Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/USD: sell target - 0.7100
22 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/USD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (5)
• Next sell target - 0.7100

AUD/USD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance level 0.7400, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.7400 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 3 from June and by the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from the start of September (which has enclosed the previous ABC wave (4)).

AUD/USD is likely to fall further in the active intermediate impulse wave (5) toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6825

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 22

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1350, TAKE PROFIT 1.1495, STOP LOSS 1.1290

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.60, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 119.12

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2970, TAKE PROFIT 1.3177, STOP LOSS 1.2870

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 136.22, TAKE PROFIT 133.99, STOP LOSS 136.76

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7335, TAKE PROFIT 0.7197, STOP LOSS 0.7400

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 183.45

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0865, TAKE PROFIT 1.0713, STOP LOSS 1.0895

Trade ideas:

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9535, TAKE PROFIT 0.9676, STOP LOSS 0.9473 (revised)

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

_____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6823

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 23

By Elizabeth Belugina



The euro slumped on dovish comments of the ECB’s president Mario Draghi on Thursday. Draghi said that the ECB would keep conducting quantitative easing (QE) until September 2016 or longer if necessary. According to Draghi, there is no shortage of the bonds for the ECB to buy. The main bearish statement, which gave such force to the bears, was that the central bank discussed the possibility of the deposit rate cut at its meeting. EUR/USD found some support at 1.1170 (100-day MA). The trend line support since August was breached and now acts as strong resistance in the 1.1250 area. We recommend selling the euro on the pullbacks up. Further support is at 1.1125 and 1.1100 ahead of 1.1015. The euro zone’s flash October manufacturing and services PMIs will be released on Friday (07:00-08:00 GMT). The forecasts project a slight decline in readings.

Also note, that the US dollar was strong not only versus the euro, but also against British pound and Japanese yen, as American unemployment claims were at their best readings since 2000. GBP/USD tried to rise above 1.5500 on bright national data: UK retail sales jumped by 1.9% in September (forecast: +0.3%), though August change was revised down to -0.4%. However, after the US data releases cable fell to 1.5400. A close below this level will significantly reduce the possibility of the break to the upside. Focus is on 1.5380 and 1.5330 (200-day MA) on the downside.

USD/JPY rose above 120.00, but is going to face a very serious resistance in the 120.90/121.00 zone. Support is at 120.00 and 119.60. AUD/USD was holding above an important support at 0.7200 as the ECB meeting improved the market’s risk sentiment. However, the pull back up may be limited by resistance at 0.7280/0.7300.
More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6833

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/AUD: sell targets - 1.5200 and 1.5100
23 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/AUD broke support levels 1.5430 and 1.5320
• Next sell targets - 1.5200 and 1.5100

EUR/AUD continues to fall strongly inside the active minor impulse wave 3 (which recently reversed down twice from the resistance zone lying between resistance level 1.5800 and 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward price move from August). This impulse wave then broke the support levels 1.5430 (which reversed the price earlier this month) and 1.5320. The breakout of these support levels was preceded by the breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from April – which intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair.

EUR/AUD is likely to fall further in the accelerated downward impulse wave 3 toward the next sell targets at the support levels 1.5200 and 1.5100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6837

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/CHF: buy target - 0.6800
23 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/CHF broke pivotal resistance level 0.6500
• Next buy target - 0.6800

NZD/CHF recently broke sharply above the pivotal resistance level 0.6500 (which reversed the previous minor correction (iv) in August, as you can see below). The breakout of this resistance level was preceded by the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the earlier sharp downward impulse wave from April. The breakout of these resistance levels greatly accelerated the active (c)-wave, which belongs to the minor ABC correction 2 from the end of August.

NZD/CHF is likely to rise further in the active waves (c) and 2 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.6800 (previous strong support level, which reversed the pair multiple times in May).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6838

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for October 25-30
23 October 2015
By Kira Iukhtenko

Last week the US dollar has recovered some ground after the ECB meeting on Thursday. Dovish Mario Draghi’s comments pushed the US Dollar index to the resistance of the “autumn” sideways channel at 96.50. It is too early to predict a longer term recovery, though. Break above 97 points is needed to confirm the bullish reversal.

Economic calendar for the new week is full of important releases. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, while on Thursday we’ll watch the Q3 GDP. PCE index and employment cost index are to be released on Friday.

We do not expect these macro data to change the flat trend in USD. According to the futures market, the chance for a rate hike in October is less than 6%. Press conference will be organized only if a policy change takes place.

Q3 GBP is forecasted to slow down from 3.9% to about 1.5% on the back of the weaker external demand for the US goods. The only bearish risk for the greenback this week is the quarterly Employment Cost Index – a recovery from a record low of 0.2% would be an upbeat signal for the Fed in December.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6840

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 23

Open positions:

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7217, TAKE PROFIT 0.7002, STOP LOSS 0.7312

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2970, TAKE PROFIT 1.3218, STOP LOSS 1.2930

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7335, TAKE PROFIT 0.7197, STOP LOSS 0.7335 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 188.31, STOP LOSS 184.41

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5420, TAKE PROFIT 1.5201, STOP LOSS .5525

EUR/CAD: SELL AT 1.4640, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4750

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL at 1.1180/85

USD/JPY: Possibly BUY at 120.35/25

USD/CHF: Possibly BUY

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6835

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for October 26-30

By Kira Iukhtenko

GBP/USD failed to overcome the 1.5500 resistance on the past week. This is the trend line, connecting August and September highs. Support 1.5410 was broken after the dovish ECB meeting on Thursday. This move negated our bullish forecast for the cable.

Break below the 1.5360 support will open the way to 1.5330 (trend support, yellow line on the chart). Break below this mark would confirm a reversal chart pattern. Our medium-term bearish targets will then move to 1.5000.

Watch the UK Q3 GDP data on Tuesday – this is the major release in Great Britain this week. Economic growth could have slowed a little. You should also pay attention to the FOMC meeting results on Wednesday and to the US GDP on Thursday. These releases will set the new reality for the cable.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6843

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for October 26-30

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD fell below 1.1100 in the past week. The pair was hit both by the negative news from the euro area and revival of the market’s demand for the US dollars.

The European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi said that the regulator is open to increasing monetary stimulus and even discussed the possibility of the deposit rate cut. Although Draghi only suggested policy easing in December, the market got wild about it. The decline of the euro, which followed Draghi’s comments, was the biggest since the ECB announced quantitative easing (QE) in January.

Next week pay attention to German Ifo business climate index on Monday and flash inflation figures on Friday, as well as at the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday.

From the technical point of view, the euro reached the lower border of the ‘flag’ formation formed after the long-term downtrend. As the flag is a continuation pattern, the single currency now looks very vulnerable for downside. There is scope for an increase in the short positions on the euro.

Support levels are 1.1070, 1.1015 and 1.0800. We believe that EUR/USD might need some further catalysts to continue its decent from the current levels like positive US data surprises, more hawkish Fed, weak euro zone’s economic readings. Anyhow, we don’t recommend to buy the euro as the ECB made it clear that it wants weaker currency. We believe that the sellers will materialize around resistance located at 1.1170 and 1.1250. A break below 1.1050 will be also a reason for careful new shorts.

Weekly EUR/USD

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6845

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for October 26-30

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY rose to the upper border of its September-October trading range in the 121.00 area.

Dovish comments from the European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi improved the market’s risk sentiment, and demand for the yen as a safe haven declined. In addition, after the ECB hinted at possibility of policy easing in December, the expectations of the additional monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have significantly increased.

The Bank of Japan will meet on Friday. The meeting will be accompanied by the release of the updated economic and inflation forecasts. So far, Japanese officials have been constantly repeating that there is no need for more easing from the BOJ. Still, remembering the central bank’s surprise move of 2014, the market doesn’t believe these denials.

The market will have to wait until of the end of the next week to find out where the BOJ is standing. Until then Japan will release retail sales on Wednesday, industrial production on Thursday and inflation earlier on Friday. Low inflation is the main argument for the Bank of Japan to ease policy. According to the forecasts, Japan’s core inflation probably slipped for a second month in September, while factory output fell for a third month in a row. However, oil prices are now more stable than in the autumn of 2014 and the nation’s labor market is in a rather good shape. This is why the central bank may stay on hold.

The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday will surely have a significant impact on the pair, though the further trend will depend mostly on the Bank of Japan’s decision. Additional stimulus will make USD/JPY skyrocket to 123.00 and higher. Other resistance levels are at 121.76/80, 122.00 and 122.50. If those who expects increase in stimulus get disappointed, the pair will drop, but 117.00 (long-term uptrend support) should limit the decline. Other support levels include 120.00, 119.60 and 118.80.

Daily USD/JPY

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6846