Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[FBS]

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

USDJPY

USD/JPY is retracing a little lower from 104.60 (5-year high 104.60). Our next target for the pair lies at 105.55.

USD/JPY holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku. The Kijun line lies above the Tenkan line, but both lines are flat.
The pair remains supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50);
H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line (bearish signal);
104.00/103.75 is the key area of support for now.
Support: 104.00/103.90, 103.75, 103.40

Resistance: 104.60, 105.00, 105.55

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

[FBS]

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)
USD/CHF

USD/CHF is correcting lower after hitting the 0.9000 mark (38.2% Fibo) on Friday.
We believe the last week’s break above the 0.8975 resistance opened the way to 0.9050.
The pair remains supported by the wide bearish Ichimoku, the 100-period MA and the middle Bollinger (0.8970/45 area);
H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line.
Support: 0.8930/20, 0.8900/8890
Resistance: 0.9000, 0.9030, 0.9050

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Upcoming events:
USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index
USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending
USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

[FBS]

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

AUD/USD

AUD/USD recovered to $0.8950.
The pair returned to the upper Bollinger band and approached 55-period MA.
All MAs keep declining that indicates that a medium-term downtrend is well in place.
The prices are below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud. However, the Cloud stopped expanding, while Tenkan and Kijun formed a golden cross, weak as it is below the Cloud. Still these lines provide support ($0.8900).
MACD has reached the 0 area on its way up. RSI rose almost to 60.
There will be no news from Australia to help Aussie extend upward correction.
Resistance: $0.8970, $.8990/9000, $0.9040
Support: $0.8900, $0.8820, $0.8800, $0.8755

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Upcoming events
USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index
USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending
USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

[FBS]

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)
AUD/USD

As expected, USD/CAD corrected down to 1.0635.
The pair is supported at the current level (100-period MA, Ichimoku Cloud top).
200-period MA is still going up, so the medium-term uptrend continues. 55-period MA is horizontal though and below the 100-period one.
MACD is going down and approaching 0 from. RSI (14) declined to 45.
The bullish Ichimoku Cloud stopped expanding. Tenkan-sen turned down.
The loss of 1.0660 allows downside scope for 1.0600, the lower Bollinger band.

Support: 1.0635, 1.0615, 1.0600, 1.0560
Resistance: 1.0685, 1.0700, 1.0725, 1.0745

Chart. H4 USD/CAD

Upcoming events
USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index
USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending
CAD - 13:30 GMT - GDP
USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

[FBS]

Dec. 24: Asian session

Asian stocks rose boosted by the gains in the American session as the upbeat US spending data showed that US economic recovery gaining momentum. In addition, China’s central bank moved to ease a cash crunch by making its first market-wide money injection in three weeks.

Japan’s Nikkei went up by about 0.8% to 6-year high above 16,000 after Tokyo markets opened after a holiday. USD/JPY rose to 104.41.

AUD/USD declined to $0.8907 after peaking to $0.8960 yesterday. NZD/USD edged down to $0.8176. Gold dipped below the $1,200 level yesterday and is heading for its biggest annual loss in three decades.

EUR/USD slid to $1.3675 after it tested $1.3716 on Monday. GBP/USD is consolidating around $1.6345.

 

[FBS]

EUR/USD: how do the banks trade?

There’s a choice among various shorts.

BoA/Merrill: Short at $1.3764 with stop at $1.3834 and take profit at $1.3479

Credit Agricole: Short at $1.3780 with stop at $1.4160 and take profit at $1.3300

Credit Suisse: Short at $1.3800 with stop at $1.3860 and take profit at $1.3415

Commerzbank: Short at $1.3750 with stop at $1.3815 and take profit at $1.3405

Commerzbank: Short at $1.3665 with stop at $1.3815

Morgan Stanley: Short at $1.3600 with stop at $1.3750 and take profit at $1.2700

 

[FBS]

Nomura: trajectory for USD/JPY

Analysts at Nomura have outlines a scenario for USD/JPY using Elliott waves. The specialists expect the pair to trade sideways in the 102.50/104.50 during the next month in the wave (4) and then rally to 106.00 in the wave (5).

 

[FBS]

Credit Agricole: Q1 GBP forecasts

GBP/USD

GBP/USD to weaken to $1.6200 in the stronger USD environment. Britain's officials will try to talk the pound down in Q1 2014.

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

EUR/GBP

As for EUR/GBP, the pair is expected to fall towards 0.8200 by end-March. Pound will gain some ground vs. the euro on a wave of EUR sales.

Chart. Weekly EUR/GBP

 

[FBS]

Dec. 27: Asian session

Most Asian stocks went up after big gains at Wall Street where Dow Jones made a record high close. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.25%. Chinese shares rose as money rates eased and China set its yuan at an historic high.

USD/JPY tested briefly levels 105.00 today and EUR/JPY – 144.00. Yen hit 5-year lows versus the greenback and euro. Japanese data showed that the nation’s manufacturing activity is expanding at the fastest clip in more than 7 years, while Japanese firms added workers at the quickest pace in over 6 years. Japan’s core consumer price inflation in November rose to a 5-year high. This means that the country’s making progress in its fight against deflation.

Australian and New Zealand dollars have both strengthened in the late Asian session. AUD/USD has recovered above the $0.8900 mark. However, the Monday bearish gap still remains open. NZD/USD rose to $0.8170. The pair is supported by the 200-day moving average.

EUR/USD rose to $1.3745. GBP/USD went up to $1.6447.

 

[FBS]

EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 27)

Daily. In the week ahead the New Year the US dollar is losing ground versus almost all major world currencies. EUR/USD recovered to 1.3740 by the end of the week. Bullish sentiment strengthened: prices have gone through resistance of the Tenkan-sen, and will soon be fixing above it. The Ichimoku Cloud also points to the strengthening of the bulls, but in the longer term.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. Here EUR/USD is leaving the Cloud. The pair’s supported by the short-term Golden Cross (C). The Cloud itself looks positive. It started widening up due to the growth of Tenkan-sen. The position of the bulls is strengthening. Note though that there’s a serious resistance at $1.3755. In addition Chinkou Span shows that the market is overbought. So, when the market reaches the level mentioned above, the market can either begin consolidation or make a corrective decline to the lower edge of the Cloud.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD