Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/GBP: sell target - 0.7000
5 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/GBP falling inside accelerated impulse waves (3) and ③
• Next sell target - 0.7000

EUR/GBP has been falling sharply in the last two trading weeks – following the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 0.7500 and 0.7400 (which also previously reversed the intermediate corrective wave (A) in May, as you can see below). The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active primary impulse wave ③ - which then broke the daily Rising Wedge from July and the support levels 0.7250, 0.7200 and 0.7100.

EUR/GBP is likely to fall in the accelerated impulse waves (3) and ③ toward the next sell target at the round support level 0.7000.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6979

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 6

Elizabeth Belugina

The Federal Reserve’s Chair Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that the central bank’s December meeting would be a ‘live’ possibility for a rate hike if good data were released by that time supporting the Fed’s positive economic outlook. According to the futures market, the probability of a rate increase next month rose to 58%. Traders now focus on the release of the US non-farm payrolls at 13:50 GMT on Friday. According to the consensus forecast, American economy added about 180K jobs in October after gaining only 142K in September, while the unemployment rate slid from 5.1% to 5.0%. The market will likely to get quieter ahead of the release.

EUR/USD breached 1.0900, which is now acting as resistance. The euro area released weak data: German factory orders kept falling, while the region’s retail sales also contracted. Still, EUR/USD got some support from higher EUR/GBP. The downside targets are 1.0820 and 1.0800.

GBP/USD fell on the dovish comments from the Bank of England. Only one member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) proposed to raise the benchmark interest rate, the regulator lowered growth and inflation forecasts and underlined the weakness of global economy. Support line from October lows is located in the 1.5280 area and a fix below it will open the way down to 1.5200 and 1.5165. Further, support us at 1.5100. Resistance at 1.5340 (200-day MA), 1.5380 and 1.5380 has solidified. The picture looks negative.

USD/JPY moved above last week’s consolidation range. US dollar is driven up by US Treasury yields, which rose to the highest levels since 2011. The pair is currently trying to overcome 100-day MA and 61.8% Fibo of the August decline in the 121.80/122.00 area. The next Fibonacci level lies right above 123.00 – this is the level to focus on in case of good figures from the US on Friday. Support is at 121.50, 121.15 and 121.00. The best trading strategy is to buy on the retreat to these levels or look for other opportunities to enter longs.

Oil prices remain under pressure after the decline on Wednesday. Australian dollar is hampered by the strength of its US counterpart. Positive comments from the RBA’s Governor Stevens were not much of help to Aussie. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its quarterly monetary policy statement early on Friday. 55-day MA at 0.7137 is providing some support for AUD/USD, but it remains vulnerable for a decline to 0.7015 (September support line). Resistance is at 0.7200 and 0.7280.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6986

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: buy target - 123.00
6 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/JPY reached buy target 121.00
• Next buy target - 123.00

USD/JPY continues to rise after the recent breakout of the pivotal resistance level 121.00 (which has been repeatedly reversing this currency pair from the start of September and which was set in our previous forecast as the buy target for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 of the 5thintermediate impulse wave (5) from August.

USD/JPY is currently approaching the resistance level 122.00. If the price breaks this resistance level – the pair can then rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 123.00 (previous low of the earlier (b)-wave).

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6990

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for November 9-15

Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY made a break to the upside and jumped to 123.00.
US nonfarm payrolls came out significantly above forecasts, and other US labor market data were also quite positive. The expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December increased, and this is a bullish driver for the pair. At the same time,the pair lacks bullish drivers from the Bank of Japan: Japanese officials say nothing new and give no hints that there will be an increase in monetary stimulus. This may slow the pair’s advance a bit. Still, we are working with bullish positions at this market.

The upcoming week will once again be light in terms of economic data from Japan. Only releases of current account on Monday and core machinery orders on Thursday are worth mentioning.

Pay attention to the Chinese data releases in the first 3 days of the week as these data will influence the market’s risk sentiment. Demand for Japanese yen rises in times of risk aversion and declines when the market’s risk appetite improves.

Above 123.00 resistance lies at 124.00, 124.50 and 125.00. Previous resistance at 122.00 and 121.50.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6993

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for November 9-15

By Kira Iukhtenko

It was a profitable week for the US dollar. The greenback rose to a 7-month high versus the euro on strong labor market figures. US economy added 270K new jobs in October, while unemployment declined to 5%.

The US Dollar index jumped above 99 points on the news and is now close to its historical high of 100.30 (March 2015 high). We expect this level to be broken in the near term.

Strong data give the green light for a first rate hike in December. According to the futures market, a 70% possibility is now priced in. These expectations open a long bullish road to the US currency.

Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. We’ll focus on the retail sales on Friday – growth is expected. However, be ready for some pullbacks in USD, as the currency already is oversold.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6996

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for November 9-15

By Kira Iukhtenko

Dovish Bank of England’s remarks and hawkish Federal Reserve pulled the British pound much lower over the past week. The currency pair; GBP/USD lost almost 400 pips despite the upbeat economic figures released in Britain.

The pair remains in a descending channel (red lines on the chart). We see space for a decline to 1.5000 in the near-term. For now, there are no fundamental reasons for the pair to fall below this support. However, it will all depend on the market volatility in the new week. Major resistance is now seen at 1.5250, 1.5330 and 1.5500 (channel resistance).

As for the UK economic calendar in the new week, pay attention to the labor market data on Wednesday. Employment figures could show improvement and pull the pound higher. Bank of England will also deliver a press conference on the Inflation report on Wednesday.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6995

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for November 9-15

Elizabeth Belugina

The divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve remains the main driver of EUR/USD.
This driver is pointing to the downside. The ECB president Mario Draghi said that the central bank’s asset-purchase program could be boosted and other tools may be used to ensure inflation will return to its goal. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen, on the other hand, signaled that American regulator may raise interest rate in December. US labor market data increased the possibility of such step. Nonfarm payrolls rose above forecast in October gaining 271K.

Next week will start with the meetings of the European finance ministers. The officials will discuss Greece. The creditors are currently reviewing Greece’s bailout, there are still some disagreements, but the nation is said to show progress. We will also hear more from Mario Draghi on Wednesday as he will attend the forum organized by the Bank of England. Pay attention to the euro area’s GDP releases on Friday. Economists predicted last month that the region’s economy added 0.4% in Q3 up after rising by 0.3% in Q2.

EUR/USD fell below 1.0800. A close below this level on Friday will confirm further bearish scenario for the single currency. Next support levels are at the big figures – 1.0700, 1.0600 and 1.0500. Resistance is at 1.0900, 1.1000 and 1.1050. We stick to our recommendation of selling the euro on its attempts to recover or on the break of support levels.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6994

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 9

Open positions:

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0240, STOP LOSS 0.9833 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3080

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 133.45

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7026, STOP LOSS 0.7205

EUR/CHF: SHORT at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0845

EUR/CAD: SHORT at 1.4355, TAKE PROFIT 1.4153, STOP LOSS 1.4455

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0571, STOP LOSS 1.0903

USD/JPY: BUY at 122.75, TAKE PROFIT 124.16, STOP LOSS 121.95

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5080, TAKE PROFIT 1.4857, STOP LOSS 1.5155

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7065, TAKE PROFIT 0.6896, STOP LOSS 0.7136

GBP/JPY: BUY at 184.25, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 183.65

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7011

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: buy targets - 124.00 and 125.00
9 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/JPY reached buy target 123.00
• Next buy targets - 124.00 and 125.00

USD/JPY opened this week with the upward gap – following the earlier sharp breakout of the resistance level 123.00, which was set in our previous forecast as the buy target for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level follows the earlier breakout of the two resistance levels 121.00 and 122.00 – each of which accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the 5th intermediate impulse wave (5) from the end of August, as you can see below.

USD/JPY is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 124.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 125.00.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7012

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 10

By Elizabeth Belugina


The advance of the US dollar after the release of strong labor market data in America on Friday paused on Monday as the market participants took profit.

EUR/USD recovered from Friday lows just above 1.0700 to resistance in the 1.0800 area. The meetings of the European finance ministers will continue on Tuesday, but the real impact on the euro may come only on Wednesday with the speech of the ECB president Mario Draghi. Unless the ECB steps away from signaling the upcoming policy easing, the euro will keep declining. We recommend small short positions. Support is at 1.0660 and 1.0600. Note as the euro moved below 1.0800, support levels became very weak.

GBP/USD retraced about 50% of Friday’s decline, and the bulls met resistance at 1.5115. If the pair stays below this level, we will favor small shorts. Pound has strong support at 1.5000, but this level may come under pressure. There will be no releases in the UK on Tuesday: traders will be waiting for the jobs report on Wednesday. Other resistance levels are at 1.5165 and 1.5200. Further retracement up will constitute the selling opportunity.

USD/JPY edged up to 123.50 after big gains on Friday. Resistance is at 124.00 and 124.50. Be careful with longs at the current levels as the pair is currently overbought. Watch Chinese data on Tuesday as they will affect the market’s risk sentiment (risk aversion is negative for USD/JPY). Support is at 123.00, 122.50 and 122.00.

AUD/USD found support around 0.7025 (September support line). Weak Chinese import data has weighed on the Aussie. Australia will release NAB business confidence and home loans early on Tuesday. Chinese figures will be also important. A break below 0.7000 will lead the pair to 0.6950 and 0.6900. Resistance is at 0.7100/25 and 0.7200.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7019