Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest from Forex.ee

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Wednesday, April 26th

The EUR/USD pair lost its upside momentum in early Europe and reversed most part of its overnight gains, amid minor attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions. However, seems that the euro is still keeping its optimism, as traders are pricing in E.Macron’s win at the second round of French election on 7th of May. Moreover, ongoing weakness of the US currency, fueled by doubts that the US government will be able to provide any details on tax reform plans today, is also lending additional leg of support to the major currency pair. Besides taxation plan’s announcement, nothing noteworthy is scheduled in data calendar for this Wednesday, so broad market’s sentiments will remain as a key driver for the pair, however, any abrupt moves will be restricted today, as traders are staying cautious ahead of tomorrow’s ECB Interest Rate Decision.

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Thursday, April 27th

Today the EUR/USD pair managed to recover part of its yesterday’s losses on the back of strong sell-off in the US dollar. Yesterday the dollar came under strong selling pressure against its main competitors, as the US tax reforms plan’s details, provided by D.Trump’s administration, once again left the market unimpressed, causing even more doubts on D.Trump’s ability to fulfill his promises. However, now the pair is trying to consolidate its recent recovery, as traders are gearing up for the ECB policy decision, that is scheduled on this Europe. Expectedly the Bank will keep its policy’s course in the same direction, while any comments regarding QE program and economic outlook adjustments will be able to shape up further EUR/USD pair’s trajectory. Also today the US economy will release fresh fundamentals, but reaction on it will be limited due to more important events, scheduled on this Thursday.

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Tuesday, May 2nd

The EUR/USD pair prolongs its positive trend since the beginning of this week, mainly being supported by ongoing talks about upcoming French election, that are scheduled on this weekend. According to the latest opinion E. Macron remains in the lead in the election race, gaining 60% of votes and outperforming his far-right opponent M.Le Pen, which managed to gain 40% of votes, respectively. Moreover, ongoing softness around the USD is also lending extra leg of support to the major currency pair lately. Nothing much is scheduled in data calendar for this Tuesday, so the pair will continue to trace global market sentiments ahead of this week's key risky events, such as FOMC meeting, NFP and second round of the French election.

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Wednesday, May 3rd

The EUR/USD pair came out of its consolidation range in early Europe, and now is losing positions, eyeing to retake its resistance at 1.0900. Pair’s sell-off could be mainly attributed to stalled US dollar’s retreat and its slight correction across the board. On the other hand, further pair’s downside remains unlikely, as investors are gearing up for one of the risky events of this week - FOMC decision, that is scheduled on NA afternoon. It is widely expected that the Regulator will keep status quo on its interest rate, while any remarks from FOMC members on further Fed’s monetary policy tightening will be able to shape up further greenback’s mid-term trajectory. Also traders are cheering up the euro ahead of the final vote of the French presidential election, where centrist Emmanuel Macron continues to stay as a clear favorite. Besides FOMC Statement, today the US economy will also release bloc of fundamental reports, including ADP jobs report and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, that will provide short-term directional impetus during NA session.


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Monday, May 8th

Today France continues to celebrate Emmanuel Macron’s win in the presidential election with 63.85% of votes against his far-right opponent Marine Le Pen, who gained 36.15% of votes, thereby supporting the Euro across the market. During his speech, Macron stated, that he will work to “rebuild links between Europe and its citizens”, that clearly shows his intentions regarding further cooperation with the EU. Today the EUR/USD pair opened with strong bullish gap above its psychological mark 1.1000, that is the highest level since November 2016. However, the pair failed to sustain its gains and dropped to the region of 1.0960, as Macron’s win in the election was highly expected and traders had already priced in such outcome. Today only secondary data releases are scheduled for this trading session, so the pair will continue to follow global market’s trend to set up its further direction.

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Wednesday, May 10th

Today the EUR/USD pair performed attempt to recover from its nearly 2-week lows, witnessed during last trading session, but faced strong resistance just a few pips before 1.09 level, consolidating its positions in 20-pips narrow range. However, the pair is remaining positive as of late, as slight weakness of the USD is capping it from further decline. On the other hand, prospects of June Fed rate hike, supported by upbeat US fundamentals and slew of hawkish Fedspeaks, delivered recently, continue to cheer up sentiments around the US dollar. Looking ahead, now immediate focus shifts on the ECB President M.Draghi’s speech, that is scheduled on European hours, while the rest of the session will remain relatively quiet, so global market’s sentiments will continue to build pair’s further direction during NY trade.

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Thursday, May 11th

The NZD/USD pair slumped to its 11-month lows, marked at 0.6818 in early Asian hours, following RBNZ decision to leave its official cash rate at its record low level of 1.75%. Furthermore, cautious speech of RNZB governor G.Wheeler also added some pressure on the Kiwi, where head of the Bank noted that interest rate could be increased only if inflation shows better growing pace, but adding that right now the Bank does not see any prospects of a further rapid move in inflation. However, the NZD/USD pair managed to recover some pips during the Asian trading session, as better risk-on sentiments and ongoing recovery of oil prices, fueled by bullish EIA inventory report, provided the pair with much needed relief. Now focus shifts on the US PPI report, that will be released in NA session, while the market will continue to digest recent crucial event, thereby adjusting further course for the pair.

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Friday, May 12th

The GBP/USD pair was showing deadly quiet trades in Asia after crucial events of last trading session. Today the pound is consolidating yesterday’s drop to its 5-day lows, marked at 1.2850, in wake of dovish outcome of the BoE meeting. As it was expected the Bank left its interest rate unchanged, however, it also signaled on the absence of an urgent need to raise rates. Additionally, in the accompanying quarterly inflation report the regulator lowered its GDP growth forecast and also revised down its inflation projections. However, the pair managed to bounce off its yesterday’s lows and consolidated its positions in 20-pips range around 1.2980 level, as US bulls took a breather ahead of another portion of fundamental releases from the US economy. Today absence of any macroeconomic data in UK docket will force traders to keep eyes on the block of US fundamentals to determine pair’s next directional move.

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Monday, May 15th

Today the EUR/USD pair continues to keep its bid tone, refreshing its weekly tops at 1.0947 mark, on the back of ongoing softness of the US dollar. Seems that market’s participants are still digesting Friday’s disappointing data bloc from the US economy, that has lowered prospects of Fed rate hike in June to 73.8%, thereby strongly weighing the greenback across the board. On the data front, nothing much is scheduled in the data calendar for this Monday, so the major currency pair will continue to follow global market’s sentiments and US dollar’s price actions to determine its further course.

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Tuesday, May 16th

The EUR/USD pair accelerated its upside traction in early Europe, keeping its bullish trend for the third consecutive session. Significant growth of the pair can be mainly attributed to ongoing broadly based US dollar’s softness, that was caused by fading chances of a June Fed rate hike, following a series of downbeat US economic data. However, the probability that the Fed will increase its rate on June meeting is still high, that is limiting further dollar’s decline. Currently chances that the Fed will take monetary policy tightening measures in June are approximately 74%, that is well above 60% which the Fed would like to see before increasing the rate. Now immediate focus shifts to the German ZEW Economic Sentiment report and block of macroeconomic indicators from Eurozone, while data scheduled in the US data calendar will also be able to bring some short-term opportunities to investors during NA session.

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