Help me understand

[cyberpinoy]

Hello, Let me say first I am no pro, I have been practicing Forex on demo account for over a year. I get trading analysis from an analyst here in FPA whose pairs are usually, actually 95% of the time, on point and usually to the second.

One of my first questions is this, if as I see a lot, most people are using these FIB and other things to sway their trading decisions, and utilize the same analysis to make their trading judgments, would this kind of action not impact the market? I mean buying or selling in a big way moves the market right? So if 80 percent of the people out there are using the same tools and techniques to make their trade decisions, to me, I would think it would have an overall impact on the market. If this is true how does a person work with this to help his trades be more profitable?

I do not use any of that stuff, I do not use software, or FIB or anything actually. I rarely use stop and profit lines either, I have a reason hehe, but I do spend a whole lot of time inf front of my computer. I dont use my stop loss and take profit marks, Unless I have to go to the restroom, because I read somewhere, not sure if true, But I read that the market movers out there are tapped into systems that give them information on where we place stop loss and take profits, and will purposely keep us from making money, buy purchasing huge volumes to push and pull the market the way they want it to move. Is this true I do not know, but I like to play a low risk market strategy, and I like to be safe than sorry. so no matter what if it is or is not true If I dont put them in I may not be tracked. I make my own judgments by watching the market, looking in the past day or so and reading a whole lot of information. I keep an economic calendar up, as well as DailyFX alerts and use that plus investigate every pair that has reports coming out for the day.

I finally decided to go live this past month, I have been practicing for over a year. with the same results. and I will post my first weeks ( actually only 4 days trading) results and se what you guys feel for a person who uses nothing but information to make hs decisions. I do want to mention the -$17.80 trade at the bottom was a loss I took because I didnt want to leave the trade open over the weekend. I usually do my research the day before I trade. I do not research a week at a time but more so a day at a time. I look at the economic calendar the day before and study the pairs in that days that have movements.

Let me know your thoughts.

 

[Pharaoh]

Some people use indicators, some don't. An addition issue is that a Fib level on a 4 hour chart could be in a different place on a daily or hourly chart. Since the "day" starts at different times on the servers of different brokers, 4 hour and Daily candles themselves will look different between some brokers that use the same price feed. All of this doesn't mean Fibs are useless, but does mean that they aren't nearly as all-powerful as people pushing Fib courses want you to believe.

Your trading looks impressive, but the lack of any SL is dangerous.

Do you have a backup internet connection and the ability to switch over to it in less than 15 seconds? (I do. ) If not, then you at least need to set an emergency stop loss somewhere a little beyond your mental stop. When Murphy's law strikes, that SL can save your account from big losses.

 

[cyberpinoy]

Some people use indicators, some don't. An addition issue is that a Fib level on a 4 hour chart could be in a different place on a daily or hourly chart. Since the "day" starts at different times on the servers of different brokers, 4 hour and Daily candles themselves will look different between some brokers that use the same price feed. All of this doesn't mean Fibs are useless, but does mean that they aren't nearly as all-powerful as people pushing Fib courses want you to believe.

Your trading looks impressive, but the lack of any SL is dangerous.

Do you have a backup internet connection and the ability to switch over to it in less than 15 seconds? (I do. ) If not, then you at least need to set an emergency stop loss somewhere a little beyond your mental stop. When Murphy's law strikes, that SL can save your account from big losses.

You are right in so many ways, I am trying to discipline myself for these drastic stops because we have both internet as well as power issues here in the Philippines. and let me tell you if I lost an account over either one of those being at fault, They would be deporting me within minutes of me finding out. So I have to agree with you I really need to discipline myself for emergency stop losses. my problem with them is all these conspiracy theories going around about brokers pin pointing stop losses. You never know if what you read is true, and to have a client lose an account seems quite counterproductive on a brokers part to be serious. But I often wonder why I see so many stories about how they feel the broker purposely hit their stop loss for a lost trade. that is also on my mind.

 

[Pharaoh]

It sort of depends on the time frames you are trading. If you are scalping on 1 minute charts and your mental stop is at 4 pips and you set an "emergency stop" at 8 pips, the broker could indeed nail you with a price spike and you would have a very hard time proving it.

On the other hand, if you are trading with a 60 pip mental stop and set your emergency stop to 100 pips, spotting mysterious spikes taking out trade after trade is going to be an obvious sign that you need to change brokers right away.

Even well regulated brokers have been caught playing tricks, but most of them won't do anything that would be so obvious to a regulator.

Also, get a good sized UPS to save you from power losses (computer as well as any hubs. routers, etc.) and see if you can get a second internet connection that comes in independently of your current one. i.e. 2 different DSL service providers on the same phone line doesn't help if your phone line gets cut anywhere between your house and where the data path to each provider branches. Optimally, you want DSL coming in from one direction and either fiber-optic or cable-modem accessing coming from another direction. If rates aren't too expensive, 3G or 4G access may be an option as a backup. Also, load up all your trading platforms on a laptop so you can quickly move to a different location in the event of an extended internet or power outage.

 

[cyberpinoy]

It sort of depends on the time frames you are trading. If you are scalping on 1 minute charts and your mental stop is at 4 pips and you set an "emergency stop" at 8 pips, the broker could indeed nail you with a price spike and you would have a very hard time proving it.

On the other hand, if you are trading with a 60 pip mental stop and set your emergency stop to 100 pips, spotting mysterious spikes taking out trade after trade is going to be an obvious sign that you need to change brokers right away.

Even well regulated brokers have been caught playing tricks, but most of them won't do anything that would be so obvious to a regulator.

Also, get a good sized UPS to save you from power losses (computer as well as any hubs. routers, etc.) and see if you can get a second internet connection that comes in independently of your current one. i.e. 2 different DSL service providers on the same phone line doesn't help if your phone line gets cut anywhere between your house and where the data path to each provider branches. Optimally, you want DSL coming in from one direction and either fiber-optic or cable-modem accessing coming from another direction. If rates aren't too expensive, 3G or 4G access may be an option as a backup. Also, load up all your trading platforms on a laptop so you can quickly move to a different location in the event of an extended internet or power outage.

Wow you have really good advice. And first I want to say thank you so much, you are helping me,

There is no cable internet available in the Philippines. The main reason I got into trading was because I wanted a way to work here to make money to get back to USA. While researching and practicing on demo accounts this past year I fell in love with this as more than just a way out for now, but more so as a possible career move for me. I am now thinking of doing this when we can finally move back to the United States. if this is all possible I can limit the amount of money needed to make our move, PROVIDED I wont have any issues withdrawing my profits from my broker.

I did research Forex.xom, I did investigate them and ask many questions about them, unfortunately I could not find much bad reports on them. Well let me say reports that effected the company itself. The reports I did find is why I do not use stop losses at the moment, 3 reports felt the broker was targeting their stop loses, So I figured If I dont use them they can not target them. and a lot of the other reports have been fixed since they came out ( reports 3+years old) or was just plain and simple bad judgement on the person writing the report. I found some people to have no discipline, they seem maybe to not understand risk management and were risking way more than they should have on trades. reports like this I have to ignore. But real authentic up to date bad reports on this broker I can not seem to find. I keep all my email chat sessions on backup and I copy my weeks trades and save the screen shots for proof If I ever need it. I never log into my account except from my computer at home, I do not use assistant programs or the expert advisers I make all my trades myself personally. HOPEFULLY this will limit the problems I may have withdrawing money when the time comes.

I will be looking into the power saver, it is a box that allows you to have 15 minutes of power for a computer in case of a brownout. I will also look into the USB broadband for a back up connection, as well as looking into purchasing a new laptop for future instances. The laptop I have now is 7 years old and does not work well. I use a brand new desktop computer for my trading.

Thank you so much.

 

[Pharaoh]

NFA regulated brokers that play games using the Virtual Dealer Plugin to manipulate trades in Metatrader have been getting slapped hard by the NFA for some time now. I can't say that all NFA regulated brokers have stopped cheating this way, but I do feel confident that they can't be doing it nearly so often or in any fashion that would be obvious to the NFA.

Here's a test for you - as long as your mental stops are at least 20 pips away from the opening price, try adding hard stops 10 pips farther out for a few days and see if you get spiked out. Of course, don't do this around major news released - the spread will go wild and make hitting stops too easy at those times.

 

[Krachuk]

Hi Pharaoh,
Is it necessary to have a Broker and if so how does one select a Forex Broker ?
Thanks

 

[Pharaoh]

At the most basic level, you really can trade forex without a broker. I've managed to get some great deals swapping currency with people who had leftover foreign currency from a vacation - I paid less than it was worth, but more than they'd have gotten at their bank and MUCH more than at one of those currency exchangers at the airport.

Still, if you want to trade forex regularly instead of hunting down friends and relatives after they return home, you will need a broker. Quite some time back, I wrote an article about finding a broker to meet the needs of an individual trader. You can read it here:

https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-basics-boot-camp/2333-how-select-forex-broker.html

 

[LoRio]

Hey there and welcome.
What you are reffering to is a self-fullfiling prophecy effect based on what everyone knows about the market at that time in conjuction with the analysis they follow.
In the old days , you'd sit out an NFP report and reap the benefits , of 200 pip moves etc.
Where you 'd enter ? no one cared , after the initial false move you'd hope on the pip train.

Nowadays however markets range keeps dropping drammatically.
So , What you see on the chart , EVERYONE sees.
If you open the chart and your brain screams "Uptrend" without second thought, then every
trader out there involved in trading this pair has the same experience as you(their brain screams uptrend).
If you switch to a higher TimeFrame to decide where your entry will be , and you see a clear distinct level which price tried to but failed to break ,then everyone sees support at that level as well.
The only problem with the "horizontal lines only" approach is that everybode is trying to enter at a best price and before everyone else.In other words , everyone is afraid that everyone else will enter before the support level is reached so they are prone to entering earlier.You can avoid this by reducing your risk , having risk reward ratio on your side and setting your stop optimally.

Now,i have noticed , -with my also non-pro eyes- when there is no screamer at the chart , nothing clearly distinct , people will resort to trading something else OR using fibonnacci .
Im sure you have witnessed price action and wondered , why on earth did it bounce here ? etc.

I would advice you further but from your screenshots i see you have an approach that you (me buffet anyone) should not mess with.If its working , keep doing it.