Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
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ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing it's own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm Payroll). This is a high impact release and it's followed by currency traders as they look for hints on Friday's NFP official release. Here's the forecast:
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 67K Previous 38K
ACTION: 117K BUY USDJPY / 17K BUY AUDUSD
The Trade Plan
I usually don't trade this release but I use it for future trend references. However, if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, the market probably wont have a problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for the NFP release; therefore its best to be around your computer during the release time rather than find out what happened hours later and potentially miss the entire movement.
With the above being said, we'll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 117K or better release, I'd be looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a 17K or worse, then I'd be looking to BUY AUDUSD... I will also recommend to look at my strength meter and find the best currency against the USD pending the actual data.
In the event that we do get our deviation, we'll be trading this news based on after-news Retracement Trading Method. For more information, read:
Henry Liu's Trading Method
The Market
A slightly positive release of 67K is expected for today's ADP report, according to multiple news outlets. With Friday's NFP expected at around 87K, today's ADP report at best could come inline with market expectation.
However, yesterday's Challenger's Job Cut figures showed the number of planned job cuts rose 11.6% in June to 41,432 from May's 37,135, we could be in for a negative surprise...
Additional Thoughts
The ADP NFP Employment Release is always considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it's proprietary private payroll data.
Pre-news Consideration
There should not be much pre-news trading opportunities for this release. But this release could start a pre-news trend for Friday's NFP.
Historical Chart and Data for US ADP NFP
Thanks,
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 67K Previous 38K
ACTION: 117K BUY USDJPY / 17K BUY AUDUSD
The Trade Plan
I usually don't trade this release but I use it for future trend references. However, if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, the market probably wont have a problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for the NFP release; therefore its best to be around your computer during the release time rather than find out what happened hours later and potentially miss the entire movement.
With the above being said, we'll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 117K or better release, I'd be looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a 17K or worse, then I'd be looking to BUY AUDUSD... I will also recommend to look at my strength meter and find the best currency against the USD pending the actual data.
In the event that we do get our deviation, we'll be trading this news based on after-news Retracement Trading Method. For more information, read:
Henry Liu's Trading Method
The Market
A slightly positive release of 67K is expected for today's ADP report, according to multiple news outlets. With Friday's NFP expected at around 87K, today's ADP report at best could come inline with market expectation.
However, yesterday's Challenger's Job Cut figures showed the number of planned job cuts rose 11.6% in June to 41,432 from May's 37,135, we could be in for a negative surprise...
Additional Thoughts
The ADP NFP Employment Release is always considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it's proprietary private payroll data.
Pre-news Consideration
There should not be much pre-news trading opportunities for this release. But this release could start a pre-news trend for Friday's NFP.
Historical Chart and Data for US ADP NFP
Thanks,
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