AceTraderFx Apr 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, NZD/USD

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AceTraderFx Feb 2: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2015 01:48GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite early gap-down opening to an intra-day low at 116.69 (Reuters) due to the decline in Nikkei-225 index following the sell off in global stock markets (Dow Jones index closed down 252 points or 1.45% to 17165), the greenback rebounded on short-covering in part due to the release of slightly better-than-expected Japan's manufacturing PMI which came in at 52.2 versus previous reading of 52.1.
Bids are now located at 117.20 and 117.10-05 with stops seen at 117.00.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 117.60-65 and more at 117.80.

Dlr gapped lower at NZ open to a 2-week low of 116.69 (Reuters) with some traders cited the initial sell off on downbeat China mfg & services PMIs released on Sun.

Reuters reported China's factory sector unexpectedly shrank for the first time in nearly 2-1/2 years in Jan n firms see more gloom ahead, an official survey showed, raising expectations that policymakers will take more action to forestall a sharper slowdown.

The official PMI fell to 49.8 in Jan, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sun, a low last seen in Sept 2012 n a whisker below the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.

The Dec level was 50.1, n a Reuters poll saw a better result, 50.2 for Jan. Only one of 11 economists in the poll predicted a Jan contraction. In addition, China's services PMI also fell to a 1-year low in Jan at 53.7 from Dec's reading of 54.1.

Data to be release this week:

Japan's Manufacturing PMI, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland's Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI, euro zone Manufacturing PMI, UK's Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI, U.S.'s PCE Price index, Personal consumption, Personal Spending, Markit Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Canada RBC Manufacturing PMI on Monday.

Australia Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Bulling Approvals, RBA rate decision and monetary policy statement, Switzerland's Trade Balance, UK's Markit/CIPS Construction PMI, Italy's CPI, euro zone Producer Prices, Canada Producer Prices, U.S> Redbook, Factory orders on Tuesday.

New Zealand's HLFS Job Growth, HLFS Unemployment rate, Labour Cost Index, China HSBC Service PMI, Italy's Markit/ADACI Service PMI, France's Markit Service PMI, Germany Markit Service PMI, euro zone's Markit Service PMI, Retail Sales, U.S. ADP National Employment, Markit Service PMI, ISM non-Manufacturing PMI, Canada Ivey PMI on Wednesday.

Australia's HIA New Home Sales, Retail Sales, Switzerland's Consumer Confidence, Germany's Industrial Orders, UK's BoE rate decision and QE Total, U.S.'s International Trade, Labour Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Canada Trade Balance, Exports, Imports on Thursday.

Japan's Coincident Indicator, Leading Indicator, Germany's Industrial Output, France Budget Balance, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Switzerland's Retail Sales, UK's trade Balance, U.S.'s Average Earnings, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payroll, Canada's Unemployment rate, Unemployment Change, Building Permits on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 4: Intra-Day News and Views (NZD/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Feb 2015 00:46GMT

NZD/USD - ...... Breaking news from Reuters, Reserve Bank of NZ governor says non-tradable inflation rate, Auckland housing market shaping rate thinking.
Comments from reserve bank of NZ governor quote as below:
RBNZ governor says trade weighted nz dollar level unjustified, unsustainable despite recent easing; significant further fall expected;
period of cash rate stability most prudent option;
inflation seen below target band, negative for a while, before rising more gradually to around 2 pct;
inflation outlook suggests rates on hold for some time;
would need confidence spare capacity, labour market generating substantial inflation lift before any rate rise;
rate cut might be appropriate if sufficient capacity to cope with extra demand;
deteriorating domestic demand from drought or worse external outlook may warrant rate cut;
nz economic prospects good, growth drivers sustainable;
main risks are china economy outlook; house, dairy, oil prices; nz dlr;
house price inflation appears rising in auckland;
monitoring impact on financial stability, wider economy;

Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand's HLFS Job Growth, HLFS Unemployment rate, Labour Cost Index, China HSBC Service PMI, Italy's Markit/ADACI Service PMI, France's Markit Service PMI, Germany Markit Service PMI, euro zone's Markit Service PMI, Retail Sales, U.K.'s BRC shop price index, Markit/CIPS Service PMI, U.S. ADP National Employment, Markit Service PMI, ISM non-Manufacturing PMI, Canada Ivey PMI.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 6: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Feb 2015 00:21GMT

USD/JPY - ...... A piece of Reuters news which came out ahead of Tokyo open worth noting. FinMin Taro Aso said on Friday Japan will tell next week's gathering of G20 finance chiefs that the country's economy is steadily improving and that Tokyo will continue with efforts on fiscal consolidation.

Speaking to reporters after a cabinet meeting, Aso reiterated that terrorist financing may be discussed at the G20 meeting in Istanbul, adding that Japan will pledge to continue humanitarian aid to countries coping with terrorism.
Aso said the G20 will debate issues including the global economy, growth strategies, investments, IMF reform, financial regulation and taxation.

Yesterday although the greenback rebounded after holding above Asian low at 117.03 and then briefly rose to 117.56 shortly after New York open, release of mixed U.S. eco. reports capped intra-day gain there so far n dlr retreated to 117.37.
Earlier in New York, U.S. released upbeat U.S. jobless claims data but a disappointing U.S. trade balance report.
The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending Jan 31 increased by 11K to 278K from the previous week's revised total of 267K.
Market had expected initial jobless claims to rise by 23K to 290K last week. In a separate report showed that the U.S. trade deficit widened to $46.56 bln in Dec from $39.75 bln in Nov, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated deficit of $39.00 bln. Market had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $38.00 bln in Dec.

Friday will see the release of Australia's RBA monetary policy statement, Japan's Coincident Indicator, Leading Indicator, Germany's Industrial Output, France Budget Balance, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Switzerland's Retail Sales, UK's trade Balance, U.S.'s Average Earnings, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payroll, Canada's Unemployment rate, Unemployment Change, Building Permits. Market holiday in New Zealand on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

11 Feb 2015 02:09GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback rallied to as high as 119.62 on Tuesday on improved risk appetite due to dlr's broad-based strength. However, profit-taking offers capped dlr's upside somewhat.
Bids are now tipped at 119.30 and more at 119.20-10.
On the upside, some offers are noted at 119.55-60.

Bloomberg news reported that Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Group of 20 nations didn't criticize his monetary policy or discuss the yen's weakening.
Kuroda said "the G-20 has confirmed that each central bank can use appropriate policy to fulfill its mandate for price stability and there is no change in that stance".
The comments reinforce the idea that Kuroda's record stimulus fits with positions such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew's point that G-20 counterparts shouldn't resort to currency devaluations to spur economic growth.
Lew said last week that Japan's policies resulting in a weaker yen don't qualify as "unfair."

In other news, Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker told reporters on Tuesday after a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina that "the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates in June on the basis of stronger U.S. data."
Besides, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said economic conditions are "getting closer" to the point where it made sense to think about starting to normalise policy.

Trading is expected to be thin in Asia due to Japan's holiday today.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 13: Intra-Day News and Views (AUD/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Feb 2015 01:06GMT

AUD/USD - ..... Reuters news are quoting comments by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens & Assistant Governor Christopher Kent.
Kent says "there is some range of uncertainty around that forecast".

Stevens says : "- enough spare capacity in economy that could grow above trend for couple of years;
-Australia business has significant lack of confidence, risks talking itself into gloom" and forecast is that unemployment will peak around 6.4%;
-is some range of uncertainty around that forecast and unemployment has been edging up, to keep happening for little while yet.
He continues his testimony before the parliament, quote:
- economy growing at below trend pace
- inflation is low and appears likely to remain so
- further fall in a$ likely to occur
- commodity prices have fallen quite sharply in some cases
- monetary policy still has capacity to give additional support to economy
- fall in key export commodities hurting Australia's terms of trade
- mining downswing will accelerate this year
- bank's forecasts assume lower path for interest rates, but is not a commitment to action
- domestic demand outside mining mixed
- public sector spending still fairly subdued
- working with other regulators on managing potential risks from rise in housing investment
- developments in Sydney housing market remain concerning; not alarming elsewhere
- unwise to react too strongly to one unemployment number
- unemployment has been edging up, to keep happening for little while yet
- unemployment remains low by historical standards

Friday will see the release of China CB Leading Economic Index, France's GDP, Non-Farm Payrolls, Germany GDP, WPI, Switzerland's Producer/Import Price, Italy's GDP, euro zone's Trade Balance, GDP, Canada's Manufacturing Sales, U.S.'s Export Prices, Import Prices, and University of Michigan Sentiment.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 16: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2015 00:24GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Breaking news from Reuters, Japan ECONMIN Amari comments, quote:
GDP deflator shows favourable situation towards beating deflation;
expect firm private demand - led economic recovery ahead;
hope wage hikes will materialise this year;
Q4 GDP growth due to private consumption backed by improving job market, exports to US and China.

Japan's economy grew an annualised 2.2% in Oct-Dec to emerge from a recession triggered by last year's sales tax hike, boding well for premier Shinzo Abe's efforts to beat back decades of stagnation.
But the expansion was smaller than a 3.7% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, suggesting a fragile recovery for the world's third-largest economy as consumer mood remained soft and uneven global growth weighed on exports.

Amari further says, quote:
real wages increases and consumer sentiment key to private consumption ahead;
real wages turned positive in December and consumer sentiment improved; improvement in consumer sentiment gives reason to be positive about future; delay in second sales tax hike was one factor behind improvement in consumer sentiment in Dec;
agreement by some firms to increase wages also helped consumer sentiment.

Data to be release this week:

New Zealand's Retail Sales, Japan's GDP, Capacity Utilization index, Industrial Output, U.K.'s Rightmove House Price, euro zone's Trade Balance on Monday. Markets in U.S. will be closed due to President's Day Holiday.

Australia's RBA Meeting Minutes, China's House Prices, Italy's Trade Balance, U.K.'s CPI, PPI, RPI, Germany's Zew reports, U.S.'s Redbook, NAHB Housing Markets, Net L-T Flows, Overall Capital Flows on Tuesday.

Australia's CB Leading Indicator, Westpac Leading Index, Japan's BoJ rate decision and press conference, U.K.'s Average Earnings, Claimant Count, ILO Unemployment Rate, BoE's MPC vote outcome, BoE's meeting minutes, Switzerland's ZEW Investor Sentiment, Canada's Wholesale Trade, U.S.'s Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Output, Capacity Utilization and Fed FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Market in China will be closed due to Chinese New Year Holiday.

Japan's Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Switzerland's Trade Balance, France's CPI, euro zone's Current Accounts, Consumer Confidence, U.K.'s CBI Trends, U.S.'s Leading Index Change, Intiail Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday.

Japan's Reuters Tankan DI, Germany's Producer Prices, Markit's Manufacturing Index and Service Index for Germany, Italy and euro zone, Italy's Industrial Orders, CPI, U.K.'s PSNB, PSNCR, Retails Sales, Canada's Retail Sales on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 18: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Feb 2015 02:11GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Despite yesterday's brief drop to 118.24 in Asia, active short-covering above Monday's low at 118.20 lifted the pair. U.S. dollar ratcheted higher on renewed cross selling in jpy due to improved risk appetite amid speculation Greece will resolve its stand off with creditors.
The pair rose to as high as 119.41 in late NY before easing.
Bids are now located at 119.05-00 n more at 118.80-70.
Trading is thin ahead of a Bank of Japan policy decision.

A piece of news report ahead of BoJ monetary policy announcement worth noting. Reuters reported the BoJ is set to maintain its massive asset buying stimulus spree on Wed n revise up its view on output, even as data showing only a feeble recovery fm recession tempers its optimism.

A much-awaited rebound in exports has offered some hope for BOJ policymakers, who prefer to hold off on expanding stimulus for now even as falling oil prices push inflation further away from its 2% target. Data on Mon confirmed the economy pulled out of recession in the 4th-quarter last year but annualised growth of 2.2% was much weaker than expected, underscoring the lingering impact fm a sales tax hike last Apr.

Still, the BOJ is likely to stick to its view that the economy is recovering moderately, and on track to hit 2% inflation next fiscal year as companies raise wages and spending. With industrial production up 1.0% in Dec n exports having risen the most in a year, the central bank is also seen revising up its view on output and exports, said sources familiar with its thinking.

At Wed's meeting, the BOJ is widely expected to maintain its stimulus programme that pledges to print money at an annual pace of 80 tln yen ($675 bln). Markets are focusing on how Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will respond to criticism, mainly fm opposition lawmakers, that his radical stimulus is spurring excessive yen falls that hurt consumer sentiment by driving up import costs.

With the BOJ's massive bond purchases drying up liquidity and heightening volatility in the bond market, many within the BOJ hope to keep policy steady for now. Advisers to PM Shinzo Abe back the BOJ's wait-and-see stance, worried that more easing could send the yen to damagingly low levels.

Kuroda has been unwavering in his view that a weak yen is good for the economy, n so will reiterate that the BOJ will do whatever it takes to hit 2% inflation, analysts say.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Australia's CB Leading Indicator, Westpac Leading Index, Japan's BoJ rate decision and press conference, U.K.'s Average Earnings, Claimant Count, ILO Unemployment Rate, BoE's MPC vote outcome, BoE's meeting minutes, Switzerland's ZEW Investor Sentiment, Canada's Wholesale Trade, U.S.'s Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Output, Capacity Utilization and Fed FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Market in China will be closed due to Chinese New Year Holiday.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Feb 2015 07:11GMT

USD/JPY - BOJ gov Kuroda holds news conference and says, quote:
"positive economic cycle remains intact;
Japan economy continues to recovery moderately as a trend;
exports will continue moderate recovery due to global economy, weak yen.
BOJ will examine both upside, downside risks to economy and prices, and adjust policy as appropriate; also, examine both upside, downside risks to economy and prices, and adjust policy as appropriate;
positive economic cycle remains intact; Japan economy continues to recover moderately as a trend;
exports will continue moderate recovery due to global economy, weak yen; industrial output will continue moderate growth ahead;
inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole from long-term perspective;
Japan economy to continue moderate recovery trend; consumer inflation likely to reach 2 pct in period centering on fiscal 2015/16;
BOJ's QQE has been exerting its intended effects & continue with QQE for as long as necessary to achieve 2 pct inflation stably;
BOJ will examine both upside, downside risks to economy and prices, and adjust policy as appropriate.
there was no debate at policy meeting about cutting interest rate paid on excess reserves parked at central bank;
environment is in place for increase in workers' base pay, bonuses;
downward pressure from impact of sales tax hike has subsided;
currencies move on various factors so cannot say monetary easing will immediately cause weak currency;
central banks' response to global disinflation trend will contribute to price stability;
no comment on FX levels or pace; monetary policy not targeting currencies; recent long-term rate moves are an adjustment in market; see no big problems now in bond market liquidity.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 23: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Feb 2015 00:32GMT

USD/JPY - ...... More on earlier release of BoJ minutes. Reuters reported 3 members of the BoJ's policy board expressed doubts the BOJ can meet its inflation target because of a slowdown in underlying inflation and falling oil prices, minutes of the bank's January monetary policy meeting showed.

One of the three members said that even though the yen is weak, annual inflation excluding food and energy is only slightly above zero, according to minutes published on Monday.
Another of the three members said the collapse in oil prices from last year has slowed inflationary momentum.

In a quarterly review of its long-term forecasts in January, the BOJ cut its core consumer inflation projection to 1.0% from an estimate 1.7% issued 3 months ago, largely due to the global oil price slump.

BOJ January meeting minutes showed members agreed to share common forecast for oil prices as oil price swings could have big impact on CPI;
many members saw no change to long-term price trend;
many members said high chance of meeting inflation target around FY 2015 assuming gradual increase in oil prices.

Data to be released this week :

Japan BoJ minutes, China market holiday, Germany Ifo business climate,current conditions, expectations, UK CBI trades and U.S. existing home sales on Monday.

China market holiday, New Zealand RBNZ inflation expectation, Germany GDP, France business climate, UK BBA mortgage approvals, EU inflation, U.S. Caseshiller and consumer confidence, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.

Australia Wage price, China manufacturing PMI, Italy trade balance and U.S. new home sales on Wednesday.

New Zealand exports, imports, trade balance, Australia capex, Germany consumer sentiment, unemployment rate, France consumer confidence, U.K.GDP, Italy retail sales, business confidence, consumer confidence, EU services sentiment, business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, Canada inflation, U.S. inflation, jobless claims, durable goods and monthly home price on Thursday.

Japan inflation, unemployment rate, retail sales, industrial output, housing starts, construction orders, UK consumer confidence, France producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy CPI, Germany CPI, U.S. Chicago PMI and pending home sales on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 24: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Feb 2015 02:14GMT

USD/JPY - ....... The greenback briefly rebound to 119.35 on Monday, however, active cross buying in yen knocked price lower in New York.
Offers are now tipped at 119.15/20 and more at 119.30-40.
On the downside, some bids are located at 118.80 and more at 118.70-65 with stops only seen below 118.50.

On the data front, U.S. existing home sales, released on Monday, declined 4.9 percent to an annual rate of 4.82 million units, the lowest level since last April. U.S. home resales fell sharply to their lowest level in nine months in January amid a shortage of properties on the market.

Although Nikkei-225 index retreated briefly in Tokyo morning, it pared early losses and currently rose by 17 points to 18484, prompting some investors to buy usd/jpy.
Earlier Japan ECONMIN Amari says Japan-US TPP talks are behind schedule.

Yesterday although the greenback met selling interest at Asian open and retreated to 118.88 in Asia, price pared its losses and rose to intra-day high at 119.35 in early European morning.
However, renewed selling there capped gains and price fell to session low at 118.82 in NY as investors remain cautious ahead of Fed Yellen's testimony on Tuesday.

Data to be released on Tuesday:

China market holiday, New Zealand RBNZ inflation expectation, Germany GDP, France business climate, UK BBA mortgage approvals, EU inflation, U.S. Caseshiller and consumer confidence, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee.