Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest from Forex.ee

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Friday, June 26th

USD/JPY was down 0.18% traded at 123.40 amid mostly positive Japanese data. The household spending rose 2.4% in May while Japanese National CPI was up 0.5%. The yen continues strengthening with resistance level located at 123.80 and support at 122.53.

AUD/USD declined 0.37% currently traded at 0.7700. The pair will find strong support at 0.7678 and resistance at 0.7774.

NZD/USD was moving down in Asia despite data showing that New Zealand’s Trade Balance deficit shrank while economists expected its increase. The current market price of NZD is $0.6880.

The U.S. dollar index was up 0.10% to 95.40.

EUR/USD was again below 1.12 today, but currently quoted at 1.1215. The market is mostly waiting for the outcome of Greek negotiations.

Ahead in the day, investors are watching the speech of Bank of England Governor M. Carney.


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Monday, June 29th

EUR/USD dropped to 1.0954 after dramatic collapse of negotiations between Greece and its creditors over the weekend. Greek banks and stock exchange are expected to be closed for the entire week as the government imposed capital controls within the country. The possibility that Greece will run out of cash even before the July 5 referendum called by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is very high. The pair is currently traded at 1.1084. Today’s move of the single currency majorly affected the market, which opened with a gap in Asia leading to significantly higher volatility.

The U.S. dollar index which measures the strength of the greenback against six major currencies was up 0.83% to 96.40. The U.S. data on Friday showed that consumer sentiment rose this month bolstering the expectations for higher interest rates.

USD/JPY slumped to 122.10 over higher retail sales in Japan and the plunge of the euro. The pair is currently moving back towards 123.00 reading as dollar is gaining momentum.

AUD held steady at three-week lows against the greenback. The pair hit 0.7586 during the Asian trade, which was its lowest since June 8. Currently located at 0.7638, the pair can find support at 0.7550 and resistance at 0.7701.

NZD/USD touched the level of 0.6785 this morning, which was pair’s lowest since June 2010. The Kiwi is back to above 0.68, but the bearish trend is likely to continue further.

Ahead in the day, investors are viewing the pending home sales in the U.S. while the situation in Greece remains the main point of concern.


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Tuesday, June 30th

EUR/USD reversed plunging 0.4% during the Asian session. After the collapse of Greek negotiations the attention of the market is now turned to the July 5 referendum. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras reported he might resign if Greek people vote in favor of the creditors’ proposal. The pair is traded at 1.1166.

AUD/USD was rising this morning despite weaker data. HIA New Home Sales fell 2.3% in May, which was a sharp fall from 0.6% gain in the previous month. The aussie is quoted at 0.7683 against the greenback with support and resistance levels located at 0.7595 and 0.7779, respectively.

USD/JPY continued the bearish trend after rising above 123.00 level yesterday afternoon. The Japanese data on Housing Starts came out in line with expectations, while construction orders declined 7.4% after last month’s -12.1%. The pair is located at 122.21.

GBP/USD fell below 1.57 amid strengthening of the dollar this morning, but cable erased losses rising back to 1.5710. The markets are viewing the British GDP later in the day. The pair is likely to find support near 1.5622 and strong resistance at 1.5826.

NZD/USD was moving down in Asia, which shows the continuous weakening of the Kiwi. The pair dipped to 0.6794 subsequently consolidating at 0.6808. In New Zealand, building consents came in flat and ANZ Business Confidence reading was -2.3%.

Ahead in the day, investors are viewing euro zone’s CPI, Canadian GDP and Conference Board Consumer Confidence report from the U.S.


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Wednesday, July 1st

Greece has officially missed its 1.6 billion payment to the IMF on Tuesday. This is the largest missed payment ever owed to the IMF and Greece is no longer in a bailout program for the first time since 2010. Greek banks and the Athens stock exchange remain closed through this week ahead of the July 5 referendum. Beyond that, Greece has a July 20 payment of 3.5 billion euros due to the ECB. EUR/USD was as low as 1.1107 today, but no major volatility is observed in today’s trade so far.

AUD/USD continued recovery from its Monday lows despite China’s PMI missing the expectations. The pair is currently traded at 0.7705 after reaching its highest of 0.7738 today. In Australia, the AIG Manufacturing index fell 8.1 points to 44.2, which is its two-year low. Also, the number of building approvals in Australia rose 2.4%, above expectations of 1.0% growth. The RBA Commodity Price index was down 17.9% after the 20.8% plunge last month. The support will be found at 0.7684 and resistance at 0.7770.

USD/JPY was going up despite all major economic data from Japan showing stronger than expected readings. The pair is trading close to 122.71.

The U.S. dollar index was down 0.01% at 95.74.

NZD/USD rose 0.61% from its five-year lows reaching the 0.6810 reading and subsequently consolidating at 0.6777. It is official holiday in New Zealand today, so without any news coming out from New Zealand the pair’s moves will solely depend on the strength of the U.S. dollar.

USD/CAD is on the bullish trend after yesterday’s report of a slightly weaker than expected Canadian GDP. The pair is currently quoted at 1.2502.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD was not much affected by yesterday’s stronger British economy growth report. The important news for the pair was much weaker PMI, which sent the cable down to 1.5651.

Ahead in the day, investors are viewing ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the U.S.


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Thursday, July 2nd


NZD/USD fell amid easing expectations by the central bank and possible rate lowering in New Zealand. The pair is trading at 0.6677 with resistance level at 0.6790.

AUD/USD is declining for the second consecutive day after data showed trade balance deficit was considerably wider than expected in Australia. The aussie is quoted at 0.7613 against its American equivalent. The support is likely to be found near 0.7591 level.

The U.S. dollar index was flat at 96.47 despite yesterday’s strong economic data: ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations by 0.4 points reaching 53.5 and ADP Non-farm Employment Change was 237K with 218K expected.

GBP/USD remained mostly unchanged after yesterday’s fall amid weaker Manufacturing PMI . The cable is still struggling near 1.5584and investors are viewing the British Construction PMI today. It is likely that pound will find support near 1.5526 if the data is worse than expected and resistance at 1.5677 in case of a stronger PMI reading.

USD/JPY is back above 123.00 currently quoted at 123.51.

The euro traded between small gains and losses in Asia. The single currency is worth $1.1054 after today’s lowest of 1.1032.

Ahead in the day, all attention is on Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate in the U.S.


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Friday, July 3rd

NZD/USD is quoted at 0.6696 after Non-farm Payrolls data sent the pair little lower. The number of people employed in the U.S. during the previous month (excluding the farming industry) fell to 223K. The unemployment rate in the U.S. is 5.3% - lower than expected. The data is mixed and doesn’t clearly indicate if American economy is gaining momentum for the awaited rate hikes in autumn.

AUD/USD reacted negatively on poor May’s retail sales data. The aussie is quoted at 0.7560 and the bearish trend is likely to continue next week.

GBP/USD wasn’t much affected by the British services PMI positive report. The cable is trading at 1.5613 after this week’s lows of 1.5561.

EUR/USD trade kept steady in Asia before the Greek referendum on Sunday.

The yen strengthened a little on Thursday. This morning USD/JPY is trading at 123.00 level. The support can be found at 122.20 and resistance at 123.75.

Ahead in the day, lower liquidity for precious metals is expected due to celebration of U.S. Independence Day. The regular trading conditions will resume on Monday, but be prepared for higher volatility amid Greek referendum.

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Monday, July 6th

EUR/USD fell sharply this morning hitting the 1.0970 level after Greeks voted “No” to the bailout package proposed by the creditors. This accounts to 1.4% drop compared to the Friday’s closing price. Currently, the pair is located at 1.1065 with support and resistance levels at 1.0945 and 1.1125, respectively.

NZD/USD was broadly lower today opening at 0.6653 in Asia. Negative U.S. Non-farm Payrolls data of last week didn’t give the kiwi any medium-term support and the bearish trend is likely to continue this week without any significant news coming out from New Zealand.

AUD/USD also dipped to 0.7462, which was its six-year lows. It is unclear if the aussie is going to weaken any further this week, especially ahead of tomorrow’s Interest Rate decision in Australia. It was said that RBA might stick to low interest rates in favour of giving the economy time for recovery. The support for Australian dollar is located at 0.7435 and resistance at 0.7585.

GBP/USD is moving sideways today after opening at 1.5557 in Asia. The British Manufacturing Production data coming out tomorrow is going to add some volatility to the trade but it is unlikely to reverse this medium-term bearish trend.

Swiss CPI data came out higher than expected. The current price is 0.9426. Investors are viewing the 0.9535 level as passing it would give a sign of a more long-term bullish trend. The SNB’s negative interest rates are aimed at keeping the CHF cheaper, but market has been watching a more or less consolidated movement of USD/CHF since the beginning of May.

USD/JPY is back below 123.00 level currently located at 122.68.

USD/CAD has seen a considerable rise over the last three weeks hitting the highs of 1.2633. The trade will be very volatile in the afternoon when ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Canadian Ivey PMI come out at the same time. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2575.

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Tuesday, July 7th


EUR/USD opened today’s trade at 1.1055 in Asia as Greece received hard news from IMF about Fund’s inability to provide the country with any additional funding. Since the opening of the market, the single currency slid down to 1.1025 and further falls are expected ahead in the day.

AUD/USD dropped to 0.7477 amid Reserve Bank of Australia keeping the interest rate unchanged at 2.00%. The markets will be monitoring the Australian data for confirmation of economic rebound. Otherwise, the interest rates are more than likely to go down in course of further easing, pulling AUD lower. The support and resistance levels are at 0.7443 and 0.7571, respectively.

NZD/USD followed the Australian counterpart dipping down on the discouraging NZIER Business Confidence survey for Q2. The pair is traded at 0.6654 and remains in red as the bearish trend continues.

The U.S. dollar index was stronger – up 0.11% to 96.53.

GBP/USD is erasing yesterday’s gains in anticipation of British Manufacturing production due later in the day. The cable is quoted at 1.5568 but the main developments of the pair’s movement will be determined by the manufacturing data. Support is likely to be found at 1.5492.

Ahead in the day, the Canadian and U.S. Trade balance data is due, so higher volatility is expected for USD/CAD.

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Wednesday, July 8th

USD/JPY is broadly lower after positive data from Japan contributed to the strengthening of yen. The Japanese adjusted current account was 1.64T as opposed to 1.38T expected. The current account n.s.a. in May was 1.881T exceeding the expectations by 0.339T. The bank lending rose 2.5% in June – a slight dip from 2.6% in May. The yen is below 122.00 at 121.53.

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Thursday, July 9th

AUD/USD broadly higher after positive reports on the Employment change. The unemployment rate in Australia also did not reach the expected level and additional support was offered by Chinese CPI data. The pair is traded at 0.7478 with support levels at 0.7320, 0.7338 and 0.7357. The resistance level is at 0.7483.



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