Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest from Forex.ee

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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee​

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Monday, May 14th

The EUR/USD pair remains positive for the third session in a row, having refreshed its weekly highs on the level of 1.1974. Today broad-based retreat of the greenback, triggered by weak inflation figures, remains the key navigator across the market, offering support to the pair. Moreover, US bulls remain exhausted after recent massive rally, which was underpinned by prospects of more aggressive Fed monetary policy this year. However, markets have eased odds of a fourth rate hike in 2018 in wake of recent weaker-than-expected US economic data. On the data front, today the economic calendar will remain silent, offering only secondary data reports, so widespread market trend will be the key determinant for the pair during the first trading session of this week.

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Tuesday, May 15th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Tuesday, retreating from its yesterday’s highs, marked in the vicinity of 1.2000. Renewed downside trend of the pair can be mostly explained by upside correction of the US dollar against its major rivals. It seems that markets have already digested recent disappointing US inflation figures, allowing the greenback to regain control over the market, thereby forming downside trend for the pair. As for the economic releases, today we have data-heavy session, as the economic calendar will bring us German ZEW surveys, preliminary EZ GDP figures and US retail sales, which will help the pair to form its further trajectory. However, broad market trend, partially determined by the US dollar price dynamics, will also be able to influence pair’s further actions.

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Thursday, May 17th

The EUR/USD pair lost its bullish tone in early Europe and returned to the region of 1.1800. In Asia, the pair was trading on a positive note in wake of ongoing correction of the US dollar, which allowed the pair to refresh its intraday highs on the level of 1.1837. However, the pair failed to extend its correction and returned to the area of 1.1800. Renewed weakness of the pair could be partially explained by uncertainty on the political field of Italy. As it was reported earlier, Italy's 5 Star movement and League parties are going to form a coalition. Both these parties have showed itself as nationalistic and anti-EU, so investors are considering negative consequences, which may cause the coalition. Looking ahead, today the EU calendar will offer investors only second-tier data reports, so investors will remain in anticipation of the Philly Fed manufacturing index, which will be able to spark some volatility across the market during the NA session.

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Friday, May 18th

The EUR/USD pair trades with mild bullish bias this Friday, keeping its positions above the level of 1.1800, after brief consolidation phase, witnessed during the previous NA session. It seems that the pair has finally stalled its downside trend after four consecutive days at a loss. The main reason of pair’s recent recovery can be called another downside correction of the US dollar against its major rivals. However, the pair remains under notable bearish pressured lately, as significantly increased divergence between the Fed and ECB continues weighing on the common currency. In the day ahead, the broad market trend will remain the exclusive driver for the pair, as economic calendar won’t bring us anything relevant this Friday.

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Tuesday, May 22nd

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend, having stalled its downside trend, however, remaining within striking distance of its half-year lows, marked on the level of 1.1717 on Monday. Today slight correction of the US dollar after its bullish rally against major competitors remains the main theme across the market, allowing major currencies to recover some ground. However, further growth of the pair looks limited, as the formation of a populist coalition in Italy increases concerns, especially in regards to the fiscal policy of the new government. Looking ahead, today nothing much is scheduled in both economic calendars, so investors will remain in anticipation of next important events - the FOMC minutes due for tomorrow and the ECB minutes, which will be released on Thursday.

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Wednesday, May 23rd

The EUR/USD pair resumed its downside trend, having refreshed 5-month lows in the vicinity of 1.1700 level, due to disappointing German data. Yesterday the pair tested the region of 1.1830, as US bulls eased pressure on the pair, having taken a brief breather. However, the major failed to keep its positive tone and came under bearish control due to uncertainty on the political field of Italy. Markets remain worried that new populist government's fiscal policy will negatively affect the economy of Italy. Furthermore, weaker-than-expected German PMI figures, published this morning, also had a negative impact on the pair, forcing it to drop to its recent lows. Now all markets’ attention shifts towards the US data and FOMC meeting minutes, which will help the pair to determine its further direction during the NY trades.

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Thursday, May 24th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Thursday, trying to correct from its 6-month lows, located on the level of 1.1676. Today downside correction of the US dollar remains the main underlying theme, giving the major currencies another chance to recover the ground. Yesterday the Fed released minutes from its last meeting, which showed that the committee is not going to accelerate the pace of rate increase, thereby sending the US dollar lower across the board. Nevertheless, the Fed members agreed that if inflation continues to grow at the same pace, then a rate hike in the near future might be appropriate. As for the data, now it is ECB’s turn to publish meeting minutes, while investors will also pay attention to the US data from the housing, which will be released during NY trades.

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Monday, May 28th

The EUR/USD pair opened this week with a bullish gap of 35 pips and returned above the level of 1.1700. Today’s upside trend of the pair can be mainly explained by increased buying interest around the common currency, as the Five Star Movement and League failed to form a ruling coalition in Italy. Increased demand for the euro triggered retreat of the US dollar across the market. However, further gains of the pair look limited, as the greenback benefits from the easing tensions between the US and N. Korea. According to the latest tweets of the US President, the US team has arrived in North Korea to make arrangements for the Summit, thereby reviving hopes that the meeting between leaders will take place in June. On the data front, nothing much is scheduled in the data calendar for this Monday, so broad market trend will continue to determine pair’s further direction during this trading session.

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Wednesday, May 30th

The EUR/USD pair recovered some pips in Asia after its retreat to 10-month lows, backed by increasing political jitters in Italy. According to the latest news, snap elections in Italy could take place at some point during July. Fresh elections in Italy may provide a stronger mandate to anti-EU parties. However, the pair managed to recover minor part of its recent losses, as the US dollar stalled its bullish run, offering another respite to the major currencies this Wednesday. On the data front, during European trades investors will focus their attention on the German unemployment data, while the US will offer markets preliminary GDP estimates and ADP employment report, which will form pair’s near-term trajectory this Wednesday.

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Thursday, May 31st

The EUR/USD pair remains positive for the second consecutive session, having bounced off its half-year lows on Wednesday, located in the vicinity of 1.1500. Today the pair extends its upside correction and in early Europe broke through the level of 1.1700 that can be mainly explained by downside correction of the US dollar, which was additionally underpinned by yesterday’s weak ADP jobs data. Moreover, the lack of news regarding political developments in Italy also eased pressure on the common currency this Thursday. As for the data, today the EZ data calendar will bring us important CPI figures, while the US will offer us the home pending sales report, which will help the pair to form its near-term trajectory.

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