Stavro D'Amore
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 547
US NFP Employment Change
Forecast 89K
Previous 18K
Pair to trade: EUR/USD
Triggers we need: BUY -60 SELL +60
Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Forecast is good for the currency
Occurrence: Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends
About our Triggers:
If the US NFP Employment Change number comes out at +149 or more, the EUR/USD should go down by about 40 pips. We are using a deviation of +60 for the short.
If it comes out at 29 or less EUR/USD should go up by about 40 pips. We are using -60 to trigger for long.
I would usually consider trading USD/JPY for this release but due to the BOJ intervening and increasing their fund size to 15 trillion, I would keep away from trading news on this pair until I have more information on the BOJ decision.
Why do we care?
This is one of the most vital economic data, released shortly after the month ends for the US economy. This combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts and massive volatility
Method to trade this: Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
Please keep in mind the possibility of the unemployment rate which is due to come out at the same time, at the expected rate of 9.2%. This number should not conflict with the Employment Changes and we will follow the direction of the news release number before entering any of these strategies.
Prior to the news release (2-3 mins) I will be looking for a short term LONG position in EUR/USD and I will get out of this trade 30 seconds before the actual release or any spreads that should widen.
I would recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you’re using an ECN broker.
If your are not spike trading or if you did do a spike trade and your already out, I will look for a 50% retrace in the original spike before entering a trade. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a level, looking at a 15 min chart.
Historical Chart and Data for US NFP Employment Change
What is US NFP Employment Change?
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labour conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labour conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
Forecast 89K
Previous 18K
Pair to trade: EUR/USD
Triggers we need: BUY -60 SELL +60
Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Forecast is good for the currency
Occurrence: Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends
About our Triggers:
If the US NFP Employment Change number comes out at +149 or more, the EUR/USD should go down by about 40 pips. We are using a deviation of +60 for the short.
If it comes out at 29 or less EUR/USD should go up by about 40 pips. We are using -60 to trigger for long.
I would usually consider trading USD/JPY for this release but due to the BOJ intervening and increasing their fund size to 15 trillion, I would keep away from trading news on this pair until I have more information on the BOJ decision.
Why do we care?
This is one of the most vital economic data, released shortly after the month ends for the US economy. This combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts and massive volatility
Method to trade this: Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
Please keep in mind the possibility of the unemployment rate which is due to come out at the same time, at the expected rate of 9.2%. This number should not conflict with the Employment Changes and we will follow the direction of the news release number before entering any of these strategies.
Prior to the news release (2-3 mins) I will be looking for a short term LONG position in EUR/USD and I will get out of this trade 30 seconds before the actual release or any spreads that should widen.
I would recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you’re using an ECN broker.
If your are not spike trading or if you did do a spike trade and your already out, I will look for a 50% retrace in the original spike before entering a trade. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a level, looking at a 15 min chart.
Historical Chart and Data for US NFP Employment Change
What is US NFP Employment Change?
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labour conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labour conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
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