FOREX PRO WEEKLY, March 12-16, 2018

[Stag]

...Look for further decline over the rest of the session if base channel breaks....

Prices are above the (i)-(ii) base channel - it is always a warning sign but can be considered normal in a (i)-(ii)-i-ii situation and the outlook remains bearish whilst the Euro trades below the wave ii corrective channel.

This wave 2 pullback should result in a swift and dramatic reversal in wave iii of (iii) if this is the count unfolding. If 1.2384 represents the end of wave ii, it should act as resistance against a rebound.

Any surge above our critical key resistance at 1.2397 would negate the bearish count and would give place for further advance.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi guys,
Stag today is faster than me with analysis, which is very good

So, my opinion - situation has not changed significantly. Daily still stands in a "Buy", grabbers are valid here. Our trading plan for yesterday has been 100% completed, as market has reached 1.2350 K-support area on intraday charts.

On 4-hour chart I was wathing for the pattern and we we've got it - grabber at our K-support area around WPP. So, retracement by Lolly's "222" Sell is done.

Now, following DiNapoli entry technique, we have good setup to apply "Minesweeper A". Market has completed AB=CD down, confirmed K-area and this was an Agreement as well, now it is moving out from it and hourly trend has turned bullish. So using current retracement it is possible to go long with rather close s/l just below K-area and 4-hour grabber's low.
If EUR indeed stands bullish it should not return back and break this level. If it will do it - it means that something is wrong and we should be ready for deeper downside action:

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive sir kindly gimme a brief view of NzdUsd

And dear friend stag plz share your idea too

Thank you

Here is a triangle on eurusd 1hr

Hi Lolly, indeed we haven't talked about NZD for a long time:
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/threads/nzd-usd-daily-video-march-15-2018.54555/
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/threads/gold-pro-weekly-march-12-16-2018.54500/#post-309843

 

[Robban68]

Current level 1.2335 could by nice spot for a long, target 1.256x,
AB. (1.215x-1.2444) = CD (1.227x-1.256)

EUR/USD has been stucked the last 3 months in a 400 pips structure. During this time we have had 2 ECB meetings and 2 FOMC + the new chairman Mr Powell speech on Feb 28 . The big question is if there will be any attempt to break out before the FOMC meeting next week or it will settle down somewhere in the mid....

 

[Stag]

...the outlook remains bearish whilst the Euro trades below the wave ii corrective channel.

This wave 2 pullback should result in a swift and dramatic reversal in wave iii of (iii) if this is the count unfolding...

It's premature to conclude Euro has established a pink wave (iii) bottom, but satisfied minimum downside expectations and it should not all that much beneath current levels. If so, a minor wave (iv) correctiion should start from nearby levels towards 1.231x - 1.233x where a wave (iv) correction should end. A rally attempt breaking decisively above 1.2335 towards 1.2361 will signal a reversal and a new rally is underway.

The outlook remains bearish and any advance should prove corrective as long as prices are below 1.2335, setting the stage for further decline to finish off pink wave (v).

 

[Jaap11]

Wow, what a discussion of politics and just within one night!
Guys, guys, please calm down....This swordplay is unduly.
Speaking on political issue - I do not try to find out who is "right" and who is "wrong". This is too sensible topic for any person who loves his country. This is not my task when I touch politics (although I do not like it).
I'm speaking about Russia not because I'm Russian. I would speak the same, if say, this was a China or India or any other country. But is it only me talking about Russia? Take a look at your newspapers and news. Hence, something really stands beyond this. It is historically formed that Russia every time appears at the helm. So what I could do?
Now we're watchers of really huge political processes. I just ry to find out what stands behind them, how it could impact on markets. For example, recall our investigation of Middle East conflict, its background and shut down of so-called US shale oil revolution. This let us to foresee solid trend on crude oil. That's what I'm trying to do and this is not my fault that right now everyting is twisting and turning around Russia.
And I will continue to do it, until I will see benefits for us. All the more so I will not imose my opinion to anybody. If you think that Russia is responsible as you've said for Georgia, Ukraine etc. - fine, this is your your personal point of view, but what relation to markets Georgia and Ukraine have right now? I do not understand.

But, it's ok, if you do not want policy to be involved in analysis - no problem, this will be even simpler to me to skip this.

It is your forum and you should do what you want. Me personally, I think you should take a leading role and focus on facts instead of propaganda. It is not relevant what others say, you can find many outlets that tell otherwise (especially the one that understand what is happening in the world). It is about quality and not quantity. I'm not American and not offended because of what you say. I simply can't deal with stupidity. What you say is coming close to stupidity (regarding your political statements). Your arguments are not of any value to trading. Simply follow facts and you will see. I never said US to be perfect but is Russia, come on just think of human rights for 5 seconds (and ignore the rest of corruption) instead of talking middle east. I mean we can do this all day long and I can teach you a lot but that's not why I am here. I didn't need to mention my success in trading, that was a point I made because of your claim that because of being a billionair someone actually has a clue. (even when he is born into it). A former friend of mine from university asked me for some advice and pointed me in your direction. He said you were right more often than wrong but that I could provide this forum with some real help. So I create an account to be helpfull and nice although I'm very busy, then I read your post. I should have left the forum because this is not worth my time and pointless I admit. But you know, a lot of people screw up this business with their lack of knowledge and your political nonsense was just offending to everyone who has a clue. I will stay away and wish you and the rest of this forum the best. If you are willing to go over charts by means of a live webinar I am willing to do that, I guess you will be able to reach out. Safe trades and keep an open mind, even when it comes to your political views.

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

It's premature to conclude Euro has established a pink wave (iii) bottom, but satisfied minimum downside expectations and it should not all that much beneath current levels. If so, a minor wave (iv) correctiion should start from nearby levels towards 1.231x - 1.233x where a wave (iv) correction should end. A rally attempt breaking decisively above 1.2335 towards 1.2361 will signal a reversal and a new rally is underway.

The outlook remains bearish and any advance should prove corrective as long as prices are below 1.2335, setting the stage for further decline to finish off pink wave (v).


Great analysis dear

Great analysis my dear

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

So, EUR has failed to keep pure (and perfect) bullish setup. Although on daily/weekly basis nothing is done yet, on intraday charts situation has become worse. As daily trend stands at the eve of turning bearish, we need to watch for deeper support areas, where we will have to make a decision on position taking:

Although we see clear triangle here and market stands at COP target, but now it doesn't look like sufficient context. Next area that is more or less suitable for bullish reversal is 1.2240-2.2265 - Agreement around major 5/8 Fib support. As a result we could get "222" Buy pattern as well.

On hourly chart we have smaller AB-CD XOP target that also stands around - 1.2477:

Another reason why I'm worry about bullish perspective, is dollar index - our 4-hour H&S pattern shape has been broken and right arm is a triangle as well. This picture doesn't look bearish any more:

Although upside action could continue from right here either, there are a lack of clear bullish signs by far...

 

[Stag]

...a minor wave (iv) correctiion should start from nearby levels towards 1.231x - 1.233x where a wave (iv) correction should end...

The outlook remains bearish and any advance should prove corrective as long as prices are below 1.2335, setting the stage for further decline to finish off pink wave (v).

Wave (iv) registered its peak at 1.2336. The fifth wave of the impulse decline I am tracking is still unfolding and price needs to complete a five-wave pattern off the 1.2336 high to suggest wave (v) is in place.

The decline seems to be near to its end. Printing above 1.2336 will signal that a fifth wave low has been registered and the larger five wave sequence from 1.2412 high may be complete. Breaching 1.2336 will signal the early stages of a potential rally are under way.

 

[Stag]

Great analysis my dear

Thank you, Lolly, I'm glad if you or anyone finds it useful.