Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, December 25 - 29, 2023
- Thread starter Sive Morten
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Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Hi mate, indeed.
Despite tricky situation in Japan, for instance, with all their stuff, such as YCC, raising inflation and ultra soft policy - few days ago I saw an article where it is suggested good times in 2024 for JPY because of safe haven status. World expects more geopolitical escalation in 2024. And countries that are relatively aside, such as Japan and Switzerland easily could get bonuses from this.
The same situation in Switzerland. Yes they have problems in banking sector. We've mentioned J. Baer downgrade, well known UBS-CS saga, but at the same time the have good national fundamentals and it is not a surprise that demand for CHF is raising.
Currently it is difficult to say what SNB will do, but hardly we should get some different practice than we saw before. I sure that they will apply the same interventions if needed and even could hold ceil for CHF as well as it was previously. Last time they held levels around parity, so, why to change something?
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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- 18,673
Morning everybody,
So, we come to the end of the year... Pullback that we've discussed yesterday is started. Not only on EUR but on DXY, bonds etc. Probably this is still a respect of daily COP and butterfly targets, although we thought they have been passed already. But it doesn't change anything, as we use the same levels whether they response on targets or just a separate retracement:
As we've said yesterday, on 4H chart we have a kind of reverse H&S pattern. On daily chart this is just a COP and no overbought. Combination of these factors suggest that the pullback should not be too deep. So we're mostly watching for 1.1043 and 1.0980 K-support levels here:
Now we've got AB-CD pattern on 1H chart, and market already is coming to the 1.1043 support area. Minor butterfly could finalize action to OP. XOP stands in Agreement with 5/8 level, which is also K-support on 4H chart:
In current situation it makes sense to use scale-in entry way. This is more simple. That's all about technical background for now.
The only question that you have to decide - in general, would you want to take position today and hold it through long holidays. It is mostly psychological and money management, risk, question.
So, we come to the end of the year... Pullback that we've discussed yesterday is started. Not only on EUR but on DXY, bonds etc. Probably this is still a respect of daily COP and butterfly targets, although we thought they have been passed already. But it doesn't change anything, as we use the same levels whether they response on targets or just a separate retracement:
As we've said yesterday, on 4H chart we have a kind of reverse H&S pattern. On daily chart this is just a COP and no overbought. Combination of these factors suggest that the pullback should not be too deep. So we're mostly watching for 1.1043 and 1.0980 K-support levels here:
Now we've got AB-CD pattern on 1H chart, and market already is coming to the 1.1043 support area. Minor butterfly could finalize action to OP. XOP stands in Agreement with 5/8 level, which is also K-support on 4H chart:
In current situation it makes sense to use scale-in entry way. This is more simple. That's all about technical background for now.
The only question that you have to decide - in general, would you want to take position today and hold it through long holidays. It is mostly psychological and money management, risk, question.
Matthew Lloyd
Private
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- 10
Hi Sive,
Thanks for all your brilliant analysis through the year, your efforts are very much appreciated. Wishing you a happy, healthy and prosperous 2024.
Would be interested in your thoughts on the AUD for next year.There is a long term XOP around $0.60 that hasn’t been hit-do you think this is where the Aussie might be heading?
Thanks again, Matt
Thanks for all your brilliant analysis through the year, your efforts are very much appreciated. Wishing you a happy, healthy and prosperous 2024.
Would be interested in your thoughts on the AUD for next year.There is a long term XOP around $0.60 that hasn’t been hit-do you think this is where the Aussie might be heading?
Thanks again, Matt
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