Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,748
Monthly
Today guys, I’ve decided to break the monotony of EUR hegemony and take a look at NZD. The reason is I do not want to repeat the same analysis on EUR, that we’ve discussed on previous week. All that we’ve said is still valid and even more – we have another bullish stop grabber on weekly chart. Thus, analysis of monthly and weekly chart will be the same. Short-term analysis we will discuss within next week. Besides, I believe that you have enough skills to create your own entry plan with upward continuation.
Now, why I’ve chosen Kiwi. I’ve checked all majors and some pairs have really intriguing setups either currently or potentially. I even could say – all majors have it, mostly AUD, GBP and NZD. But kiwi also has a lot of hidden moments that not everybody sees. But these moments as you will see, rather poweful and could significantly increase probability of success. I’m not sure that I will track NZD in daily video updates, but sometimes it makes sense to take a look at it. Especially when you see what we have now. So, let’s start with it.
Actually the core we have on monthly chart. Such sort of setups are not as obvious as just simple patterns or indicators and demand complex look at sutiation. When you will combine different patterns and they unite in completed thrilling picture, that’s really amazing.
First of all, we have big AB=CD pattern with target around 0.92. Market now stands above 0.618 and coiling slightly below 1.0 major objective point. When you see such situaiton this tells that it’s a great probability of upward move, since market just can’t remain in semi-position and gravitates to completion point of the pattern. Now, if you’re careful enough you’ll another two prompts. First is bullish dynamic pressure. MACD shows bear trend, while market is forming the sequense of higher lows. Thus, I’ve drawn not a divergence, but just show you difference between trend and price action. Bullish dynamic pressure suggests taking out of previous highs at minimum. Second is obvious and nicely looking potential butterfly “Sell” pattern. The 1.618 extension stands slightly above AB=CD target and here is conclusion could be made that AB=CD target will be hit exactly by butterfly.
And finally Monthly Pivot. Market has tested it and moves above it, and in general – take a look that price more or less holds above broken highs. So current retracement looks like re-testing of broken highs.
Just to totally complete monthly picture the 1.27 extension of BC leg stands right in the same area – around 0.92. I haven’t drawn it here, just to keep chart clear, but you can check it, if you want.
As you can see, details, that at first glance look unimportnant and blur, in fact create the core of monthly setup. Thus, I hope that the majority of traders do not see it. In this case there should be not bad chances on success. Let’s see what we have on lower time frames.
Weekly
On weekly chart we do not see much. Trend is bullish and market has formed excellent stop grabber, but unfortunately it has hit minimum target already. Now market stands at resistance – 50% Fib resistance and natural support/resistance line, probably you see it. Another moment that I like here is that price has erased long bearish candles rather fast.
Also we will take an oportunity and look at EUR weekly chart as well, as we have a little to discuss on weekly NZD.
On EUR here is the second grabber that I’ve talked about. Trend holds bullish and market forms grabbers with the direction of trend and price action – that’s the ones that I like mostly. Price still stands around MPP.
Daily
Daily picture is also rather informative. I do not trade NZD very often, and do not know exactly how reliable Double (Triple) bottom (DB) pattern here, but I can’t call pattern that I see here some other way. At least it looks like DB or TB. The area where it has been formed (but not triggered yet, since market has not passed through neckline) is also important. Take a look – this is 76.8% weekly support. This level is very common for starting points of butterflies’ right wing. As a rule right wing starts at 0.618-76.8% support levels.
But, guys, if this is even not a DB we have another important thing here. This is most recent upward thrust. We do not need 3x3 DMA to say that it is perfect and absolutely suitable for any DiNapoli directional pattern. And why this pattern could appear here? Because market at weekly resistance that is also looks like neckline here. Hence this is our chance to step in and if we will be lucky even move stop to breakeven after that.
4-hour
Well, this chart shows how all this stuff could be played out. Excellent thrust up, and potential for DRPO “Sell” that has not been confirmed on Friday for 1 pip. Appearing or small W&R adds some more bearishness to setup and in fact shows the DRPO that I like – with second higher top. Take a note that DRPO is appearing not just “somewhere”, but at daily/weekly resistance. This is important. I suppose that potential level to watch for, at least it seems attractive to me, is 0.7975-0.7995 K-support, that is also will be WPS1. And we know that WPS1 should hold downward retracement if trend is still bullish. Besides, previous swings down were rather deep, that’s why we choose this level. But you probably could find another K-support around 0.8050 level as well.
As usual, guys, I talk this in every research but I’m not tired to repeat. Use common sense. If we will get falling like a stone market – do not take long position. DRPO could lead to fast fall, but still it should not look like previous swing down. Second, scalpers could watch for DRPO for scalp short trade as well.
Conclusion:
I hope that you will find interesting and useful NZD analysis. It is also very educative as well. We’ve got lucky and have a lot of patterns, issues here that we do not deal very often. Hope our analysis will work, because it is not as obvious has many others, especially on monthly chart. The clear picture is hidden under some blur patterns that is not easy to interpret…
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
Today guys, I’ve decided to break the monotony of EUR hegemony and take a look at NZD. The reason is I do not want to repeat the same analysis on EUR, that we’ve discussed on previous week. All that we’ve said is still valid and even more – we have another bullish stop grabber on weekly chart. Thus, analysis of monthly and weekly chart will be the same. Short-term analysis we will discuss within next week. Besides, I believe that you have enough skills to create your own entry plan with upward continuation.
Now, why I’ve chosen Kiwi. I’ve checked all majors and some pairs have really intriguing setups either currently or potentially. I even could say – all majors have it, mostly AUD, GBP and NZD. But kiwi also has a lot of hidden moments that not everybody sees. But these moments as you will see, rather poweful and could significantly increase probability of success. I’m not sure that I will track NZD in daily video updates, but sometimes it makes sense to take a look at it. Especially when you see what we have now. So, let’s start with it.
Actually the core we have on monthly chart. Such sort of setups are not as obvious as just simple patterns or indicators and demand complex look at sutiation. When you will combine different patterns and they unite in completed thrilling picture, that’s really amazing.
First of all, we have big AB=CD pattern with target around 0.92. Market now stands above 0.618 and coiling slightly below 1.0 major objective point. When you see such situaiton this tells that it’s a great probability of upward move, since market just can’t remain in semi-position and gravitates to completion point of the pattern. Now, if you’re careful enough you’ll another two prompts. First is bullish dynamic pressure. MACD shows bear trend, while market is forming the sequense of higher lows. Thus, I’ve drawn not a divergence, but just show you difference between trend and price action. Bullish dynamic pressure suggests taking out of previous highs at minimum. Second is obvious and nicely looking potential butterfly “Sell” pattern. The 1.618 extension stands slightly above AB=CD target and here is conclusion could be made that AB=CD target will be hit exactly by butterfly.
And finally Monthly Pivot. Market has tested it and moves above it, and in general – take a look that price more or less holds above broken highs. So current retracement looks like re-testing of broken highs.
Just to totally complete monthly picture the 1.27 extension of BC leg stands right in the same area – around 0.92. I haven’t drawn it here, just to keep chart clear, but you can check it, if you want.
As you can see, details, that at first glance look unimportnant and blur, in fact create the core of monthly setup. Thus, I hope that the majority of traders do not see it. In this case there should be not bad chances on success. Let’s see what we have on lower time frames.
Weekly
On weekly chart we do not see much. Trend is bullish and market has formed excellent stop grabber, but unfortunately it has hit minimum target already. Now market stands at resistance – 50% Fib resistance and natural support/resistance line, probably you see it. Another moment that I like here is that price has erased long bearish candles rather fast.
Also we will take an oportunity and look at EUR weekly chart as well, as we have a little to discuss on weekly NZD.
On EUR here is the second grabber that I’ve talked about. Trend holds bullish and market forms grabbers with the direction of trend and price action – that’s the ones that I like mostly. Price still stands around MPP.
Daily
Daily picture is also rather informative. I do not trade NZD very often, and do not know exactly how reliable Double (Triple) bottom (DB) pattern here, but I can’t call pattern that I see here some other way. At least it looks like DB or TB. The area where it has been formed (but not triggered yet, since market has not passed through neckline) is also important. Take a look – this is 76.8% weekly support. This level is very common for starting points of butterflies’ right wing. As a rule right wing starts at 0.618-76.8% support levels.
But, guys, if this is even not a DB we have another important thing here. This is most recent upward thrust. We do not need 3x3 DMA to say that it is perfect and absolutely suitable for any DiNapoli directional pattern. And why this pattern could appear here? Because market at weekly resistance that is also looks like neckline here. Hence this is our chance to step in and if we will be lucky even move stop to breakeven after that.
4-hour
Well, this chart shows how all this stuff could be played out. Excellent thrust up, and potential for DRPO “Sell” that has not been confirmed on Friday for 1 pip. Appearing or small W&R adds some more bearishness to setup and in fact shows the DRPO that I like – with second higher top. Take a note that DRPO is appearing not just “somewhere”, but at daily/weekly resistance. This is important. I suppose that potential level to watch for, at least it seems attractive to me, is 0.7975-0.7995 K-support, that is also will be WPS1. And we know that WPS1 should hold downward retracement if trend is still bullish. Besides, previous swings down were rather deep, that’s why we choose this level. But you probably could find another K-support around 0.8050 level as well.
As usual, guys, I talk this in every research but I’m not tired to repeat. Use common sense. If we will get falling like a stone market – do not take long position. DRPO could lead to fast fall, but still it should not look like previous swing down. Second, scalpers could watch for DRPO for scalp short trade as well.
Conclusion:
I hope that you will find interesting and useful NZD analysis. It is also very educative as well. We’ve got lucky and have a lot of patterns, issues here that we do not deal very often. Hope our analysis will work, because it is not as obvious has many others, especially on monthly chart. The clear picture is hidden under some blur patterns that is not easy to interpret…
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
