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Monday, June 5th

The GBP/USD pair extends its consolidation pattern in the region of 1.2870 level into the European session after opening with a bearish gap. The pound remains one of the most discussed currencies of this Monday, as various events are influencing the British currency at the start of this week. UK bulls were unable to hold its Friday gains and allowed the pair to step away from the region of 1.2890-2900, as another terrorist attack hit the UK over the weekend, weakening sentiments around the pound. By the moment of writing, Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the London Bridge terrorist attack. Moreover, investors continue to stay cautious, as only four days left until the UK general election. According to the latest polls, Conservatives slightly improved its positions lately, however, remaining on a short distance from its main opponents – Labour party. On the other hand, the market continues to digest positive UK construction data and disappointing NFP, providing support to the pound this Monday. Now immediate focus shifts toward the UK Services PMI report, while ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will hog the limelight in NY trading hours.

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Wednesday, June 7th

The EUR/USD pair remains offered so far this session, refreshing its daily lows at 1.1246, as investors are refraining from placing any directional bets ahead of the key political and economic risky events. The UK general election and ECB monetary policy decision are the main events of the week, which will be highly influential for the pair, as the market believes that ECB may appear dovish on its policy stance, while the UK general election will provide more hints on a divorce deal between the UK and EU. Amid absence of any fundamental releases from both economies, the pair will likely keep its cautious tone today, while any sharp moves of the euro cross with the pound could bring some correlational impetus this Wednesday.

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Friday, June 9th

The UK general election is over and outcome of this event is not so optimistic for the pound, as the Britain has voted for chaos. According to the latest exit polls, the Conservatives failed to gain majority of seats in the House of Commons, which means that the UK now will face hung parliament. On the other hand, hung parliament will likely lead to a softer approach in the Brexit deal, which will be a big positive for the GBP in mid-term projection. Nevertheless, as for now current UK political situation will continue to create major uncertainty until new government will be formed, which in turn, heavily weighs on the pound. In accordance with the latest events, the GBP/USD pair met huge wave of volatility, having fallen for more than 2.5 cents, from the mid-point of 1.29 toward the level of 1.2700. Currently the pair is extending its decline, refreshing its nearly 2-month lows at 1.2663 spot, as European traders have hit their desks, providing the pair with additional pressure this morning. Now immediate focus shifts toward the UK Manufacturing Production report, however, any sharp moves will be limited, as traders will continue to digest the UK election results.

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Tuesday, June 13th

The Loonie is undoubtedly the best performer of this week, having shown a massive swing of more than 150 points in the pair with its US neighbor on the back of hawkish talks of BoC Senior Deputy Governor C.Wilkins. Yesterday the USD/CAD met huge wave of offers, stepping away from 1.3465 spot to the region of 1.3280 after Ms. Wilkins mentioned that the CB would reconsider its monetary policy and assess whether all the stimulus of the Bank are still needed. The statement of the BoC member was perceived by the market as clear hint on further rate hike. Moreover, the Canadian dollar continues to benefit from better-than-expected jobs report and slightly firmer oil prices, keeping the pair within striking distance of its 2-month lows, posted at 1,3263 in early Europe. On the other side, further downside remains capped as investors are gearing up for the much awaited Fed interest rate decision, which is scheduled on this Wednesday. However, now all investors’ attention shifts toward the US PPI data, which will be released later in the NA session, while the market will continue to digest the latest comments of the BoC superior.

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Wednesday, June 14th

The EUR/USD pair is showing lack of direction this Wednesday, as cautious moods are prevailing across the market ahead of upcoming big event. Today the market remains in anticipation of another rate increase of this year from the Fed. However, since a rate hike is a done deal, investors will await for any remarks of FOMC members whether the regulator still sees a potential for further monetary policy tightening measures in 2017. Moreover, broad nervousness and weaker positions of the US dollar against its main competitors should keep sentiments around the Euro underpinned today. Looking ahead, a lack of relevant macro news from the Eurozone will leave the major at the mercy of global markets sentiments during European trading hours, while busy NA session will be able to shape up pair’s further direction.

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Thursday, June 15th

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating Wednesday’s reversal, however, keeping its positions above the level of 1.1200 throughout the Asian trading session. Yesterday the pair caught wave of fresh bids, as US inflation and retail sales reports missed market’s expectations. However, the pair was not able to hold its positions and lowered to the level of 1.1200, as Fed increased its interest rate by 25 bps. Nevertheless, market’s reaction on rate hike was limited, as investors had already fully priced in Fed tightening measures, while slightly hawkish tone of Janet Yellen provided some support to the dollar. During a press briefing, Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen stated that US economy renewed its growing pace, after slowdown in the first quarter of this year. Also Yellen added that rate increase in upcoming years would be appropriate, however, without providing any details on the timing of further tightening measure implementations. Today we will have another pack of US macro reports, which will be published in NA session, while investors will also keep eyes on the BOE interest decision, as sharp price-actions in EUR/GBP would provide the euro with some correlational impetus during European trading hours.

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Friday, June 16th

The EUR/USD pair was consolidating its downside rally within 20 pips range in Asia near its 2-week lows, marked yesterday at 1.1130 level. Seems that hawkish rhetoric of Fed Chair J.Yellen and decision of the US central bank to increase its interest rate by 25 bps are still negatively influencing the pair since it indicates a divergence between policies of the Fed and ECB. Adding to that, positive data from the US economy, published yesterday, were also supportive to the US dollar lately, thereby accelerating pair’s recent decline. However, the pair managed to correct higher this morning, as traders have locked in some profits after crucial events of this week. Now immediate focus shifts toward the Eurozone inflation report, which will be released during European hours, while data from the US housing market will hog the limelight later in the NA session.

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Monday, June 19th

The EUR/USD par lost its upside momentum in early Europe and stepped away from the level of 1.1200 toward the region of 1.1180 amid attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions after Friday’s decline. The pair gained positive trend in Asia on the back of news that French President E.Macron’s party has obtained an absolute majority in the French parliament following the second round of legislative elections on Sunday, thereby supporting the euro across the market. However, the pair has lost its bullish momentum, as now all eyes shift toward the Brexit talks, which will take place later today. Besides start of Brexit negotiations, nothing important is scheduled in data calendar for this Monday, so the pair will keep up with broad market’s trend in anticipation of the major event.

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Tuesday, June 20th

The GBP/USD pair was consolidating its yesterday’s decline within 1.2730-40 range throughout the Asia, backed by jitters surrounding Brexit negotiations. As we know, the negotiation process on Brexit officially starter yesterday and according to the latest headlines, some agreements have already been reached. Both sides agreed to create three working groups for negotiations on the rights of citizens, financial settlement and the discussion of other issues. Also sides appointed preliminary dates for subsequent meetings to be held on July 17, September 18 and October 9. By the results of the first meeting, EU and UK remained satisfied with the outcome of the meeting, however, stressing that the final deal is still far away. Looking ahead, uncertainty around Brexit negotiations will continue to weigh on the British pound, as the position of the UK on negotiations is still unclear due to turmoil on the UK political field. Now all eyes remain on BOE Governor Carney’s speech, while the US docket will keep silence during this day, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market’s trend.

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Wednesday, June 21st

The pound was consolidating yesterday’s drop against its US counterpart in Asia, remaining with no chances to recover positions, as investors stay cautious amid lingering political concerns and dovish BoE Governor M.Carney’s remarks. Yesterday the GBP/USD pair fell from the region of 1.2750 to the level of 1.2603, following speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who stressed that now it is not the right time for adjusting rate, as UK inflation remains subdued. Adding to this, ongoing uncertainty on the UK political field also keeps the pair capped, as Conservatives failed to reach a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party, which means that the UK PM T.May is still on a back foot to form the ruling coalition, which in turn also weights the pound across the board. Now immediate focus shifts toward another speech of the BoC member A.Haldane, while US Existing Home Sales, expected later during the NA session, will be able to set up short-term directional trend for the pair.

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