Tifia Forex Broker Daily Market Analytics, Analytics and trading recommendations by Tifia Company

[Tifia FX]

S&P500: markets continue to recover

26/02/2018

Current dynamics

Last week, the main US stock indexes completed in positive territory. The main increase of the indices in the previous week was due to strong growth on Friday. While indices are growing, investors are still in a state of confusion after the recent stock market crash observed earlier this month. Market participants are trying to understand - what is happening in the market: the markets resumed growth to new record highs or it is a temporary rebound before a new jerk down.

The recent collapse in the stock markets was triggered, mainly, by increased inflation in the US, which could lead to more active actions of the Fed in the matter of tightening monetary policy. Against the backdrop of stable economic growth in the US and because of increased inflation, the Fed will be forced to raise rates at a faster pace in order to avoid overheating of the economy.

And this is a strong negative factor for the stock markets, which usually grow against the backdrop of soft monetary policy and fall, if the rates have started to rise. Much also depends on the speed and scale of tightening monetary policy.

In this regard, it is worth recalling the words of the former head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, that only raising rates is not enough to break the bullish trend of the US stock market, and a gradual increase in the rate indicates the strength of the American economy.

Now market participants will wait for the first speech of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, before the congress, which will be held on Tuesday (13:30 GMT). Investors want to hear from Powell, what is the probability that this year rates will be raised more than 3 times.

At the same time, many investors believe that during his first speech with a report on the results of the first half of the year, the new head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will point to a good form of the US economy, however, he will not say anything new about the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed. It is likely that Powell will try to emphasize the need for a gradual increase in the rates of the Fed, avoiding any hint of the possibility of a faster rate hike.

If Powell only hints at the possibility of raising rates more than 3 times this year, then the reaction of the markets can follow immediately: the dollar will jump in price, and the stock indexes will again fall down.

Meanwhile, the S&P500 index is trading higher for the third day in a row, adding to the price from the opening of today's trading day.

After the strongest collapse in early February, from February 9 futures on the S&P500 steadily adds to the price, gradually restoring positions, and at the beginning of today's European session S&p500 is trading near the mark of 2760.0. The index finished in positive territory 8 of the last 11 sessions since February 9 began recovery after the fall. Over the past two weeks, the S & P500 has gained about 5.0%, which was the strongest two-week increase since February 2015.

The S & P500 grew almost fourfold from the 2009 low, and the yield of 10-year US government bonds in 2016 dropped to 1.336% from a level above 4% recorded in 2008. Now, another increase in the yield of 10-year US government bonds above 3% may provoke another decline of not only the S & P500 index, but the entire US stock market, followed by other global stock markets.

From the news for today, which can cause the growth of volatility in the financial markets, we are waiting for the speech (at 13:00 GMT) of the member of the FRS Committee on Open Markets, James Bullard and ECB President Mario Draghi (at 14:00 GMT).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2725.0, 2682.0, 2630.0, 2580.0, 2530.0

Resistance levels: 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2688.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2565.0, 2530.0

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2780.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

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[Tifia FX]

XAU/USD: Positive dynamics, on the whole, persists

27/02/2018

Current dynamics

While market participants are waiting for the beginning of the speech of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who speaks for the first time before the Congress, trading activity in the financial markets remains low. Nevertheless, in the first half of the European session, the dollar is gradually turning into an offensive.

During the December Fed meeting, when the interest rate was again raised, the leaders of the US central bank announced the need for 3 interest rate increases in 2018 and 2 increases in 2019 to avoid overheating of the economy. At the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support the previously planned plans to tighten monetary policy. Judging by the minutes published last week from the January meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve decided that the economy will grow at a faster pace.

The expected strong increase in budget spending in the US, as well as the stimulation of the economy by lowering taxes on the activities of US corporations against a background of low unemployment, will contribute to the growth of inflationary pressures. This, in turn, can force the Fed to accelerate the pace of normalizing monetary policy.

The first rate increase under the new chairman Jerome Powell this year is likely to happen already at the March meeting of the Fed, and now market participants expect that in March, the leaders of the Fed will add another rate hike to the three planned this year.

And it is precisely such signals that market participants will wait for today and tomorrow from Powell. From him, investors want to hear what the probability of a more rapid increase in interest rates.

If Powell signals to market participants that there is a high probability of 4 interest rate increases this year, then the dollar quotations will rise and another US stock market collapse may occur.

As a rule, with an increase in the interest rate, the quotes of the national currency are growing. So far, there is an opposite picture - the dollar is under pressure. The growth of the federal budget deficit, the growing deficit of the foreign trade balance, which reached an impressive amount of 566 billion dollars in December, the highest level since 2008, causes a negative attitude of investors towards the dollar.

Neither the Fed's efforts to tighten monetary policy, nor verbal intervention by representatives of the Federal Reserve and the White House on the desirability of a strong dollar, do not yet cause a response from buyers of the dollar.

So yesterday's statement by the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin that "in the long term the United States needs a strong dollar" did not affect the dynamics of the dollar.

Now all the attention of investors today and tomorrow will be focused on the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell. On how tough his speeches will be, the dynamics of the dollar for the near future will depend.

During periods of increasing interest rates, gold usually becomes cheaper, giving way to assets that generate revenue, such as government bonds.

Meanwhile, the price of gold keeps positive dynamics. Many economists believe that, despite the expected increase in interest rates, gold still has good chances for growth as a means of protecting against the growth of consumer inflation.

The likelihood of further growth in gold prices outweighs the likelihood of their decline. The long-term targets for the growth of the gold price will be the mark of 1390.00, 1425.00 dollars per troy ounce. However, these goals can be set only after the price of gold overcomes the mark of $ 1365.00 per troy ounce (the maximum of this year).

Recall that the speech of Jerome Powell will start today at 13:30 (GMT).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1332.00, 1329.00, 1308.00, 1290.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00

Resistance levels: 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1328.00. Stop-Loss 1342.00. Take-Profit 1308.00, 1290.00

Buy Stop 1342.00. Stop-loss 1328.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: The euro is under pressure before the weekend

28/02/2018

Current dynamics

As reported on Wednesday (10:00 GMT) by the European Statistical Agency (Eurostat), consumer prices in the Eurozone in February rose by 1.2% (in annual terms). The data suggest that inflation growth rates were the weakest since December 2016 and well below the ECB target level (just below 2%). In February, the rate of inflation slowed for the third month in a row. This index is a key indicator for the ECB in assessing inflation. The current value of the index indicates that the leaders of the ECB will continue to be cautious when considering the issue of reducing the stimulation of the European economy.

As ECB President Mario Draghi said on Monday, it is too early to talk about curtailing the quantitative easing program, since inflation is still far from the target level.

At the same time, the Eurozone economy continues to grow at a good pace (it is expected that GDP growth in 2017 was 2.5%). In 2017, the economy of the Eurozone grew at the fastest pace over the past 10 years, and, apparently, will keep momentum this year.

Mario Draghi again stressed that the ECB will continue its course on monetary policy without any changes. At a recent meeting of the ECB in 2017, it was decided that the program for the purchase of European assets will continue, at least until September 2018. At the same time, ECB interest rates will remain at the same low level for a long time after the end of the QE program.

Meanwhile, optimistic statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the US economy, made by him on Tuesday, supported the dollar. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, reached the highest level since early February, rising to around 90.40, completely closing the decline for the last two weeks.

Jerome Powell drew attention to improving economic prospects, which was considered by investors as an indication that this year the central bank can raise interest rates 4 times. Investors have corrected the forecasts for interest rates. According to CME, the probability of 4 rate increases this year is estimated at 34%. On Monday, this probability was 24%, and a month ago - 23%.

The EUR / USD fell 350 points from the peaks in February to a minimum in seven weeks near the 1.2200 mark.

The euro remains under pressure also because of investors' preoccupation before the elections in Italy and voting in the Social Democratic Party of Germany on the establishment of the ruling coalition this weekend.

Today, market participants will closely monitor the macro data that will be published today in the US (13:30 GMT).

Among the published data - annual GDP (for the 4th quarter), the index of expenditure on personal consumption and the price index of personal consumption expenditure. The growth of indicators is expected. Thus, GDP in Q4 is expected to grow by 2.5%, and for the entire 2017 GDP growth was also + 2.5%, which is higher than the average of 2% observed in the early 2000s.

When confirming the data, the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen, including in the EUR / USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

After in the middle of this month the EUR / USD has reached the next multi-month maximum near the mark of 1.2555, the last two weeks there has been a decline in EUR / USD.

As a result of yesterday's decline against the background of the strengthening of the dollar after the statements of Jerome Powell, EUR / USD broke through the support level 1.2280 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and at the beginning of today's European session is trading near support level 1.2200 (low in February, lower mid-January consolidation zone, EMA50 on day chart and the Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014).

This is a strong level of support, the breakdown of which will significantly worsen prospects for the bullish trend EUR / USD.

Long-term upward dynamics persists as long as EUR / USD is trading above the key support levels 1.1790 (Fibonacci 38.2% and EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

The signal for the resumption of purchases will be a return to the zone above the resistance level 1.2280. In this case, EUR / USD will again move towards the recent highs near the level of 1.2555.

Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1700

Resistance levels: 1.2280, 1.2330, 1.2340, 1.2400, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2180. Stop-Loss 1.2220. Take-Profit 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1700

Buy Stop 1.2220. Stop-Loss 1.2180. Take-Profit 1.2285, 1.2330, 1.2340, 1.2400, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: pound remains vulnerable

01/03/2018

Current dynamics

The pound on Thursday slightly strengthened after the publication (at 09:30 GMT) of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK in January. As shown by the data provided by the Bank of England, the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK in January reached a six-month high after a fall in December (67,478 versus 61,692 in December). The January figure was the highest since July 2017 and significantly exceeded the average for six months.

The index of business activity of purchasing managers (PMI) in the manufacturing sector for February was 55.2 versus 55.3 in January (the forecast was 50.0).

The pound received little support after the publication of the data, but, economists believe, for a short while. On Wednesday, the pound declined significantly in the foreign exchange market after some details of the draft agreement on the exit of the UK from the EU became known, according to which, in particular, the creation of a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK is envisaged.

Thus, the dynamics of the pound in the coming months will strongly depend on news about Brexit. Although the collapse of the British economy after the referendum on Brexit in June 2016 did not happen, however, the pound fell sharply, which contributed to a significant acceleration of inflation in the UK. In this regard, the income of the British and their purchasing power declined, which affected domestic trade and retail sales. Since, the British economy is focused, first of all, on the domestic market; the decrease in domestic trade has a negative impact on the country's GDP.

In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound. At the same time, the pound will remain vulnerable against the euro and the dollar against the backdrop of Brexit.

The dollar, on the other hand, receives strong support both from the growing expectations for a faster rate of tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed, as well as from strong macro data coming from the US recently.

Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of a block of important macro data on the US (from 13:30 to 15:00 GMT), as well as the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank Jerome Powell in the banking committee of the Senate (at 15:00 GMT). If he more specifically signals about the high probability of 4 interest rate increases this year, the dollar will receive an additional impetus for growth, including in the GBP / USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3725, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3390, 1.3210

Resistance levels: 1.3890, 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575


Trading Scenarios

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 1.3810. Take-Profit 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3390, 1.3210

Buy Stop 1.3810. Stop-Loss 1.3690. Take-Profit 1.3890, 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

S&P500: indexes continue to decline

02/03/2018

Current dynamics

Major US stock indexes continue to decline, receiving a negative impulse at the beginning of the week from the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell.

As you know, during his first official speech before Congress on Tuesday, Powell drew a very positive picture of the state of the American economy, confirming the Fed's intention to gradually tighten monetary policy.

"Economic prospects remain strong. A further gradual increase in the rate of federal funds will best contribute to the achievement of the goals of the Fed", in his opinion.

Jerome Powell said that the Fed "will continue to seek a balance between avoiding overheating of the economy" and the achievement of annual inflation of 2%. Many investors considered Powell's speech as a signal to the Fed intending to hold 3 interest rate increases planned at the December meeting. Some market participants felt that the Fed could implement even 4 increases instead of the previously planned 3 increases. According to CME, the probability of 4 rate increases this year is estimated by investors at 34%. On Monday, this probability was 24%, and a month ago - 23%.

The tightening of monetary policy negatively affects the dynamics of the stock markets, since it leads to an increase in the cost of borrowing. Investors in this case prefer the dollar as a more reliable form of investment in comparison with highly risky assets.

On Friday, the major US stock indexes are down for the fourth consecutive day.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump, who announced that next week he will approve the plan to introduce new import duties on steel and aluminum by 25% and 10%, respectively, contributed to this decline. Market participants are afraid of accelerating inflation and slowing the growth of US GDP due to new import tariffs. From China and Europe, statements from the authorities have already followed that they will take counter measures to protect their interests.

Since the beginning of the week, the DJIA dropped 3.3% to 24510.0 points, the S & P500 fell 3.1% to 2670.0 points. Thus, DJIA for 2018 decreased by 0.4% and the S & P500 - by 0.2%, again moving into the correction zone. European stock markets also fell. STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.3%, German DAX fell 2.0%, and the British FTSE and French CAC fell 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively.

World trade wars have not brought long-term benefits to anyone. The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to 2.802% from 2.870% on Wednesday, showing the most significant drop since September and indicating that investors are buying safer assets.

Today, important news on the US is not expected. It is likely that the stock indexes, including the S & P500, will finish today's trading session in negative territory. While the S & P500 is below the short-term resistance level of 2725.0 (200-period moving average on 1-hour and 4-hour charts), it is necessary to consider only short positions with objectives at support levels 2630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to growth from February 2016 and EMA144 on the daily chart), 2580.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2672.0, 2630.0, 2580.0, 2530.0

Resistance levels: 2725.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0


Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 2686.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2585.0, 2530.0

Buy Stop 2686.0. Stop-Loss 2665.0. Objectives 2725.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

AUD/USD: there is no reason to change the current RBA monetary policy

05/03/2018

Current dynamics

On Tuesday, when the next meeting is held, the RB of Australia is likely to maintain the current level of the interest rate unchanged (1.5%).

After the previous meeting of the RBA (February 6), a number of macro statistical indicators worsened: inflation expectations and consumer sentiment deteriorated, and the level of retail sales decreased, the labor market deteriorated, and the trade balance deficit doubled.

In a recent speech to Parliament, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowey said that he "would prefer a lower exchange rate". In his opinion, "there is no reason to raise rates in the short term". Lowey noted that "inflation remains low," although "business sentiment is improving".

The key rate of the RBA remains at a record low of 1.5% for the RBA since mid-2016, and economists believe that the central bank will not change it after 2019.

The Reserve Bank of Australia predicts the retention of slow inflation and the inability to achieve full employment over the next few years.

According to Philip Lowey, "the strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar". The Australian dollar remains largely a commodity currency, and an increase in world commodity prices against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, contributes to the growth of the Australian dollar.

The reasons for changing the current monetary policy in the RBA do not see. The RBA's decision on the interest rate, in practice, will not have a noticeable effect on the Australian dollar. But data on China's foreign trade balance (in February) will be published on Thursday (00:30 GMT) may have a much greater impact on the Australian dollar. China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner and buyer of its primary commodities (primarily iron ore, liquefied gas, and agricultural products). The decline in Australian imports to China could have the most negative impact on the Australian dollar.

This week, investors will also follow the publication on Friday (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market (for February). The publication, as expected, of strong values will strengthen the position of the US dollar and give the Fed an extra trump card in the execution of the planned plan to further tighten monetary policy in the US. The different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication at 14:45 and 15:00 (GMT) of indicators of business activity in the US services sector for February. Despite the expected slight decrease, the indices remain well above the 50 mark, which is a positive factor for the USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support levels: 0.7700, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330

Resistance levels: 0.7765, 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7730. Stop-Loss 0.7775. Take-Profit 0.7700, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330

Buy Stop 0.7775. Stop-Loss 0.7730. Take-Profit 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8100

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

NZD/USD: before publishing data from the dairy auction

06/03/2018

Current dynamics

Investors are still assessing the possible long-term impact on international trade relations from the recent decision of the White House to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. "America is first of all". The US, as usual, does not particularly consider the interests of their closest trading partners when it comes to the interests of the US itself. "When a country (the USA) loses many billions of dollars in trade with almost all the countries with which it conducts business, trade wars are good, and they are easy to win", Trump wrote on Twitter, making it clear that these are normal methods of the US administration .

For American companies, primarily working in these sectors of the economy, this may be good, but for the nearest US trading partners - not very much. The European Commission and China announced the possibility of applying retaliatory measures.

If the US stock indices appear to have positively perceived the information on the protection of the domestic market through the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum,

the dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, strengthening against commodity currencies, and declining against the yen and European currencies. The second day the futures for the DXY index, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 other currencies, are trading near the 89.90 mark.

At the beginning of today's European session, the dollar is growing against Canadian and Australian dollars, but is down against the New Zealand dollar.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.

Also worth paying attention to the publication on Thursday (02:00 GMT) of data on China's foreign trade balance (in February) which may have a significant impact on the New Zealand dollar and cause volatility in the NZD / USD pair, as China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand and the buyer of agricultural products of the country.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800

Resistance levels: 0.7258, 0.7265, 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7280. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6900, 0.6865

Buy Stop 0.7280. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

S&P500: investors are concerned about the possibility of commencement of trade wars

07/03/2018

Current dynamics

More recently (at the end of last week), participants in the global financial market were concerned about the US decision to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. Today, this story was developed after it became known about the resignation of the chief economic adviser to President Donald Trump Gary Cohn, who opposed the introduction of new duties. His resignation upset the market participants, pointing out that Trump intends to pursue a tougher policy with regard to trading partners, and can unleash a large-scale trade war.

On this news, the currencies of those countries that actively trade with the US, including the Mexican peso and commodity currencies - the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar - fell sharply.

Also, the main US stock indexes fell, and asylum assets rose in price because of fears about US policy. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 2.863% from 2.877%, while the yen rose 0.4% against the dollar during the Asian trading session.

Representatives of the world's largest economies are extremely negative about the intentions of the White House to introduce import duties.

Thus, the Minister of Economy of Germany, Brigitte Tsipris, said today that "in the event of a worsening situation, the EU is ready to respond appropriately, but our goal is to avoid a trade conflict". "Trade brings prosperity when it is based on exchange and interaction", she said. So far, the signals coming from the US are bothering me".

The EU intends to challenge the planned US introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum.

Investors are worried that the main US trading partners will retaliate and this will start the world trade war, which will negatively affect world economic growth. The EU has already announced the preparation of a package of measures worth 3.5 billion US dollars in respect of imports from the United States. In response, Trump promised to introduce a tax on cars imported from the EU.

The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said on Wednesday that it could be "very bad" for the global economy. "If the process grows, it will be very bad. If retaliatory measures are taken, the world economy will suffer a very strong blow", Philip Lowe said.

Meanwhile, the main US stock indexes are at the beginning of the European trading session in the negative territory after they collapsed at the opening of today's trading day after the resignation of Gary Cohn.

Today we expect a busy trading day.

After 13:15 to 13:30 (GMT), a block of important macro data from the US will be published, including the ADP report on employment in the private sector of the US economy (for February), foreign trade balance (January), inflation indicator of costs per unit labor force and labor productivity outside the agricultural sector for the 4th quarter, at 13:30 the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision will be published.

The growing uncertainty in trade relations between Canada and the United States will help ensure that the Bank of Canada retains the key interest rate unchanged at 1.25%.

We would like to remind you that volatility in this period will rise sharply, and this must be taken into account when making trading decisions.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2672.0, 2630.0, 2590.0, 2530.0

Resistance levels: 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2680.0. Stop-Loss 2735.0. Objectives 2670.0, 2630.0, 2600.0, 2590.0, 2530.0

Buy Stop 2735.0. Stop-Loss 2680.0. Objectives 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

NZD/USD: Positive dynamics persists

12/03/2018

Current dynamics

Published last week with the results of the dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT), showed a slight decline in world prices for dairy products (-0,6%). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. Nevertheless, the New Zealand dollar is the most successful of all other currency-competitors traded against the US dollar in recent days.

Investors continue to assess the impact of the decision of the White House on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum on international trade relations. Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, rose in response to this decision. Economists believe that the decision to impose import duties will positively affect the US economy. At least, the main US stock indexes are growing again, and the NASDAQ100 index updated its absolute maximum on Friday, and on Monday the NASDAQ100 futures are again trading higher, near the 7130.0 mark. Traditionally, it is believed that economic growth is accompanied by an increase in demand for primary commodities. The share of the United States in world GDP is estimated at 16-20%. Accordingly, the growth of the world's largest economy assumes a growing demand for commodities. The current weakening of the US dollar contributes to higher commodity prices, which also positively affects the quotations of commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.

Wednesday (21:45 GMT) is expected to publish data on New Zealand's GDP for the 4th quarter (latest release). It is expected that GDP grew by 0.8% in Q4 (against + 0.6% in Q3), implying an annual GDP growth of about 2.5% -3.0%. This is strong enough data. If the data is confirmed, the New Zealand currency will strengthen, including in the NZD / USD.

On Tuesday at 21:45 (GMT) data on the balance of payments of New Zealand will be published.

Reducing the current account deficit in the balance of payments of New Zealand (expected to reach $ 2.40 billion from NZ $ 4.68 billion) will support the New Zealand currency. In the absence of important news in the economic calendar, flat and low trading volumes are expected in the foreign exchange market today. However, it is worth paying attention to the speech (at 23:45 GMT) of the deputy head of the RBNZ Grant Spencer. If he touches on the RBNZ monetary policy, then the volatility of the New Zealand dollar trades will go up. Rigid rhetoric of his speech on inflation and the likelihood of tightening monetary policy will cause the New Zealand dollar to grow.

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Support levels: 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800

Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7290. Stop-Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165

Buy Stop 0.7330. Stop-Loss 0.7290. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

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