 2 | Resistance 1 | Support 1 | Support 2 | Support 3 |
142.00 | 141.20 | 140.22 | 138.70 | 137.70 | 135.50 |
XAUUSD
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%–5.5%, the highest level in over 22 years. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation has moderated but stated the target of 2% is still far off. The possibility of the Fed pausing rate hikes provided some support to precious metals like gold. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates but concerns about the Eurozone's economic slowdown may impact their decision. China's additional support for its real estate sector and domestic consumption supports a positive outlook for gold. Market participants will closely watch US economic data, including GDP and jobless claims, which could influence the USD and affect gold prices in the short term.
Gold made a strong comeback, displaying a bullish momentum that propelled the price beyond the resistance level of 1973. It is now heading towards the first resistance level at 1986, with the next target set at 2000.
Gold made a strong comeback, displaying a bullish momentum that propelled the price beyond the resistance level of 1973. It is now heading towards the first resistance level at 1986, with the next target set at 2000.
Resistance 3 | Resistance 2 | Resistance 1 | Support 1 | Support 2 | Support 3 |
1982 | 1970 | 1960 | 1940 | 1931 | 1920 |
DAX40
European shares increased on Thursday, as traders reacted to a busy morning of earnings reports and awaited the European Central Bank's policy decision after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected.
The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the ninth time in a row later on Thursday and keep the door open to further moves. The decision is due at 1215 GMT.
In a busy day of earnings, Nestle rose 1.2% after the world's biggest packaged food company improved its full-year organic sales outlook and reported better-than-expected first-half organic sales as it again raised prices.
BNP Paribas added 2.3% after the Eurozone's biggest bank beat analyst estimates for net income in the second quarter.
Safran rose 1.4% after the jet engine maker raised profit and cash flow forecasts while Airbus fell 1.9% after the planemaker removed an interim industrial target on the route to record jet output.
Volkswagen slid 3.6% after the German automaker lowered its 2023 outlook for deliveries as Renault dipped 0.8% even as the French car maker posted its highest-ever operating margin of 7.6% for the first half of 2023.
French call-center operator Teleperformance tumbled 10.9% after it downgraded its full-year revenue growth target and tempered talk surrounding its adoption of generative AI technologies.
DAX is hovering around the 16300 level which is the resistance level of the last June and May months. There is a possible price concentration around the current resistance area of 16,200-16,400, which could indicate the formation of a reversal pattern.
The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the ninth time in a row later on Thursday and keep the door open to further moves. The decision is due at 1215 GMT.
In a busy day of earnings, Nestle rose 1.2% after the world's biggest packaged food company improved its full-year organic sales outlook and reported better-than-expected first-half organic sales as it again raised prices.
BNP Paribas added 2.3% after the Eurozone's biggest bank beat analyst estimates for net income in the second quarter.
Safran rose 1.4% after the jet engine maker raised profit and cash flow forecasts while Airbus fell 1.9% after the planemaker removed an interim industrial target on the route to record jet output.
Volkswagen slid 3.6% after the German automaker lowered its 2023 outlook for deliveries as Renault dipped 0.8% even as the French car maker posted its highest-ever operating margin of 7.6% for the first half of 2023.
French call-center operator Teleperformance tumbled 10.9% after it downgraded its full-year revenue growth target and tempered talk surrounding its adoption of generative AI technologies.
DAX is hovering around the 16300 level which is the resistance level of the last June and May months. There is a possible price concentration around the current resistance area of 16,200-16,400, which could indicate the formation of a reversal pattern.
Resi Level 3 | Resi Level 2 | Resi Level 1 | Suppo level 1 | Suppo level 2 | Suppo level 3 |
16600 | 16400 | 16200 | 15650 | 15400 | 15200 |