DAILY MARKET NEWS - 01-12-2023

Ariff Azraei

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Over 160 world leaders have converged in Dubai ahead of the pivotal COP28 climate summit to accelerate global action on the escalating climate crisis. Bill Gates voiced optimism about encouraging climate solutions but stressed the need to rapidly scale promising technologies with robust government policies and private sector support. Africa and other fossil fuel-dependent nations are pushing for just transition assistance to adapt their vulnerable economies, while factions disagree on aggressive fossil fuel phase-out targets. With immense complexity and drama expected on the fate of fossil fuels, the talks ultimately hinge on urgent, equitable climate progress across all nations.

EQUITY

The Nasdaq soared 10% in November, closing above July highs, as slowing inflation and solid earnings lifted markets. However, cautious outlooks from companies signal lingering economic uncertainty tempering corporate profits, while hawkish Fed warnings linger. Though currently buoyant, prominent forecasts still call for an over 8% S&P 500 decline by end-2024 by JPMorgan due to slowing growth and optimistic valuations despite lingering risks.

GOLD

Gold prices rose for the third straight week Friday as slowing inflation revived bets for a Fed rate cut, driving traders to cover dollar and buy gold. Easing labor conditions has also made the case to end the Fed’s tightening campaign and boosted the odds of cuts next year while traders awaited Fed Chair Powell’s remarks for further policy guidance.

OIL

Despite OPEC+ agreeing to additional voluntary output cuts, crude declined as the supply constraints fell short of expectations for more aggressive action to rebalance an oversupplied market. Lacklustre Chinese PMI data signalled limited improvement in the world's largest importer. Weak follow-through from some members, coupled with unexpected builds in U.S. product stockpiles, cast doubt on the efficacy of future collective action to stabilise the downward trend.

CURRENCY

The dollar recovered Thursday amid month-end positioning yet still suffered steep November losses as cooling inflation stokes hopes of earlier Fed easing, while Asian currencies kept rangebound following mixed domestic data, while the euro descended after soft inflation figures raised ECB cut bets ahead of next week's central bank meetings.
 
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