Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for Sep 28-Oct 4

By Elizabeth Belugina

Hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve support US dollar kept USD/JPY above 119.00. At the same time, the market’s poor risk sentiment and moderate comments from the Bank of Japan didn’t let the pair to settle above 121.00. So far, the BOJ Governor Kuroda gave no hints that the central bank will ease policy soon.

The odds are that this sideways trend will continue this week. Market participants await new information and don’t want to initiate big new moves. Traders will await Chinese PMI figures on Thursday and the release of US non-farm payrolls on Friday.

The main events of Japanese economic calendar are the release of retail sales data on Tuesday and manufacturing and services PMIs on Wednesday.

The bulls need a clear break above 121.35 to move to 122.50. Support is at 118.50 ahead of strong support in the 116.60/00 area.

USD/JPY Daily

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6559

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for Sept 28-Oct 4

By Kira Iukhtenko

Hawkish comments of the Fed’s chief Janet Yellen pushed the US Dollar higher on the past week. USD index strengthened above 96 points on the increased expectations of the Fed’s hike in 2015. Fix above 100 points will open the way for a new rally.

On the new week, labor market data on Friday will be in focus. US economy is expected to have added 202K new jobs in September. In August, NFP came at just 173K. Strong figures will increase expectations for a hike in October. Meanwhile, downbeat readings will pull the USD down, creating new opportunities for buying on dips.

What’s more, we’ll hear a number of FOMC members speaking this week. You should also watch the manufacturing PMI on Thursday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6561

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for Sep 28-Oct 4

By Kira Iukhtenko

GBP/USD remains under selling pressure and formed a “bearish engulfing” candle. However, be the end of the week the pair found support at 1.5160. We don’t recommend selling the pair before it fixes below this mark.

Next support is seen at 1.5050 (trend line). The pair is expected to reverse from this level. Pay attention to the “inverted hammer” candle on the monthly chart. It signals the forthcoming end of the bearish trend.

As for the economic calendar, pay attention to the BOE Carney’s speech on Tuesday, final Q2 GDP on Wednesday and PMI indices later in the week.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6562

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for September 30

By Elizabeth Belugina



The market’s risk sentiment remain unstable and will more likely swing to the negative than to the positive side. Traders continue trying to guess when and how fast the Federal Reserve will be raising interest rate. The speeches of the Fed’s officials at the beginning of the week were mixed and didn’t clarify the picture. Traders will watch American ADP employment report at 12:15 GMT on Wednesday. If the figures disappoint, US dollar will suffer versus the safe-haven yen, franc and even euro. A good reading will raise hopes of good American labor market release on Friday (Nonfarm payrolls or NFP) and support the greenback.

EUR/USD came under bearish pressure as data showed that German and Spanish consumer prices fell more than forecast in September. Low inflation increases the chance that that the European Central Bank will have to do more quantitative easing. On Wednesday, watch inflation data (CPI) for the whole euro area at 09:00 GMT: lower reading here will further strengthen ECB easing expectations and make the euro decline. Support is at 1.1170 and 1.1100 ahead of 1.1015. Resistance is at 1.1280, 1.1300, 1.1325 and 1.1360.

GBP/USD is trying to stay above September low at 1.5134, but the selling interest seems high on the way up to 1.5250. Support is at 1.5088 and 1.5000. The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney will speak on Tuesday at 19:40 GMT: we’ll see how this speech will affect the expectations of the BOE rate hike at the beginning of the next year. On Wednesday, at 08:30 GMT, the UK will release current account and final Q2 GDP figures.

USD/JPY tested 119.25 on Tuesday briefly breaking below the lower triangle line and then returned to the middle of its 5-week range around 120.00. We still expect range trading in the coming sessions, so beware of false breaks. On the downside, further support is at 119.00 and 118.50. On the upside, resistance is found at 120.60 and 121.00.

AUD/USD spiked down to 0.6936, but then recoiled up from this level for a second time (double bottom?) and returned close to 0.7000. Although the general downtrend is still in place, Aussie is oversold and may recover to 0.7040/50. Further resistance is at 0.707o and 0.7100. The next support is at 0.6900. Still, AUD is qualified as a riskier asset, so demand for it will be limited. Australia will release statistics on building approvals at 01:30 GMT on Wednesday. The forecast is negative.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6579

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for Sept 30

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1269, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1333

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.80, TAKE PROFIT 123.13 (revised), STOP LOSS 118.95

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.4973, STOP LOSS 1.5265

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9690, TAKE PROFIT 1.0129 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9665

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6981, TAKE PROFIT 0.6771, STOP LOSS 0.7053

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3250, TAKE PROFIT 1.3501, STOP LOSS 1.3280

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 134.85, TAKE PROFIT 131.30, STOP LOSS 135.45

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1104, STOP LOSS 1.0823

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.5000, TAKE PROFIT 1.5442, STOP LOSS 1.4870

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 179.32, STOP LOSS 183.43

Trade ideas:

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7300

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6420, TAKE PROFIT 0.6130, STOP LOSS 0.6485

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*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6586

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: sell targets - 1.5100 and 1.5000

30 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/USD broke pivotal support level 1.5200
• Next sell targets - 1.5100 and 1.5000

GBP/USD continues to decline after the recent breakout of the pivotal support level 1.5200 (which reversed earlier waves (B) and 1 in June and September, as you can see below). The breakout of this support level coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous primary ABC correction ② from the middle of April. These two support breakouts accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3) - which are a part of the primary downward impulse wave ③ from June.

GBP/USD is expected to fall further inside the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next sell targets 1.5100 and 1.5000. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the resistance level 1.5200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6587

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/CHF: buy targets - 1.1000 and 1.1050
30 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/CHF completed intermediate wave (4)
• Next buy targets - 1.1000 and 1.1050

EUR/CHF continues to rise – following the earlier sharp upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 1.0840 (which also previously reversed the pair with the daily Morning Star at the start of September), 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp impulse wave 5 and the upper channel line of the daily up channel from April. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – marking the end of previous wave (4).

EUR/CHF is likely to rise further in the next intermediate impulse wave (5) (which belongs to the extended primary Ⓒ-wave from April) toward the next buy targets 1.1000 and 1.1050 (top of wave (3)).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6588

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 1

By Kira Iukhtenko



US Dollar remains supported after the release of ADP NFP on Wednesday (200K versus 192K expected). The figures increase expectations for the upbeat official NFP on Friday (forecast 202K).

However, it is not all so bright in the US economy: Chicago PMI entered the contraction territory in September, falling from 54.4 to 48.7. On Thursday, the markets will be watching the US manufacturing PMI – negative surprises could continue here as well. However, for now the market reaction for the news remains muted – we expect the US Dollar to strengthen further later in the week.

Euro remains pressured by the QE extension talks. EUR/USD slipped below the 1.1200 mark. We see a “long-legged doji” reversal candle on the daily chart. Support lies at 1.1100 and 1.1050, while resistance – at 1.1280. Euro zone will also publish a bunch of PMI indices tomorrow.

GBP/USD attempted to move up, but failed to fix above the 1.5160 resistance. We still target 1.5050 and expect a bullish reversal from here. Watch the UK manufacturing PMI tomorrow.

China PMIs are, probably, the most important indices from the tomorrow’s range. Asian markets entered a corrective phase these days, but how long will the optimism live?

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6593

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for Oct 1

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1269, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1333

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.80, TAKE PROFIT 123.13 (revised), STOP LOSS 118.95

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.4973, STOP LOSS 1.5220 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9690, TAKE PROFIT 1.0129 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9665

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 134.85, TAKE PROFIT 131.30, STOP LOSS 135.45 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1104, STOP LOSS 1.0823

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 179.32, STOP LOSS 183.43

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7300

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6420, TAKE PROFIT 0.6130, STOP LOSS 0.6485

Trade ideas:

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6602

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 2

By Elizabeth Belugina

Concerns about a sharp slowdown in the global economy somewhat declined as China’s manufacturing data for September were largely steady from the previous month (49.8 vs. 49.7). This helped US dollar against the refuge currencies, though weak ISM manufacturing PMI sent the greenback down other Forex majors. USD also remains under pressure ahead of the release of US labor market data on Friday. According to the consensus forecast, US nonfarm payrolls rose by 202K in September, while the unemployment rate remained low at 5.1%. As usual, the release is expected to ignite the market’s volatility.

EUR/USD tested lower levels for the second day, though 55- and 100-day Mas in the 1.1140 area provided support. Support is at 1.1130, 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1015. Resistance is in the 1.1200/15 zone ahead of 1.1240, 1.1270, 1.1300 and 1.1370. The ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at 01:30 GMT. This speech should be interesting given that the negative surprise in the euro area’s inflation figures and the increased expectations of more QE from the European Central Bank.

GBP/USD keeps trying to hold above 1.5100, but the sellers don’t let it get higher. Still, manufacturing PMI was rather good and this helps support to hold. A move above 1.5200/15 is needed to lighten the mood and give bulls a chance to recover to 1.5300/30. Britain will release construction PMI at 08:30 GMT on Friday (positive forecast). Support is at 1.5088 and 1.5000.

USD/JPY has been consolidating between 120.30 and 119.50. Data released in Japan were mixed: Tankan manufacturing index declined, while services indicator rose. The pair remains within sideways trend with support at 119.50, 119.25 and 119.00. Resistance is at 120.00. 120.35, 120.60 and 121.00.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7080 encouraged by a reprieve in risk sentiment and the fact that it was technically oversold. Aussie broke above resistance at 0.7040, which is now acting as support. As long as the pair remains above this point it retains the chance to rise to 0.7100 and probably even to 0.7200 where it will find strong resistance. Watch the release of Australian retail sales at 01:30 GMT (positive forecast).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6609