AceTraderFx Apr 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, NZD/USD

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AceTraderFx Nov 11: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

11 Nov 2014 02:08GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr pares intra-day gain after an initial brief rise to 115.01 but offers at 115.00/10 capped upside and pushed price back down to 113.64.

Although dlr showed muted reaction to a sharply higher trade surplus (September surplus was 963 bln yen vs forecast of 534 bln, this represents a near 62% jump vs the same period in 2013) as yesterday's another record closings in the Dow & S&P 500 boosted risk sentiment, prompting another round of yen selling but 115.00 res seems to a tough nut to crack.

Looks like range trading is in store n teh strong bounce from yesterday's 113.86 low in Europe suggests consolidation with upside bias remains. Offers are reported at 115.00/10 with stops above there, more selling interest is noted below Friday's 7-year peak at 115.62.
On the downside, bids are noted at 114.60 and more at 114.45/40 and more below with stops touted below 113.80.

Earlier Japanese PM Shinzo Abe's approval rating fell in a public opinion poll published on Mon amid speculation the gov't is considering calling a snap election.
National broadcaster NHK surveyed 1,527 people and found support for Abe's gov't had fallen 8 percentage points from last month to 44%, the lowest since Abe's gov't began 2 years ago.
Of those surveyed, 38% said they disapproved of Abe, up 4 percentage points from last month.

Abe's popularity has been sliding since 2 members of his cabinet resigned last month over political scandals. Abe also has to decide before the end of the year whether to raise the sales tax next year and some media are reporting that he could delay this plan and call an election.

Tuesday will see the release of Japan trade balance, current account, tertiary industry index, Australia home price index, NAB business confidence. France, Canada and U.S. markets will be closed on Tuesday due to holiday.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 12: Intra-Day News and Views (NZD/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

12 Nov 2014

NZD/USD - ...... Statement from RBNZ, quote:
not appropriate to ease LVR lending limits;
risk of house inflation pick-up from strong immigration;
NZ dlr above sustainable, justified level;
NZ dlr may fall further on tighter u.s. policy, China slowdown;
dairy payout fall may see more loan defaults;
further rises in short-term rates may be needed in future years;
says risk of sharp china slowdown will hurt NZ, AU economies.
will likely ease LVR limits, rather than removing them;
LVR limits still meant to be temporary, not permanent;
NZ dlr still unjustified, unsustainable;
exchange rate still has 'further to go';
extent of further NZ dlr fall may depend on U.S. dlr.
pleased that NZ dlr has come down 12 pct vs U.S. dlr;
neutral rates still seen around 4.5 pct;
interest rates still at a low level, still expansionary.

Wednesday will sell the release of Australia Wage price index, UK average earnings, claimant count, ILO unemployment, BoE inflation report, EU industrial production, U.S. redbook retail sales, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 13: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

13 Nov 2014 02:18GMT

USD/JPY - ...... After taking centre stage by swinging wildly in Asia, European & NY sessions on Wednesday, the greenback has moved narrowly in relatively subdued Tokyo morning trading as the absence of market-moving comments by Japanese official(s) has kept price moving sideways.

Dlr showed muted reaction to early release of Japan's machinery orders which showed an unexpected rise of 2.9% in September vs forecast of a drop of 1.9%. However, for those who like to trade on comments/news, keep an eye on breaking news from Reuters/Bloomberg when BoJ Governor Kuroda appears before the Japanese parliament at 04:40GMT.

Despite yesterday's brief drop to 114.85 (Reuters) in NY morning, subsequent strong bounce in NY afternoon on renewed dlr's broad-based strength suggests consolidation with mild upside bias is in store, however, as the Nikkei is trading well below yesterday's fresh 7-year peak at 17443 (currently at 17225), range trading should continue.
Offers are noted at 115.70/75 n more above with stops reported above 116.10. Initial bids are noted at 115.40-30 n more below with stops building below 114.80.

Japan Chief Gov't spokesman: decline to comment on some views that next sales tax hike should be delayed by a year and a half. To hike or not to hike (sales tax), Japanese officials have kept the market guessing.

The WSJ reported Japan's PM Shinzo Abe will likely decide next week to postpone an unpopular sales-tax increase, judging that the country's economy is too weak to withstand the burden, n call a general election to seek public support for his economic program, a top Abe administration official said on Wednesday.

Abe's aides are preparing for an election campaign next month that will stress growth over fiscal austerity, weighing the likelihood that data due next Mon will show growth in the Jul-to-Sep quarter was below 2% on an annualized basis, the gov't official said. "We want to seek a mandate to push ahead with Abenomics, with the growth policy," said the official, adding that any election would likely come on Dec. 14 or Dec. 21.

Abe has said he would decide on the sales-tax increase in Dec after considering Jul-to-Sep GDP figures, suggesting he would wait until a revision to the GDP data is released Dec. 8. On Tue, he reiterated that view n said he hasn't "decided on the timing" of an election.

The official said the PM's aides were preparing an election platform that, in addition to delaying the sales-tax rise, would call for a greater cut in corporate taxes than Abe has pledged so far.

Amamiya says 'BoJ's current QQE programme is open-ended, not deadline set; BoJ won't hold off on taking steps to hit its price target just because of worries over risks of hurting its balance sheet;
see no need to worry about risk of triggering hyper-inflation with BoJ's policy, which aimed at achieving 2 pct inflation.'

Thursday will see the release of Japan CGPI, machinery orders, industrial output, capacity utilization, China industrial output, retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss PPI, Italy CPI, Canada housing price index, U.S. jobless claims and Federal budget.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 14: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

14 Nov 2014 01:32GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The pair continues to take centre stage in hectic Tokyo trading as comments by Japan's ECONMIN Amari (see early MMN) led to renewed broad-based selling in the yen, intra-day gain to fresh 7-year highs in the Nikkei (N255 index rose to 17520) boosted risk sentiment and pushed price to a fresh 7-year peak at 116.20 after tripping stops above 115.90, then 116.10.

However, intra-day retreat in the Nikkei has prompted liquidation in speculative longs, dlr retreated to 115.89, suggesting choppy trading below 116.20 would be seen.
Initial bids are noted at 115.90-85 with stops below there, more buying interest is reported at 115.60-55 with stops below yesterday's NY low at 115.21.
On the upside, offers are reported at 116.10/20 and more at 116.40/50.

Statement from Japan's Chief Gov't Spokesman Yoshihide Suga (Chief Cabinet Sec) says Japan economy in recovery trend through gov't's economic policies.

While Japan FinMin Aso comment:
economy continuing a moderate recovery on the whole;
gov't must continue with efforts on fiscal reform;
private consumption stalling but employment, incomes investment improving; it would be become hard to halve primary budget deficit in FY2015/16 as planned if sales tax hike delayed.'
Japan sales tax hike is delayed, gov't may need to consider if economic stimulus steps are needed;
rising sales tax and delaying sales tax hike both carry risks, up to gov't to take steps to reduce these risks;
if Abe delays sales tax hike, he will do utmost to achieve primary budget deficit reduction targets;
not possible Abe to delay sales tax hike indefinitely; cannot allow trust in Japanese gov't debt to be damaged.'


Friday will see the release of France GDP, Germany GDP, Italy GDP, UK construction output, EU GDP, CPI, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, business inventories, U. of Michigan sentiment and Canada manufacturing sales.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 17: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

17 Nov 2014 01:45GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite a brief jump above Fri's 116.82 top to a fresh 7-year high of 117.06 after Japan's Q3 GDP unexpectedly contracted, intra-day sell off in the Nikkei (N225 fell from 17409 to 17133) triggered broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion in Asia.

Reuters reported Japan's economy unexpectedly slipped into recession in Q3, setting the stage for PM Shinzo Abe to delay an unpopular sales tax hike n call a snap election just 2 years after he took office.

GDP fell at an annualised 1.6% pace in July-September period, after it plunged 7.3% in the 2nd quarter following a rise in the national sales tax.
The economy had been forecast to rebound by 2.1% in the 3rd quarter.

Abe had said he would look at the data when deciding whether to press ahead with a 2nd increase in the sales tax to 10% in October next year, as part of a plan to curb Japan's huge public debt, the worst among advanced nations.

Japanese media have said the PM, who returns from a week-long tour to China, Myanmar and Australia on Monday, could announce his decision to delay the hike as early as Tuesday and states his intention to call a poll, which ruling party lawmakers expect to be held on Dec. 14.

Etsuro Honda, an economic adviser to Abe who opposes the tax rise, has said that if growth was under 3.8%, raising the tax rate would be "out of the question".


This week will see the release of the following economic data:

New Zealand retail sales, Japan's GDP, U.K. Rightmove house price, EU eurostat trade, U.S. New York Empire state manufacutring, ECB Draghi's speech, U. S. industrial production on Monday;

Australia's CB leading indicator, Westpac leading index and RBA meeting minutes, China house prices, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. PPI, Redbook, NAHB housing market index, net L-T flows, overall net capital flows and foreign buys on Tuesday;

BoJ interest rate decision, EU current account, BoE MPC Vote outcome, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. building permits, housing starts, FOMC minutes on Wednesday;

Japan's export, imports, trade balance and manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, BoJ monthly economic survey, Germany's producer prices ad Markit service PMI, EU Markit PMI, U.K. retail sales, CBI trade, Canada's wholesale trade, U.S. CPI, Markit manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales, leading index change and consumer confidence on Thursday;

U.K. PSNCR and Canada CPI on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 19: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

19 Nov 2014 01:28GMT
USD/JPY - ........ Dlr swung wildly on Tuesday following Japan PM Abe said to dissolve parliament and postpone next year's sales tax hike.
Despite a brief sell off but sharp sell off from 117.05 to 116.35 after the announcement, speculation for new stimulus measures from BoJ after 2-day meeting on Wednesday pushed price higher in NY and dlr eventually rose to a fresh 7-year peak at 117.21 in Tokyo morning b4 retreating.

Today's focus in Asia will be on the BoJ's monetary policy announcement n then the conference in Asian midday.
BOJ board may call for a bleaker view to be given this time, however, any signs that Kuroda's conviction about the recovery is wavering may spur speculation of more easing early next year.

As dlr has resumed its recent strong ascent in Asia, buying on dips is recommended.
Bids are noted at 116.80-70 with mixture of bids and stops located at 116.55/50 and 116.25/20.
On the upside, offers are placed at 117.20-30 and further out at 117.50-60 with stops emerging above 117.80.


Wednesday will see the release of BoJ interest rate decision, EU current account, BoE MPC Vote outcome, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. building permits, housing starts and FOMC minutes.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 21: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Nov 2014 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr went through a roller coaster session on Thursday as despite an initial rally to a fresh 7-year peak at 118.98 shortly European open, selling interest located below 119.00 level knocked price lower ahead of NY open.
The greenback eventually fell to 117.74 in NY morning after release of worse-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and soft inflation data before rebounding to 118.32 due to upbeat U.S. existing home sales figures.
Dlr briefly climbed to 118.37 in Friday Tokyo morning and then tumbled to 117.45 on risk aversion due to intra-day fall in Nikkei (currently down 0.9% to 17144) and comments from Japan FinMin Aso (see our prev. MMN).

Although dlr's intra-day sell off below 117.74 support signals further choppy trading below yesterday's top at 118.98 would continue and selling on recovery is recommended, price may find support near 117.00 level as growing divergence of economic and monetary policy developments between the U.S. and Japan should continue to provide support to the pair.

Bids are noted 117.40-30 n then 117.10-00 with mixture of bids and stops emerging just below 117.00.
On the upside, offers from various accounts are placed at 117.90/00, 118.20-30 and more near 118.50 level.

Friday will release U.K. PSNCR and Canada CPI.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 25: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Nov 2014 01:37GMT

USD/JPY - 118.06... Despite dlr's brief rise above NY res at 118.48 to 118.57 ahead of Asian open at the beginning of release of BoJ meeting minutes, price retreated subsequently as the minutes showed 4 out of the 9 BoJ board members were opposed to conducting additional easy policy because they worried about side-effects after expanding an aggressive easing program.
Dlr's intra-day fall accelerated after comments from BoJ's Governor Kuroda and then tanked to 117.80 before recovering.

Although broad-day buying of yen in Tokyo morning suggests selling dlr/yen pair on recovery is recommended, investors can look to book profit on next intra-day fall as last Friday's bottom at 117.36 (reaction low from 119.98 top) is expected to hold ahead of the speech from BOJ deputy governor Nakaso at 04:00GMT, followed by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda press conference at 04:45GMT.

Offers from various accounts are noted at 118.15/20 and then 118.30-40 with mixture of offers and stops located at 118.55-65.
On the downside, bids are placed at 117.70/65, 117.55/50 with stops emerging just below 117.30.

Tuesday will see the release of Japan's BoJ meeting minutes, New Zealand's RBNZ inflation expectation, German GDP, U.S. prelimary GDP, PCE prices and Redbook, Canada's retail sales and U.S. monthly home price and consumer confidence.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 26: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Nov 2014 02:00GMT

USD/JPY -....... Dlr weakened vs the Japanese yen on Tuesday after volatile sessions. Although price has rebounded after early sell off from 118.57 to 117.70 in Asia due to BoJ meeting minutes n comments from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who voiced concerns over the impact of the weaker yen on the economy, price briefly jumped to 118.30 in NY morning after upbeat U.S. Q3 GDP (prelim.).
Later, dlr retreated to 117.72 in NY afternoon following the release of disappointing U.S. consumer confidence and then further to 117.67 in Wednesday's Tokyo morning.

Although intra-day's weakness in Asia suggests choppy trading with mild downside bias remains, sharp fall below 117.36 (Fri's reaction low from last Thursday's fresh 7-year peak at 118.98) is not envisaged as investors are awaiting the release of a slew of U.S. economic reports in NY morning.

At present, offers are noted at 118.00-10 and then 118.25/30 with mixture of offers and stops emerging just above 118.60.
On the downside, bids are placed at 117.40-30 and around 117.10 with stops located just below 117.00.


Wednesday will see the release of German import prices U.S. GDP and CBI distributive trades, U.S. core PCE, durables, personal income, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, new home sales, pending homes sales change and building permits.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 28: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Nov 2014 02:41GMT

USD/JPY - ....... The greenback jumped above 118.00 level to 118.28 against the yen in Tokyo morning on Friday in reaction to rebound in the Nikkei after plunge in oil prices Thur when OPEC kept oil output unchanged (WTI crude oil price was last seen down $5.09 or 6.91% to $68.60, below $70.0 the first time since May 2010) which would benefit the Japanese economy as importer of energy.

As dlr's strong rebound from yesterday's low at 117.24 n the subsequent move back above 118.00 suggest correction from last Thursday's 7-year peak at 118.98 has ended there, buying dlr on dips is favoured as dlr may head towards 118.98 next week.

At present, bids are noted at 118.00-117.90 and around 117.70 with mixture of bids and stops located just below 117.50.
On the upside, offers are placed at 118.30-40 and then 118.50 with stops emerging further out 118.70.

Yesterday despite early brief dropped to an intra-day low of 117.25 in European morning due to the weakness in Nikkei-225 index which closed down by 135 points to 17249, The pair ratcheted higher on active short-covering anf rebounded to 117.79.

Friday will see the release of Japan's unemployment rate, CPI, prelimary industrial output, IP forecast, retails sales, New Zealand's NBNZ business outlook U.S. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan's construction orders, housing starts, Swiss KOF indicator, EU inflation and unemployment rate, Canada's GDP and producer prices.