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Wednesday, August 30th

The EUR/USD pair keeps its offered tone, having lost more than a cent since its multiyear tops, marked yesterday in the region of 1.2070. By the moment of writing, the pair was trading around the mid-point of 1.19 level, extending its retreat from yesterday peaks. Pair’s sharp reversal can be mainly attributed to broad profit taking actions after its strong bullish rally, triggered by recent events from the Korean Peninsula and widespread sell-off of the US currency. Adding to this seems that fears of further escalation of situation on the Korean Peninsula are fading away, which in turn also weighs the main currency pair on Wednesday. Later today, the US dollar price dynamics and broad risk trend will continue to navigate the pair throughout this trading session, while bloc of fundamentals from the US economy will be able to bring fresh impetus to the major later during the NA session.

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Friday, September 1st

The EUR/USD pair continues to stay under selling pressure lately, however, having bounced off its weekly lows, marked yesterday at 1.1823 level. According to recent headlines, ECB members begin to show concerns about stronger positions of the euro that negatively affects the pair, forcing it to expand retreat from its multiyear highs, posted earlier this week. These recent news have forced the market to reconsider its expectations regarding tapering ECB's QE program, and since the regulator's meeting will take place next week, the single currency reacted sharply to these speculations. However, expected that the pair won’t show any sharp moves during European trading session, as investors refrain from placing any important directional bets ahead of key events. Today the US will release the NFP data report, which will become the main catalyst for the pair during this trading session.

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Monday, September 4th

The EUR/USD pair opened today with a bullish gap, consolidating its positions near the level of 1.1880 during the Asian session on the back of recent news that North Korea successfully tested a hydrogen bomb, which has triggered new wave of risk aversions across the market. The reaction of the market on the latest events is not a surprise, as persisting nervousness, backed by ongoing tensions around the Korean Peninsula, grips the market for the last couple of weeks. However, the pair managed to break out of its consolidation phase and rose above the level of 1.1900 in the European morning, as risk-off sentiments are supporting euro’s funding currency status. Moreover, Friday’s disappointing US jobs data, which dampened hopes of a Dec Fed rate hike, also collaborates with pair’s upside at the start of this week. Expected that the pair will continue to show low volatility level today amid thin trading conditions, backed by lack of any important data releases from the European economic calendar and the Labor Day holiday in the US markets.

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Wednesday, September 6th

The EUR/USD pair shows subdued trading activity at the middle of this week, consolidation its positions in the 1.1920-30 tight range. Seems that the euro ignores broad retreat of the US dollar, as investors remain cautious ahead of the ECB meeting. Expected that the regulator will keep its policy stance mostly unchanged, while any dovish comments of ECB President Mario Draghi regarding QE program tapering and higher exchange rate of the common currency could bring strong bearish pressure on the pair this Thursday. Today the European economic calendar will remain broadly silent, while the US will release only the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report, so the US dollar dynamics, weakened by yesterday’s dovish Fedspeaks, and broad risk-off trend will continue to exert some influence on the pair.

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Thursday, September 7th

The EUR/USD pair came out of its overnight phase of consolidation to the upside, having refreshed its daily tops at 1.1944 on the back of continuing retreat of the buck against its main competitors. However, further sharp moves of the pair are unlikely amid increased nervousness of investors ahead of the key ECB policy event. Expected that the ECB will keep its policy stance unchanged, while investors are awaiting for ECB President M.Draghi’s Q&A session, which will be able to shed some light on further ECB monetary policy steps. The key topic that investors would like to hear about during ECB Press Conference remains QE program tapering. More hawkish comments of ECB President M.Draghi might spark fresh speculations regarding divergence between the ECB and Fed, which will cause increased volatility level across the market. Besides the ECB meeting, nothing important is scheduled in economic calendar for the pair, so investors will keep their attention focused on the key event of this day.

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Friday, September 8th

The EUR/USD pair trades on the positive territory at the end of this week, having refreshed its tops at 1.2092, last seen on December 2014. However, the pair corrected slightly lower this morning, as investors lock in some profits after yesterday’s enormous rally, triggered by press conference of ECB President Mario Draghi. On Thursday, Mr.Draghi didn’t focus on the issue of higher positions of the euro, but stressed that the European economy continues to demonstrate positive dynamics. Moreover, the head of the regulator left doors opened for another big announcement, saying that the bank will take its decision on the QE program probably in October. Another factor, which negatively influences the dollar today, remains uninformative speech of Fed member W.Dudley, who said that gradual increase of the interest rate is coming, however, giving no clues on when to expect next monetary policy tightening measures. On the data front, today the economic calendar lacks of any market moving releases, so the US dollar price dynamics will continue to determine pair’s further trajectory.

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Monday, September 11th

The EUR/USD pair came under moderate selling pressure this morning, after ECB member Benoit Coeure delivered his speech, which was perceived by markets as dovish. Mr. Coeure stated that the monetary policy of the ECB would remain accommodative for longer period due to lower-than-expected inflation growth pace. Moreover, continuing correction of the major currency pair from its multiyear highs, after its enormous rally, backed by ECB President M.Draghi promises to make a decision on the QE program in October, and recovery of the US dollar across the market will remain key driving factors for EUR/USD in the day ahead. On the data front, today both data calendars will keep silence, bringing nothing to spark volatility on the pair, so broad market trend will continue to determine EUR/USD’s further trajectory.

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Tuesday, September 12th

The EUR/USD pair trades with a positive bias, having regained its positions above the level of 1.1950, on the back of broad retreat of the US dollar. Seems that US bulls ran out of steam today after confident start of this trading week, allowing the major currency pair to recover some part of its yesterday’s drawdown. However, slightly improved demand for higher-yielding assets, underpinned by easing tensions over the conflict around North Korea, exerts pressure on the common currency on Tuesday. On the data front, today European data calendar won’t provide the market with any data releases, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend, but during the NA session the speech by Vice-President of the European Central Bank Vitor Constancio and the JOLTs job openings report will be able to spark some volatility on the pair.

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Thursday, September 14th

Today the GBP/USD pair consolidates its positions near the level of 1.3200 amid broad cautiousness, triggered by upcoming BoE meeting. On Wednesday, the pair came under strong selling pressure, losing more than a cent from its yearly tops, posted at 1.3329 during previous trading session. Pair’s retreat could explained by renewed demand for the US dollar, backed by recent headlines that US President D.Trump’s administration is planning to announce new framework for tax legislation in about two weeks. However, it is expected that the pair will continue to demonstrate subdued trading activity, as we are heading towards the key event of this week – BoE interest rate decision. According to market’s expectations, the regulator will keep its rate unchanged, while any comments from MPC regarding Bank’s further monetary policy projection, especially in light of the latest UK inflation figures, will be able to set up pair’s further trajectory. Besides BoE meeting, investors will also pay attention to the US CPI print, which will affect investors’ estimations regarding a Dec Fed rate hike.

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Monday, September 18th

The EUR/USD pair came out of its consolidation range to the downside at the European opening on the back of attempts of the US dollar to correct higher across the market. However, further downside of the pair looks limited, as cautious sentiments amid investors are gathering pace on the back of upcoming FOMC meeting due later in the week. It is expected that the regulator won’t change its interest rate level, while any comments from Fed members will be highly influential, especially taking into account recent positive US CPI data. Moreover, broad weakness of the US dollar today will continue lend support to the pair in the day ahead. On the data front, the EU CPI data will remain the key data release of the pair, as the US data calendar will keep silence on Monday, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend during this trading session.

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