Forex News Trading Plans for Week 46, Nov 10 – Nov 16 2013

Peter O

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
4,788

What is news trading? How does forex news trading work?

Forex News Trading can be extremely profitable if you have an understanding of fundamental analysis and have access to low latency forex trading software. Sounds too complex or expensive? Do not worry, Forex Peace Army analyst will help you to identify high-probability tradable economic news reports and advise on the trading strategy. Best of all: Forex News Gun - automated forex trading software is free for all. You find all details on Forex News Gun forum and if you want make pips easier you can find additional tools at Forex Tactical Squad.

-–––———————————————————————————————————–––-

Hello Fellow Traders,

On this week (November 10 - November 16) we have 3 tradable releases:


-–––————— Tuesday, November 12 —————–––-
(brief summary)
UKCPI4:30am NY timeFNG + DTS


-–––————— Wednesday, November 13 —————–––-
(brief summary)
New ZealandRetail Sales4:45pm NY timeFNG


-–––————— Thursday, November 14 —————–––-
(brief summary)
UKRetail Sales4:30am NY timeFNG + DTS



Sincerely,
Peter
 
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--–––––——————————————————————————————————————–––––--

Forex News Gun Trade Plan

UK CPI - 4:30am NY time (Tuesday, November 12)

--–––––————————————————————–––––--​

Traded pairExpected figureDeviation trigger
GBPUSD2.5 (%)±0.3 (%)
BuyGBPUSDif actual figure is or is above2.8 (%)
SellGBPUSDif actual figure is or is below2.2 (%)

Expected move during first 30 minutes after the release is 20 pips or more.


--–––––————— FNG Configuration —————–––––--

Release name in FNG client: UK CPI EU Harmonized YoY

Clicks: first row is for Sell GBPUSD button, second one is for Buy GBPUSD button:




--–––––————— Detailed Trade Plan —————–––––--​

1. Start trade terminal
- Open your trade terminal and open an order sending dialog with Buy and Sell buttons.​
- Select GBPUSD pair.​
- Set your lot size - use your constant risk level on balance.​

2. Start Forex News Gun client
- Open your Forex News Gun client ( and ) and click 'Connect...'.​
- Drag the FNG window aside in order to make trade terminal's Buy and Sell buttons visible.​

3. Set a click
- Click the 'Set Click' button in the row of UK CPI.​
- Double click on first row's 'Range To' cell. Type '2.2' and hit Enter.​
- Click first row's 'Click Location' button.​
- Drag the mouse cursor over the terminal's Sell button but don't click. We just show FNG where it is by pressing 'S' key while mouse cursor is over the Sell button. You will see the screen coordinates appearing in the FNG client.​
- Double click on second row's 'Range From' cell. Type '2.8' and hit Enter.​
- Drag the mouse cursor over the terminal's Buy button but don't click. Press 'S' key there to register button location in FNG client.​
- Click OK on this 'Set Clicks' window​

4. Keep trading environment intact
- Make sure that your pc, trade terminal and FNG client is running at the time of the release: Tuesday, November 12, 4:30am NY time.​
- Make sure that trade terminal's Buy and Sell buttons are visible at that time in order to catch screen clicks from FNG client.​

Now you have an automated news trading entry environment that will enter the market in a fraction of a second if this release figure hits the deviation. Nevertheless, don't forget to be at the PC at the time of the release in order to manage your position and to take that pips on the first spike that lasts no longer than several minutes.

I cannot tell you where to exit in relation to your entry, because entries during news vary greatly, due to different spreads, slippage, and other factors. For this reason, it’s extremely important that you review historical charts for UK CPI, where the same deviation of at least 0.3 occurred. Click here to see such history: UK CPI history of charts.

Once there, set filter to Difference Actual-Forecast >= 0.3 and click "Filter" to see list of charts.

If the release figure doesn't hit the deviation then FNG client won't click so you can either close it or set the next release. In this case don't forget to change currency pair if needed according to the new release details. Don't be surprised if most of the releases don't trigger. This is a conservative strategy and according to my statistics only every 4th or 5th release opens a position by hitting the deviation.

You can try to make money "while you sleep" with this. To do that, set it up on stable computer or server with stable internet connection, and pre-set your stop/loss and take/profit targets with your broker. As long as the platform and FNG remain open, your trade will be executed and exited automatically.

To get even more creative with FNG, when setting up clicks, you can set up first click instantly on let’s say "Buy". Then you can set up second click with let’s say 20 minutes delay on let’s say "Sell" to automatically close your buy trade 20 minutes later. To do that, simply put 20 into the MM field next to the second click, and identify the "Sell" location. HH stands for hours. MM stands for minutes. SS stands for seconds. MS stands for milliseconds. The software will delay any click by your specified desired time parameters.

Due to so many releases not hitting the specified parameters, and due to them being released at such different time frames, being able to set it up, and leave it on auto-pilot may be attractive to some people, though it will be more risky.

--–––––——————————————————————————————————————–––––--
O O O
--–––––——————————————————————————————————————–––––--

Diamonds Trading Signals Trade Plan

UK CPI - 4:30am NY time (Tuesday, November 12)

--–––––————————————————————–––––--​

Traded currency pair:GBPUSD
Initial spike duration limit:20 seconds
Initial spike price action threshold:15 pips
Triggering retracement percentage:50 %
Retracement duration limit:60 seconds
Maximum trade hold time after release:15 minutes
Stop loss:10 pips
Take profit:10 pips
Maximum spread:2 pips


  1. Set up single click execution on your broker platform, and if possible, pre-determine default stop/loss and default take/profit to 10 pips, so that when you click to execute your order, your platform will automatically set your stop/loss and take/profit at 10 pips from your entry price. Do not try this with brokers that don’t offer single click execution.

    If your platform does not allow to pre-determine default stop/loss and take/profit, then after entering the trade, simply set the stop/loss and take/profit points manually.

  2. Pull up either tick, 1-second, 3-second, or 5-second chart, and at 04:29:45am, so 15 seconds before the announcement, start paying very close attention to the price action of GBPUSD on your chart.

  3. If between 04:30:00am and 04:30:20am, so during the first 20 seconds after the report, you see GBPUSD move up or down by 15 pips or more, then enter in the direction of the initial spike at the very first 50% retracement if it occurs in 60 seconds from release time (till 04:31:00am) – and if spread at the time of your entry is at 2 pips or less. Set stop/loss at 10 pips, and set take/profit at 10 pips.

    The retracement will happen within seconds. Don’t draw anything on your chart, and don’t try to get a perfect entry. As soon as you see approximately 50% retracement on your chart, compared to the initial spike, click to enter without any hesitation.

    If the move either up or down was less than 15 pips during the first 20 seconds, then the actual number of the report did not generate sufficient interest in the market, and you simply skip the trade. If your spread at the time of desired entry is more than 2 pips, then skip the trade.

  4. If by 04:45:00am, so 15 minutes after the report release, neither your stop/loss nor your take/profit points were hit, then close the trade automatically at market price of the time.


Previous Example: on January 25 2013, at 4:30am, UK CPI number was released, so in the first 20 seconds, the price of GBPUSD spiked down by 42.1 pips from 1.58097 to 1.57676. Then price started retracing, and within about 90 seconds retraced to 20% level of 1.57759 but it didn't continue retracing. This retracement was lower than trade plan's minimal 50% level so we didn't enter the market.


Be patient, and do at least 20 "second wave" trades, before getting frustrated and quitting.

Once you become good at it, you will be able to win on average 7 to 8 out of 10 trades.

Keep win to loss ratio at 1:1. Tweak it only after you are consistently profitable with 1:1.

Remember, it does not matter whether you make or lose 10 pips or 100 pips on a trade. What matters is how much money you make or lose on a trade. When risking 10 pips, simply put up 10 times more lots than you would when you risk 100 pips, and at the end you will make or lose the same amount of money. Yes, spread to pips targeted ratio matters, but these news "second wave" moves have such high probability of success that they somehow make up for the very high spread to pips targeted ratio (2 to 10), which is a small miracle in itself.


--–––––——————————————————————————————————————–––––--​
 
Last edited by a moderator:

--–––––——————————————————————————————————————–––––--

Forex News Gun Trade Plan

New Zealand Retail Sales - 4:45pm NY time (Wednesday, November 13)

--–––––————————————————————–––––--​

Traded pairExpected figureDeviation trigger
NZDUSD1.0 (%)±0.5 (%)
BuyNZDUSDif actual figure is or is above1.5 (%)
SellNZDUSDif actual figure is or is below0.5 (%)

Expected move during first 30 minutes after the release is 20 pips or more.


--–––––————— FNG Configuration —————–––––--

Release name in FNG client: New Zealand Retail Sales

Clicks: first row is for Sell NZDUSD button, second one is for Buy NZDUSD button:




--–––––————— Detailed Trade Plan —————–––––--​

1. Start trade terminal
- Open your trade terminal and open an order sending dialog with Buy and Sell buttons.​
- Select NZDUSD pair.​
- Set your lot size - use your constant risk level on balance.​

2. Start Forex News Gun client
- Open your Forex News Gun client ( and ) and click 'Connect...'.​
- Drag the FNG window aside in order to make trade terminal's Buy and Sell buttons visible.​

3. Set a click
- Click the 'Set Click' button in the row of New Zealand Retail Sales.​
- Double click on first row's 'Range To' cell. Type '0.5' and hit Enter.​
- Click first row's 'Click Location' button.​
- Drag the mouse cursor over the terminal's Sell button but don't click. We just show FNG where it is by pressing 'S' key while mouse cursor is over the Sell button. You will see the screen coordinates appearing in the FNG client.​
- Double click on second row's 'Range From' cell. Type '1.5' and hit Enter.​
- Drag the mouse cursor over the terminal's Buy button but don't click. Press 'S' key there to register button location in FNG client.​
- Click OK on this 'Set Clicks' window​

4. Keep trading environment intact
- Make sure that your pc, trade terminal and FNG client is running at the time of the release: Wednesday, November 13, 4:45pm NY time.​
- Make sure that trade terminal's Buy and Sell buttons are visible at that time in order to catch screen clicks from FNG client.​

Now you have an automated news trading entry environment that will enter the market in a fraction of a second if this release figure hits the deviation. Nevertheless, don't forget to be at the PC at the time of the release in order to manage your position and to take that pips on the first spike that lasts no longer than several minutes.

I cannot tell you where to exit in relation to your entry, because entries during news vary greatly, due to different spreads, slippage, and other factors. For this reason, it’s extremely important that you review historical charts for New Zealand Retail Sales, where the same deviation of at least 0.5 occurred. Click here to see such history: New Zealand Retail Sales history of charts.

Once there, set filter to Difference Actual-Forecast >= 0.5 and click "Filter" to see list of charts.

If the release figure doesn't hit the deviation then FNG client won't click so you can either close it or set the next release. In this case don't forget to change currency pair if needed according to the new release details. Don't be surprised if most of the releases don't trigger. This is a conservative strategy and according to my statistics only every 4th or 5th release opens a position by hitting the deviation.

You can try to make money "while you sleep" with this. To do that, set it up on stable computer or server with stable internet connection, and pre-set your stop/loss and take/profit targets with your broker. As long as the platform and FNG remain open, your trade will be executed and exited automatically.

To get even more creative with FNG, when setting up clicks, you can set up first click instantly on let’s say "Buy". Then you can set up second click with let’s say 20 minutes delay on let’s say "Sell" to automatically close your buy trade 20 minutes later. To do that, simply put 20 into the MM field next to the second click, and identify the "Sell" location. HH stands for hours. MM stands for minutes. SS stands for seconds. MS stands for milliseconds. The software will delay any click by your specified desired time parameters.

Due to so many releases not hitting the specified parameters, and due to them being released at such different time frames, being able to set it up, and leave it on auto-pilot may be attractive to some people, though it will be more risky.

--–––––——————————————————————————————————————–––––--​
 
Last edited by a moderator:

--–––––——————————————————————————————————————–––––--

Forex News Gun Trade Plan

UK Retail Sales - 4:30am NY time (Thursday, November 14)

--–––––————————————————————–––––--​

Traded pairExpected figureDeviation trigger
GBPUSD0.3 (%)±0.4 (%)
BuyGBPUSDif actual figure is or is above0.7 (%)
SellGBPUSDif actual figure is or is below-0.1 (%)

Expected move during first 20 minutes after the release is 20 pips or more.


--–––––————— FNG Configuration —————–––––--

Release name in FNG client: UK Retail Sales (MoM)

Clicks: first row is for Sell GBPUSD button, second one is for Buy GBPUSD button:




--–––––————— Detailed Trade Plan —————–––––--​

1. Start trade terminal
- Open your trade terminal and open an order sending dialog with Buy and Sell buttons.​
- Select GBPUSD pair.​
- Set your lot size - use your constant risk level on balance.​

2. Start Forex News Gun client
- Open your Forex News Gun client ( and ) and click 'Connect...'.​
- Drag the FNG window aside in order to make trade terminal's Buy and Sell buttons visible.​

3. Set a click
- Click the 'Set Click' button in the row of UK Retail Sales.​
- Double click on first row's 'Range To' cell. Type '-0.1' and hit Enter.​
- Click first row's 'Click Location' button.​
- Drag the mouse cursor over the terminal's Sell button but don't click. We just show FNG where it is by pressing 'S' key while mouse cursor is over the Sell button. You will see the screen coordinates appearing in the FNG client.​
- Double click on second row's 'Range From' cell. Type '0.7' and hit Enter.​
- Drag the mouse cursor over the terminal's Buy button but don't click. Press 'S' key there to register button location in FNG client.​
- Click OK on this 'Set Clicks' window​

4. Keep trading environment intact
- Make sure that your pc, trade terminal and FNG client is running at the time of the release: Thursday, November 14, 4:30am NY time.​
- Make sure that trade terminal's Buy and Sell buttons are visible at that time in order to catch screen clicks from FNG client.​

Now you have an automated news trading entry environment that will enter the market in a fraction of a second if this release figure hits the deviation. Nevertheless, don't forget to be at the PC at the time of the release in order to manage your position and to take that pips on the first spike that lasts no longer than several minutes.

I cannot tell you where to exit in relation to your entry, because entries during news vary greatly, due to different spreads, slippage, and other factors. For this reason, it’s extremely important that you review historical charts for UK Retail Sales, where the same deviation of at least 0.4 occurred. Click here to see such history: UK Retail Sales history of charts.

Once there, set filter to Difference Actual-Forecast >= 0.4 and click "Filter" to see list of charts.

If the release figure doesn't hit the deviation then FNG client won't click so you can either close it or set the next release. In this case don't forget to change currency pair if needed according to the new release details. Don't be surprised if most of the releases don't trigger. This is a conservative strategy and according to my statistics only every 4th or 5th release opens a position by hitting the deviation.

You can try to make money "while you sleep" with this. To do that, set it up on stable computer or server with stable internet connection, and pre-set your stop/loss and take/profit targets with your broker. As long as the platform and FNG remain open, your trade will be executed and exited automatically.

To get even more creative with FNG, when setting up clicks, you can set up first click instantly on let’s say "Buy". Then you can set up second click with let’s say 20 minutes delay on let’s say "Sell" to automatically close your buy trade 20 minutes later. To do that, simply put 20 into the MM field next to the second click, and identify the "Sell" location. HH stands for hours. MM stands for minutes. SS stands for seconds. MS stands for milliseconds. The software will delay any click by your specified desired time parameters.

Due to so many releases not hitting the specified parameters, and due to them being released at such different time frames, being able to set it up, and leave it on auto-pilot may be attractive to some people, though it will be more risky.

--–––––——————————————————————————————————————–––––--
O O O
--–––––——————————————————————————————————————–––––--

Diamonds Trading Signals Trade Plan

UK Retail Sales - 4:30am NY time (Thursday, November 14)

--–––––————————————————————–––––--​

Traded currency pair:GBPUSD
Initial spike duration limit:15 seconds
Initial spike price action threshold:12 pips
Triggering retracement percentage:35 %
Retracement duration limit:40 seconds
Maximum trade hold time after release:10 minutes
Stop loss:10 pips
Take profit:10 pips
Maximum spread:2 pips


  1. Set up single click execution on your broker platform, and if possible, pre-determine default stop/loss and default take/profit to 10 pips, so that when you click to execute your order, your platform will automatically set your stop/loss and take/profit at 10 pips from your entry price. Do not try this with brokers that don’t offer single click execution.

    If your platform does not allow to pre-determine default stop/loss and take/profit, then after entering the trade, simply set the stop/loss and take/profit points manually.

  2. Pull up either tick, 1-second, 3-second, or 5-second chart, and at 04:29:45am, so 15 seconds before the announcement, start paying very close attention to the price action of GBPUSD on your chart.

  3. If between 04:30:00am and 04:30:15am, so during the first 15 seconds after the report, you see GBPUSD move up or down by 12 pips or more, then enter in the direction of the initial spike at the very first 35% retracement if it occurs in 40 seconds from release time (till 04:30:40am) – and if spread at the time of your entry is at 2 pips or less. Set stop/loss at 10 pips, and set take/profit at 10 pips.

    The retracement will happen within seconds. Don’t draw anything on your chart, and don’t try to get a perfect entry. As soon as you see approximately 35% retracement on your chart, compared to the initial spike, click to enter without any hesitation.

    If the move either up or down was less than 12 pips during the first 15 seconds, then the actual number of the report did not generate sufficient interest in the market, and you simply skip the trade. If your spread at the time of desired entry is more than 2 pips, then skip the trade.

  4. If by 04:40:00am, so 10 minutes after the report release, neither your stop/loss nor your take/profit points were hit, then close the trade automatically at market price of the time.


Previous Example: on April 20 2012, at 4:30am, UK Retail Sales number was released, so in the first 10 seconds, the price of GBPUSD spiked up by 31.9 pips from 1.60822 to 1.61141. Then price started retracing, and within about 25 seconds retraced to 31% level of 1.61041 but it didn't continue retracing. This retracement was lower than trade plan's minimal 35% level so we didn't enter the market.


Be patient, and do at least 20 "second wave" trades, before getting frustrated and quitting.

Once you become good at it, you will be able to win on average 7 to 8 out of 10 trades.

Keep win to loss ratio at 1:1. Tweak it only after you are consistently profitable with 1:1.

Remember, it does not matter whether you make or lose 10 pips or 100 pips on a trade. What matters is how much money you make or lose on a trade. When risking 10 pips, simply put up 10 times more lots than you would when you risk 100 pips, and at the end you will make or lose the same amount of money. Yes, spread to pips targeted ratio matters, but these news "second wave" moves have such high probability of success that they somehow make up for the very high spread to pips targeted ratio (2 to 10), which is a small miracle in itself.


--–––––——————————————————————————————————————–––––--​
 
Last edited by a moderator:
NEW YORK, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Global equity markets and government debt prices fell on Tuesday as investors worried about the Federal Reserve reducing its stimulus, a critical support for asset prices and the economy.

German Bunds hit three-week lows, tracking weaker prices for U.S. Treasuries, as investors made room for this week's latest supply of U.S. government debt.
 
two questions

Dear Peter
Yesterday I was trying to trade FNG on NZD retail sales. Although the trigger was met and the numbers were negative for NZD, I have noticed a loss (don't worry, on demo of course ;-). Your triggers are extremely safe. Although it was even exceeded (-0.6), te price went onward to opposite side. I understand your philosophy of picking up low hanging fruits and i do not require the price should do what I want, but what I'm asking is how often such situation occures, i.e. even if your deep, safe trigger is met you are getting loss?
Second issue are differences between forecasted numbers issued at FF, your brief summary of the trade and pre-set on FNG. Today during UK retail sales FF printed 0.0, in your brief it was 0.3 and FNG pre-set was -0.1. The difference between your prediction and pre-set on FNG was even to the trigger!! How to interprete this? Should I stick to FNG presets as it is the last estimation? Or else? Thanks in advance for your feedback.
Wojtek
 
FNG

Dear Peter,

Can u tell me which spread is better trading for the above matter , is it fixed spread or variable spread because if fixed spread ,it will requote if spread widen and won't lose money but if variable spread will widen , it will lose money because it won't hit the stoploss that i place pending order before the news release. So please give advise?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dear Peter,

Can u tell me which spread is better trading for the above matter , is it fixed spread or variable spread because if fixed spread ,it will requote if spread widen and won't lose money but if variable spread will widen , it will lose money because it won't hit the stoploss that i place pending order before the news release. So please give advise?


Hi Voon,

If I was a broker I could be fair or fraudulent with both methods. It's a bit more transparent with fixed spread as in this case brokers need to write in terms and conditions how big the spread will be with economic releases. However, requotes are always there if an explanation needed. So I can't tell you any better then try to find a trustworthy broker.

Peter
 
Dear Peter
Yesterday I was trying to trade FNG on NZD retail sales. Although the trigger was met and the numbers were negative for NZD, I have noticed a loss (don't worry, on demo of course ;-). Your triggers are extremely safe. Although it was even exceeded (-0.6), te price went onward to opposite side. I understand your philosophy of picking up low hanging fruits and i do not require the price should do what I want, but what I'm asking is how often such situation occures, i.e. even if your deep, safe trigger is met you are getting loss?
Second issue are differences between forecasted numbers issued at FF, your brief summary of the trade and pre-set on FNG. Today during UK retail sales FF printed 0.0, in your brief it was 0.3 and FNG pre-set was -0.1. The difference between your prediction and pre-set on FNG was even to the trigger!! How to interprete this? Should I stick to FNG presets as it is the last estimation? Or else? Thanks in advance for your feedback.
Wojtek

Hi Wojtek,

For NZD Retail Sales we got 30ish pips in favorable direction in the first several seconds but after a minute we were even about 15pips lower than the prerelease price. After several minutes you easily could get a loser position but with Forex News Gun I don't suggest to keep positions so long - close them at least partially. In a situation like this general market trend can easily overrule event figure in a short period of time. Actually market gives us significant move in favorable direction in about 80% - the question is how efficiently we can enter. I think with a not fraudulent (and otherwise good) broker it's even good to have 50% profitable trades because losses tend to be much less then profits.

Overviewing forecasts again 0.3 for UK Retail Sales seems a bit high to me too. I use more sources for finding out consensus value, sometimes I even take a look at individual valuations. Probably having seen all data that is available now I would write a bit smaller. You can double check forecasts before events and if you find a figure more reasonable you can adjust settings. Actually the strategy is conservative enough that I don't worry about these occasional differences :)

Peter
 
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