Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest from Forex.ee

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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee​

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Wednesday, May 17th

Having faced resistance in the area of 1.1120 level, the EUR/USD pair pulled back slightly, as bulls seems to be exhausted after 4-day northern rally. Today the pair refreshed its half-year tops at 1.1122 spot, which is the highest level since the US Presidential election, as ongoing sell-off of the greenback continues to navigate the market as of late. Moreover, recently the US currency came under renewed selling pressure after it became known, that US President D.Trump disclosed secret information to Russian diplomats, thereby providing additional support to the pair. On the data front, today the Eurozone will publish final CPI figures for the last month, while the US docket will release only secondary data reports, so the pair will keep following global market’s sentiments during the NA trading session to determine its further direction.

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Friday, May 19th

The EUR/USD pair broke out of its consolidation corridor in early Europe to the upside, as the greenback seems to have resumed its weekly downside after its recent moderate rebound. Yesterday the pair slightly corrected after its 4-day bullish rally and consolidated its brief retreat on the back of greenback’s attempt to recover its position across the market. Adding to the USD weakness, today investors are digesting latest headlines on D.Trump’s budget release, which is scheduled on next Tuesday and does not look very realistic in the opinion of the market. Nothing much is scheduled in data calendar for this Friday, so broad market’s sentiments, based on US dollar’s price dynamics, will continue to determine pair’s further direction.


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Monday, May 22nd

The EUR/USD pair extended its consolidation pattern of 15-pips into early Europe, however, remaining near lower bound of its trading corridor just below 1.1200 on the back of mild recovery of the dollar against its main competitors, witnessed this morning. Last week the greenback came under strong selling pressure amid political uncertainty in the US and decreasing prospects of June Fed rate hike. However, the probability that the Fed will take monetary policy tightening measures at its next meeting is back near 80%, thereby providing some relief to the US currency. Looking ahead, today the economic data calendar will remain silent, so US dollar’s price actions will continue to determine pair’s further steps.

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Tuesday, May 23rd

Today the GBP/USD pair once again came under influence of negative events that have triggered another wave of risk-aversion sentiments across the board. Today it became known that several explosions occurred in Manchester arena, UK, which have already been recognized as a terrorist attack. Soon after the tragedy the UK PM Theresa May made a statement that UK government will do everything to get full details of the Manchester explosions and also expressed her condolences to the families of the victims. Over the last hours, the pair was trading in south direction, as investors continue to digest recent events, keeping the pair under pressure below the level of 1.3000. However, ongoing weakness of the US dollar is limiting pair’s further downside. Moving on, now immediate focus shifts toward UK inflation report hearings, which will take place in the session ahead, while data from the US housing market will also bring some impact on the pair in the NA session.

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Wednesday, May 24th

Today the EUR/USD is consolidating its positions in 20-pips range in the area of 1.1180, after sharp reversal, seen in the last trading session. Yesterday the pair came under strong selling pressure, as the US dollar performed sharp correction against its main competitors on the back of rise in odds of a June Fed rate hike, which recently increased to 83.1% from 78%. However, further downside remains capped, as yesterday’s positive data from German economy and growing cautiousness ahead of big events are limiting pair’s chances on any sharp moves. Now immediate focus shifts on ECB President M.Draghi’s speech, which will be closely watched for any details on tapering of the QE program, while FOMC Meeting Minutes, due to be released later ahead, will be able to bring some hints regarding Fed’s monetary policy tightening measures on its upcoming meeting in June.

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Thursday, May 25th

The EUR/USD pair keeps its positive trend this Thursday, trading within striking distance of its daily highs, marked at 1.1242 spot, on the back of broad USD softness. Heaving taken a short breather in the second half of the Asian session, the pair continued its upside traction towards the level of 1.1250, as the greenback is suffering from cautious tone of FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday. The Committee was again unable to provide any details regarding its further actions, stressing that it needs little bit more fundamentals to make sure that recent pullback in the US economy was temporary. Thus, the Fed has put doubts on further aggressive monetary policy tightening measures, lowering probability of two more rate hikes in 2017 from 50% to 46%. Further today only secondary data reports will be released, which will have limited impact, so the pair will continue to follow global market’s trend to determine its further directional move.

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Monday, May 29th

The EUR/USD pair extends its consolidation phase, remaining within striking distance of its 5-day lows, marked last Friday. Today the pair continues to trade under negative pressure, as the US dollar remains well bid against its main rivals, following US President D.Trump’s tweets that “huge tax reforms” are coming along with the schedule. Adding to that, traders keep cautious tone ahead of ECB President M.Draghi speech, which is the only risky event for the pair. However, expectedly M.Draghi won’t offer any surprise to the market during his speech, once again reiterating that Eurozone’s economy remains on a steady recovery path, while expressing his concern over inflation’s growing pace. Besides Draghi’s speech, nothing important is scheduled in data calendar, while trading volumes will most likely remain thin, as most of major markets are closed today due to holidays today.


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Tuesday, May 30th

The EUR/USD pair extends its downside trend for the fourth session in a row, having dropped to its 7-day lows on the back of recent news of Greek debt troubles. Earlier, the German newspaper Bild reported on the possible intention of the Greek government not to pay the next payment if creditors do not ease its debt load. Thus, Greece actually put a new ultimatum to the creditors, which shows that if there is no any debt relief, there will be no payment for debt recovery either. Moreover, yesterday the market reacted quite negatively on uneventful ECB president M.Draghi’s speech, in which he once again stressed that Eurozone’s economy shows solid recovery, while inflation remains subdued. However, the pair managed to bounce off its recent lows in early Europe, as risk-off rally remains at its full swing lending some support to the common currency. Today EU calendar will provide the market with secondary data reports only, while the US will release CB Consumer Confidence, so further developments surrounding Greek situation will continue to navigate the pair this Tuesday.

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Wednesday, May 31st

The EUR/USD pair recovered a smile in early Europe on the back of broad dollar’s retreat, trying to retake the level of 1.1200. The pair broke out of its brief consolidation pattern, seen throughout Asia, and now is navigating in North direction, as US bulls seem have run out of steam in European morning. However, the pair will continue to stay under pressure this Wednesday, since ongoing Greece default concerns are still weighing the Euro. Looking ahead, today we have busy data session with German unemployment data, flash EU inflation report and US Pending Home Sales, which will set up pair’s further direction during this trading session.

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Friday, June 2nd

The EUR/USD pair extends its yesterday’s mildly bullish trend into the European session, as the greenback remains broadly subdued this Friday. Seems that US bulls took a breather after upbeat ADP employment data, while awaiting all-important US labor market report. In fact, positive ADP report, released yesterday, left doors opened for another positive surprise from today’s data, which in its turn could fuel broad market’s expectations of Fed monetary policy tightening at its next meeting in June. Looking ahead, nothing noteworthy is scheduled in the European docket, so traders will remain in anticipation for crucial data from the US labor market, which will be able to set up pair’s further directional move.

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