Stavro D'Amore
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 547
Hello all,
Today we have AU Interest rate due to come, this will be an interesting release due to the current circumstances, looks like an interest rate drop is on the cards. Please find my trade plan bellow.
AU Interest rate
Forecast 4.25%
Previous 4.50%
Pair to trade: AUD/USD
Numbers we need:
BUY AUD/USD If Unchanged
SELL AUD/USD 4.25% or lower (BE CAREFUL OF RETRACE)
Economical Impact: Critical
Typical Result: Hawkish, Good for Currency
Occurrence: First Tuesday of the month in Australia,
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 50 pips on initial spike
About our Triggers:
If RBA Hold rates, we should SPIKE in AUD of 40 pips and I will buy AUDUSD or other AUD crosses.
At the present moment, the expectation for a rate drop is on the cards with a decrease we could see some AUD sell off prior to the news.
If RBA decrease the rate we could see a 50 pip spike to the down side with AUD loosing over 200 pips by weekend coming (again be careful of retrace)
Current pressure from the government’s new carbon tax, poor performing markets and pull back in the housing market of 20%. We could also see rates decrease.
RBA will make further statements after the release in the condition of the economy and there forecast this will make the AUD very volatile.
If the RBA decides to keep rates unchanged, we may see a sell-off, as the accompanied RBA statement may be dovish in light of recent news events.
What is it? And why does the market care?
The Reserve Bank of Australia's monthly interest rate statement describes its latest decision regarding changes to the country's short term interest rates, monetary policy, and the direction of the economy.
Short term interest rates are the key factor in currency valuation. A dovish statement could push AUD down against its rivals, while hawkish statement could boost the currency.
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
Trade Indicator
Felix descriptions
I will Look to sell AUD/USD around 1.5 hour prior to news and be closed out of this trade before its release, I will base my trade on volume Price action and selling MACD and TRIX indicators on a 15 min chart.
I will trade SPIKE on this release.
I will look for a 50% retracement in the original spike if our triggers are hit before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.
My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.
Historical Chart and AU RBA Interest Rate
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
Today we have AU Interest rate due to come, this will be an interesting release due to the current circumstances, looks like an interest rate drop is on the cards. Please find my trade plan bellow.
AU Interest rate
Forecast 4.25%
Previous 4.50%
Pair to trade: AUD/USD
Numbers we need:
BUY AUD/USD If Unchanged
SELL AUD/USD 4.25% or lower (BE CAREFUL OF RETRACE)
Economical Impact: Critical
Typical Result: Hawkish, Good for Currency
Occurrence: First Tuesday of the month in Australia,
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 50 pips on initial spike
About our Triggers:
If RBA Hold rates, we should SPIKE in AUD of 40 pips and I will buy AUDUSD or other AUD crosses.
At the present moment, the expectation for a rate drop is on the cards with a decrease we could see some AUD sell off prior to the news.
If RBA decrease the rate we could see a 50 pip spike to the down side with AUD loosing over 200 pips by weekend coming (again be careful of retrace)
Current pressure from the government’s new carbon tax, poor performing markets and pull back in the housing market of 20%. We could also see rates decrease.
RBA will make further statements after the release in the condition of the economy and there forecast this will make the AUD very volatile.
If the RBA decides to keep rates unchanged, we may see a sell-off, as the accompanied RBA statement may be dovish in light of recent news events.
What is it? And why does the market care?
The Reserve Bank of Australia's monthly interest rate statement describes its latest decision regarding changes to the country's short term interest rates, monetary policy, and the direction of the economy.
Short term interest rates are the key factor in currency valuation. A dovish statement could push AUD down against its rivals, while hawkish statement could boost the currency.
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
Trade Indicator
Felix descriptions
I will Look to sell AUD/USD around 1.5 hour prior to news and be closed out of this trade before its release, I will base my trade on volume Price action and selling MACD and TRIX indicators on a 15 min chart.
I will trade SPIKE on this release.
I will look for a 50% retracement in the original spike if our triggers are hit before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.
My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.
Historical Chart and AU RBA Interest Rate
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
Last edited by a moderator:
Thank you both again for writing this thread -regards Joh.
