AceTraderFx Apr 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, NZD/USD

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Dec 17: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Dec 2014 01:50GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Reuters reported earlier Japan's exports grew for a 3rd straight month in November from a year earlier, but much more slowly than expected and despite a sharp fall in the yen as slowing demand in Asia & Europe dampened trade.

The 4.9% rise in exports was much weaker than a 7.0% gain seen by economists in a Reuters poll, slowing from a 9.6% gain in October, MoF data showed.
Weakness in exports could compound April's sales tax rise which pushed the economy into a recessionary 2nd quarter of contraction through September.

The data followed the BoJ's key tankan survey, which showed business confidence barely improved in the 4th quarter, suggesting a slow climb out of recession despite gains in share prices and a steep fall in the yen.
The BOJ is expected to stand pat at a monetary policy meeting on Friday.

Export volume fell 1.7% in the year to November, the first annual drop in 3 months. Japanese shipments have struggled to pick up because companies have moved much of their production overseas, limiting gains from a weak currency.

At yesterday NY opening, despite dlr's intra-day volatile swing after early sell off to a fresh near 1-month trough at 115.58 in Europe, price rebound after meeting renewed buying interest at 116.01 in the NY morning and then continued to edge higher after release of higher-than-expected U.S. Markit mfg PMI.

A report from Markit showed the U.S. mfg sector continued to expand in December, but growth rate hit an 11-mth low.
Markit said its preliminarily U.S. Mfg PMI index fell to 53.7 in December from November's 54.8, matching the 2014 January low when severe weather impacted economic activity. Market expected the reading to be 55.2.


Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand's Current Account, Japan's Trade Balance, exports, imports, Switzeland's SNB's Quarterly Bulletin, ZEW Investor Sentiment, UK's BoE Meeting Minutes and MPC Vote Outcome, Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment, Eurozone's Inflation data, Labour Costs, Canada's Wholesale trade, U.S.'s CPI, Current Account, FOMC Rate Decision

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Dec 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Dec 2014

USD/JPY ......Earlier, the recent announcement of a major overhaul in Japan's GPIF pushed the Nikkei to a 7-year high of 18030 Dec.
A piece of news from WSJ worth noting. The WSJ reported Japan's $1.1 tln GPIF should be managed by a board of directors rather than a president, as is currently the case, a panel of outside experts has concluded.
At the urging of PM Shinzo Abe, the GPIF has changed its investment philosophy, becoming more sophisticated and aggressive.
It has hired a new chief investment officer, n said in Oct that it would drastically reallocate its conservative portfolio. Mr. Abe has made overhauling the GPIF a key goal as part of his efforts to putting Japan back on a path to long-term growth. Now the task is to revamp its management structure.

The panel held its sixth n final meeting Wed, but despite 12 hours of debate in the past couple of months remained divided on issues such as whether the chief executive officer should sit on the board.
Perhaps it shouldn't come as a surprise that the group has differed on some issues.
Welfare Minister Yasuhisa Shiozaki, an Abe appointee n a staunch advocate of an aggressive overhaul of the fund's management, pushed hard for the group to be formed, n some of its members have expressed views similar to his.
But bureaucrats at the health ministry, which oversees the GPIF, argued that the group should include more cautious voices. The group will present its ideas to the health ministry panel for further discussion, n eventually the ministry will draft a law to submit to parliament.

This morning the greenback rallied against the Japanese yen on Wednesday after the widely expected comments fm Fed's Chair Janet Yellen who altered a pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a "considerable time" but signalled it was on track to raise interest rates next year.
However, the Fed's statement showed it was unlikely to hike rates for "at least a couple of meetings," meaning April of next year at the earliest.
U.S. dollar rose to 118.90 near New York close n then extended the rally to 119.01 in Tokyo morning due to the more than 400 points or 2% rise in Nikkei-225 index, however, profit-taking at 119.00 level capped dlr's upside somewhat n price retreated briefly to around 118.57.

 

[RahmanSL]

Nice report Acetraderfx ...........so, "bearish" or "bullish" for USD/JPY for rest of week and next week?

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Dec 19: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Dec 2014 01:57GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Despite Thursday's brief but strong retreat from 119.01 (Tokyo) to 118.26 in European morning on profit-taking, renewed buying quickly emerged n the pair rallied to an intra-day high of 119.36 due to the rally in global stock markets b4 retreating to 118.58.

Bids are now reported at 118.80, 118.60 and further out at 118.40-30. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 119.10-20 and 119.40.

Trading is relatively thin in Asia today as investors are waiting for BOJ rate decision and the press conference by BOJ's governor Kuroda later today.

Statement from Japan's FINMIN Aso, quote:
'expects Russian gov't will prevent rouble falls fm leading to turmoil seen in 1998;
oil prices are falling but still at high levels.'

Statement from Japan's ECONMIN Akira Amari, quote:
-weak yen has benefited exporters but high import costs have hurt household;
-falling oil prices a positive for economy but make sure we escape deflation.


Friday will see the release of New Zealand's NBNZ Business Outlook, Japan leading economic index, BoJ rate decision, BoJ monetary policy statement and BoJ Governor Kuroda's press conference, Germany's Gfk Consumer confidence, Gfk Consumer Sentiment, Producer Prices, France's Business Climate, Eurozone's Current Accounts, Italy's Industrial Sales, U.K.'s Gfk Consumer Confidence, PSNCR, PSNB, CBI Distributive Trades, Canada's CPI and Retail Sales.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Dec 30: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Dec 2014 06:01GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite yesterday's rise to 120.72 in NY session due to renewed broad-based strength in the greenback, the pair relinquished Monday's gain as intra-day decline in the Nikkie (N225 closed at the day's low at 17450 n down by 279 points) plus fall in Asian stocks has damped risk sentiment, the closure of Japanese financial markets from Wednesday to Friday is also a contributory factor, suggesting dlr would close below December's 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 on Wednesday.

Offers are tipped at 120.50/60 and more above with some stops above 120.85. On the downside, some bids are noted at 120.20-00 area with stops touted below there, suggesting sideways trading would continue in European session.

Earlier more on the proposed tax cuts in Japan. Reuters reported Japan's ruling coalition has approved a tax reform plan that will cut the corporate tax rate from Apr and pledge further reductions in coming years in a bid by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to boost profitability and bolster economic growth.

The pledge contained in a draft of the tax reform plan reviewed by Reuters on Tuesday would cut the overall effective corporate tax rate by 2.51 percentage points to 32.1%.

The plan was set to be approved by Abe's LDP n coalition partner Komeito, early on Tuesday afternoon. The cabinet is expected to approve it in early January.
Abe hopes the tax cut will encourage companies to raise wages, which in turn should spur consumer spending.

The effective corporate tax rate is 34.6% for big firms based in Tokyo, among the highest in the major economies. The average corporate tax rate stands around 25% among OECD economies.
Abe and his ruling coaling won a majority in snap elections this month, giving him a fresh mandate to push through his "Abenomics" stimulus policies. The economy unexpectedly slipped into recession this year after an increase in the national sales tax in April hit consumer spending much harder than expected.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Dec 31: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Dec 2014 01:58GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback fell sharply to as low as 118.87 on Tuesday on renewed risk aversion due to the sell off in Nikkei-225 index together with the decline in crude oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery slid as much as 91 cents to $52.70 a barrel in New York, the lowest since May 2009, before trading at $53.70.
Offers are now tipped at 119.50-60 and more at 119.80 whilst some bids are located at 119.10-00 with stops building up below 118.80.

The BOJ said in a statement on Tuesday that it will buy at least 1.25 trillion yen of debt due in more than 10 years per month, up from a minimum target of 650 billion yen. The statement also showed BOJ will continue to purchase between 8 trillion yen to 12 trillion yen of government securities in total each month.

Yesterday the greenback has finally gained some respite after intra-day sell off to as low as 118.87 on yen's broad-based strength due to safe-haven demand fuelled by tumbling oil prices. Dlr pared its losses and recovered to 119.49 at NY midday before retreating again.

Order book remained thin ahead of New Year holiday coming up with some offers seen at 119.45/50 and more above at 119.60/70 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids was noted at 118.80/90.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Japan market holiday, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, U.S. jobless claims, Chicago PMI and pending home sales.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Jan 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

02 Jan 2015 02:24GMT

USD/JPY - ....... The greenback ratcheted higher on renewed risk appetite in Asian morning on the 1st trading day of 2015 today.
Crude oil prices rose earlier to $55.11 per barrel on news of a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. crude inventory and a fire at a major U.S. supply facility.

Intra-day rise gathered momentum after penetrating the psychological res at 120.00.
Bids are now located at 120.10-00 and more at 119.80.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 120.45/50 and more at 120.80.

A piece of Reuters news yen-bearish which came on on Thursday worth noting. BoJ Gov Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank has various tools left if it were to ease monetary policy again, stressing its determination to hit its inflation target in the next fiscal year.

"There are plenty of ways to adjust monetary policy," Kuroda said in an interview with the Mainichi daily that ran on Thur, reiterating that the BOJ was ready to expand stimulus again if needed to meet its 2% price target.
He added "If the BOJ loosens its commitment just because it's difficult to achieve the price target, that in itself will make it impossible to meet the price target."

Kuroda has voiced confidence that Japan will see inflation hit 2% as targeted in 2015. But many analysts, and even some within the BOJ board, are sceptical as slumping oil prices have recently slowed consumer inflation to below 1%.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Jan 6: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

06 Jan 2015 02:19GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Despite dlr's resumption of yesterday's sell off to an intra-day low of 119.16 in Asian morning due to active risk aversion on the sharp sell off in Nikkei-225 index (currently fell below 17000 level by 416 points to 16995) following the 331 points decline in Dow Jones index, short-covering briefly lifted the pair.
However, renewed selling interest is tipped at 119.45-50 and more at 119.70. On the downside, mixture of bids n stops is located at 119.00.

More on Reuters news, China Dec HSBC services PMI hits 3-month high of 53.4 (previous reading was 53.0).
It reported China's services sector grew at its fastest pace in 3 months in December as new orders remained strong, a private survey showed, an encouraging sign of strength even as manufacturing activity slows and the property market softens.

After a rough 2014, the world's second-largest economy looks set to start the new year on a weak note, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will roll out more stimulus to avert a sharper slowdown which could trigger job losses and debt defaults.

The property slump is expected to last well into 2015, companies will continue to struggle to pay off debt and export demand may remain erratic, leaving only the services sector as the lone bright spot in the economy.
Japan's Markit services PMI for Dec came in at 51.7 vs previous reading of 50.6. Dollar shows muted reaction to the eco. release.

Yesterday, the greenback has finally gained some respite after intra-day sell off to 119.43 in NY morning. The Japanese yen has gained broadly across the board, due partly to risk aversion triggered by the possible exit of Greece from Eurozone. Earlier on, despite a brief rebound from 119.98 to 120.65 in Asia, price tumbled to said low in NY before recovering to 119.62.

Tuesday will see the release of Australia exports, imports, trade balance, Japan service PMI, China services PMI, France consumer confidence, services PMI, Italy services PMI, Germany services PMI, Eurozone service PMI, UK services PMI, Canada producer prices, U.S. durable goods, factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and services PMI

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Jan 7: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Jan 2015 02:20GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Despite yesterday's sell off to as low as 118.04 in New York, the greenback rebounded to 119.15 in Asian morning on short-covering due to the bounce in Nikkei-225 index which turned into +ve territory and rose by 71 points to 16955, however, dlr's upside is likely to be ltd as offers are tipped at 119.30-40.
On the downside, bids are noted at 118.80 n 118.60-50.

Global stock markets tumbled yesterday as crude oil plunged yesterday and is down about 10 percent this year. U.S. stocks dropped after data showed the nation's services industry expanded at the slowest pace in six months. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index fell to 56.2, below economists' forecast of 58.

The single currency tumbled to a fresh near 9-year low at 1.1850 (Reuters) in Australian morning due to speculation that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will begin quantitative easing as early as this month to combat the risk of deflation.

Germany will release its retail sales n unemployment rate at 07:00GMT n 08:55GMT respectively. But most importantly, market players are focusing on the release of eurozone inflation data at 10:00GMT as consumer prices in the euro area probably fell for the first time in more than five years last month as economists expected the prices to drop an annual 0.1 percent in December.

In other news, Bloomberg reported that ECB officials are working on a plan to buy government bonds as they strive to prevent a deflationary spiral of falling prices and households postponing spending and they may use a gathering tomorrow to weigh options for a quantitative-easing program that may be announced at their Jan. 22 policy meeting.


Wednesday will see the release of U.K. BRC shop price index, Halifax house price, Germany unemployment rate, Italy unemployment rate, EU inflation, unemployment rate, Canada exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. ADP employment, international trade and FOMC minutes.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Jan 8: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Jan 2015 02:09GMT

USD/JPY - 119.63 ..... The greenback rebounded against the Japanese yen on short-covering due to the rally in Nikkei-225 index which rose by 1.52% or 257 points to 17142. The pair penetrated yesterday's NY rise at 119.65 and rose briefly to 119.71 in Tokyo morning.
Bids are now located 119.40 and 119.20 whilst offers are tipped at 119.80-85 and more at 120.00 level.

The ADP Research Institute reported yesterday that companies in the U.S. added 241,000 workers in December, more than the 225,000 expected by economists.

Yesterday despite the greenback's early pullback to 118.70 in European morning, renewed buying emerged there and lifted the price higher ahead of NY open. Intra-day ascent accelerated after the release of upbeat ADP employment report n the pair rose to 119.65 in NY morning before stabilizing.

Thursday will see the release of Australia building approvals, Germany industrial orders, EU producer prices, retail sales, UK BoE rate decision, U.S. jobless claims and Canada new housing price.