Venelin
Master Sergeant
- Messages
- 430
Hi Stag, I meant the count highleted on this chart:
FOREX PRO WEEKLY, March 26-30, 2018
- Thread starter Sive Morten
- Start date
Stag
Sergeant
- Messages
- 206
I see now and yes, you are right if it is going to be a contracting ending diagonal with that labeling. There are 3 scenarios I'm tracking now and the top labeled as wave 3 can be wave 1 or a still unfolding wave C just to make it more confusing. What is important here is that in either case of a still unfolding ending diagonal, we should see prices and further consolidation above 1.2240.
No waves to offer but I will pay attention to the 1.226x. This one was missing after the last week FOMC meeting. Still no break no shake in my book. Sell high, buy low in the current structure
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,679
Good morning,
So, EUR has broken our major K-support area around 1.2350 which is not good sign for bulls and overall picture could look better if this wouldn't happen. By market mechanics sharp reversal around COP target, when CD upside leg stands pretty fast and deep retracement after that are not good company for bullish scenario.
Still, on daily overall bullish context stands valid still, while market is above "C" point. Now price is flirting with MACDP line, which could give a bullish grabber:
But we have more important issues on intraday chart. As market has not given chance for long entry around 1.2350 as no pattern was formed around it and price just passed through - now we need to keep an eye on final major support level - 1.2277. Now market stands around 50%. But, taking in consideration the speed of dropping, it seems that another leg down has very good chances to happen. Here I also plot upside AB=CD pattern. It doesn't mean that we have to take long position right now, it just shows that upside target coincides with daily one. Or, it could be slightly lower if we will be right and another leg down will happen.
On houlry chart we have XOP target around 1.2270, mostly in Agreement with major 5/8 Fib support:
So, geting all issues together our trading plan suggest :
1. Reaching of 5/8 Fib support and XOP target completion;
2. Appearing of clear bullish reversal pattern around 1.2270 area, such as H&S, Butterfly etc.
Only completion of these two conditions will give us sufficient context for taking long position.
So, EUR has broken our major K-support area around 1.2350 which is not good sign for bulls and overall picture could look better if this wouldn't happen. By market mechanics sharp reversal around COP target, when CD upside leg stands pretty fast and deep retracement after that are not good company for bullish scenario.
Still, on daily overall bullish context stands valid still, while market is above "C" point. Now price is flirting with MACDP line, which could give a bullish grabber:
But we have more important issues on intraday chart. As market has not given chance for long entry around 1.2350 as no pattern was formed around it and price just passed through - now we need to keep an eye on final major support level - 1.2277. Now market stands around 50%. But, taking in consideration the speed of dropping, it seems that another leg down has very good chances to happen. Here I also plot upside AB=CD pattern. It doesn't mean that we have to take long position right now, it just shows that upside target coincides with daily one. Or, it could be slightly lower if we will be right and another leg down will happen.
On houlry chart we have XOP target around 1.2270, mostly in Agreement with major 5/8 Fib support:
So, geting all issues together our trading plan suggest :
1. Reaching of 5/8 Fib support and XOP target completion;
2. Appearing of clear bullish reversal pattern around 1.2270 area, such as H&S, Butterfly etc.
Only completion of these two conditions will give us sufficient context for taking long position.
And this week will also include both a monthly and Quarterly close. All is set for these closes
You can observe correlated moves on various markets right now. It seems that risk-on phase will kick in. This will make the fallowing moves which are being observed in their initial phase:
EURAUD macd 4h bearish divergence
EURUSD may continue dropping to 1.2050
XAUUSD goes below 1300
AUDUSD goes up
DAX up
Now the most difficult part for us would be joining the trends. Would be helpful if Sive and other experienced traders could help finding good entry points with the trend, not against it.
Bearing in mind that markets can do opposite if they wish.
EURAUD macd 4h bearish divergence
EURUSD may continue dropping to 1.2050
XAUUSD goes below 1300
AUDUSD goes up
DAX up
Now the most difficult part for us would be joining the trends. Would be helpful if Sive and other experienced traders could help finding good entry points with the trend, not against it.
Bearing in mind that markets can do opposite if they wish.
Last edited:
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,679
Good morning,
So, it seems that our suggestion was correct, that EUR should show another minor tick down before possible reversal. In fact the same story is on other currencies. Thus, AUD is coming to weekly OP that has not been reached yet, NZD has the same intraday XOP target as EUR.
On daily chart we haven't got bullish grabber recently and now, as we've said, market stands at final bullish outpost. Drop below "C" point will break bullish context here. Recall our triangle story here from weekly research. Drop below "C" will mean failure breakout and this will promise opposite direction:
On 4-hour chart market is still coiling around 1/2-5/8 major Fib levels:
I'm not sure that today we will get completed setup for position taking, especially before long holidays, but there is something that we could monitor today. This is hourly picture. Now a kind of 3-Drive "Buy" is forming right around our XOP target. Yes, harmonic pattern is not a good looking, it's a bit choppy, but, at the same time it keeps 3-Drive typical extensions rather well and it is accompanied by MACD divergence, so it could work...
Thus, in result we could get bullish reversal pattern around major Fib support an Agreement. It should give relatively safe chance for entry. At least upside technical respect has good chances to happen which let us to move stops to breakeven, as usual.
If upward action will not be re-established up from here, chances on bullish context survival will diminish significantly.
So, it seems that our suggestion was correct, that EUR should show another minor tick down before possible reversal. In fact the same story is on other currencies. Thus, AUD is coming to weekly OP that has not been reached yet, NZD has the same intraday XOP target as EUR.
On daily chart we haven't got bullish grabber recently and now, as we've said, market stands at final bullish outpost. Drop below "C" point will break bullish context here. Recall our triangle story here from weekly research. Drop below "C" will mean failure breakout and this will promise opposite direction:
On 4-hour chart market is still coiling around 1/2-5/8 major Fib levels:
I'm not sure that today we will get completed setup for position taking, especially before long holidays, but there is something that we could monitor today. This is hourly picture. Now a kind of 3-Drive "Buy" is forming right around our XOP target. Yes, harmonic pattern is not a good looking, it's a bit choppy, but, at the same time it keeps 3-Drive typical extensions rather well and it is accompanied by MACD divergence, so it could work...
Thus, in result we could get bullish reversal pattern around major Fib support an Agreement. It should give relatively safe chance for entry. At least upside technical respect has good chances to happen which let us to move stops to breakeven, as usual.
If upward action will not be re-established up from here, chances on bullish context survival will diminish significantly.
Similar threads
