AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

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AceTraderFx Oct 14: Intra-Day News and Views AUD/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Oct 2016 01:30GMT

AUD/USD - ...... Reuters just reported Australia's financial system is resilient to possible shocks though rising risks in the apartment and resource sectors bear close watching, the country's central bank said on Friday.

In a 52-page semi-annual report on the health of the banking sector, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) highlighted pockets of domestic and foreign dangers.
Rising debt in China was a key concern, it said, since a rash of defaults could cause economic disruption in Australia's single biggest export market.

Domestically, booming supply of new apartments in some inner-cities has raised the risk of a marked oversupply. If apartment market conditions were to deteriorate, banks could face material losses, the RBA warned.

Australia has successfully used historically low borrowing costs to spark a boom in home building that has helped shepherd the economy through the dog days of a global mining downturn.
But concerns about a borrowing-fuelled bubble in home prices was one of the reasons why the country's central bank left interest rates at 1.5 percent this month.

It added that risks to financial stability from lending to households have lessened over the past six months as lending standards improved and the pace of credit growth slowed.

Banks have also taken steps to rein in risks including restrictions on lending to borrowers relying on foreign income and tightening lending conditions for new property developments.
The RBA pointed to risks in New Zealand given Australian banks have their largest international exposures there.

However, stronger capital and liquidity positions have bolstered the resilience of Australian banks, the RBA said, adding that a range of policies that are being finalised by regulators will further strengthen their position.
Australian banks have raised A$20 billion in capital since last year to boost their finances and have reduced focus on low-returning activities such as institutional lending.

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AceTraderFx Oct 17: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Oct 2016 01:13GMT

GBP/USD - ...... A piece of Brexit news which came on yesterday worth noting. Reuters reported British lawmakers from across the political spectrum will press their bid to force Prime Minister Theresa May to give parliament a vote on her negotiating strategy for leaving the European Union, saying she had no mandate for a "hard Brexit".

As Britain embarks on some of its most complex diplomatic negotiations since World War Two, Nick Clegg, former deputy prime minister, said May's plan to invoke Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty by the end of March - triggering the formal Brexit procedure - would hand power to the other 27 EU members.
Lawmakers from the ruling Conservative Party, opposition Labour Party and Clegg's Liberal Democrats said they accepted Britain had voted to leave, but have called for a debate and vote in parliament to try to influence the terms of the divorce.
Clegg said he backed a "soft Brexit" in which Britain stays in or close to the EU's lucrative single market, and urged May to try to "square the circle" over whether Britain will have to sacrifice full participation in the single market to restore control over immigration.
May has said she will deliver Britain's vote in the referendum to reduce the numbers of EU migrants arriving in the country and restore British sovereignty, but she has also been careful to say she wants the "best deal" for business.

Uncertainty over what kind of deal Britain will pursue has unsettled investors and markets.
The British currency is particularly sensitive to any suggestion that the country might be heading towards a "hard Brexit", or a clean break from the EU's single market of 500 million consumers.

Priti Patel, the minister for international development who campaigned to leave the EU, said parliament already had the opportunity to debate and discuss Britain's divorce from the EU.

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AceTraderFx Oct 17: Daily Recommendations on Major EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 17 Oct 2016 05:20 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0971
Euro's resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 10-week trough of 1.0970 near Friday's New York close, then to 1.0964 in Asia today suggests price would remain under pressure and head to key daily sup at 1.0912 (June's low) after consolidation, oversold condition is likely to prevent steep fall today and reckon 1.0880/85 would contain weakness.

Expect 1.1025/30 to hold and yield aforesaid decline and only above 1.1060 (Friday's high in Australia) would dampen present bearish scenario on the euro.

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AceTraderFx Oct 18: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Oct 2016 03:13GMT

USD/JPY - The greenback fell ahead of Tokyo open, price briefly penetrated New York low at 103.80 and staged a minor recovery, however, broad-based usd's weakness in early Asian trading quickly knocked price to intra-day low of 103.68 before rebounding on cross-selling in yen.

The pair came under selling pressure in early New York trading on Mon after downbeat U.S. New York Fed mfg index, price later hit session lows of 103.80 on dovish comments by Fed Vice Chair Fischer (see earlier update).

Although intra-day usd's broad-based weakness in Asia suggests downside bias remains, daily outlook remains consolidative and range trading inside recent range is expected ahead of release of U.S. inflation data at 12:30GMT where Sep m/m CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% vs previous reading of 0.2%, if the actual data comes in higher than forecast, then dlr would be supported.

Offers are tipped at 103.95/00 and more above with stops above 104.50.
Initial bids are noted at 103.65-55 with stops below 103.30

 

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AceTraderFx Oct 18: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Oct 2016 03:13GMT

USD/JPY - The greenback fell ahead of Tokyo open, price briefly penetrated New York low at 103.80 and staged a minor recovery, however, broad-based usd's weakness in early Asian trading quickly knocked price to intra-day low of 103.68 before rebounding on cross-selling in yen.

The pair came under selling pressure in early New York trading on Mon after downbeat U.S. New York Fed mfg index, price later hit session lows of 103.80 on dovish comments by Fed Vice Chair Fischer (see earlier update).

Although intra-day usd's broad-based weakness in Asia suggests downside bias remains, daily outlook remains consolidative and range trading inside recent range is expected ahead of release of U.S. inflation data at 12:30GMT where Sep m/m CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% vs previous reading of 0.2%, if the actual data comes in higher than forecast, then dlr would be supported.

Offers are tipped at 103.95/00 and more above with stops above 104.50.
Initial bids are noted at 103.65-55 with stops below 103.30

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AceTraderFx Oct 20: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Oct 201602:39GMT

USD/JPY - 103.51.. Despite yesterday's resumption of decline to a 1-week low of 113.17 in New York morning on broad-based yen-buying, price rebounded to 103.50 on short covering near New York close and intra-day strong performance in the Nikkie (N225 rose to a near 5-mth high of 17195 n currently at 17169) together with hawkish comments by New York Fed President William Dudley boosted risk sentiment, dlr climbed to 103.67 after tripping stops above 103.50, suggesting low has been made and consolidation with upside bias is in store.

Data to be released on Thursday:

Australia employment change, participation rate, unemployment rate, business confidence, Germany producer prices, Swiss imports, exports, trade balance, Eurozone current account, refinancing rate, deposit rate, U.K. retail sales, U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, existing home sales and leading index change.

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AceTraderFx Oct 24: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Oct 201603:23GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The greenback moved narrowly in quiet Asian trading on Monday, however, price has generally maintained a firm undertone followed renewed usd's strength on Friday.
Despite Friday's intra-day decline from 104.20 to 113.52 (New York), renewed usd's strength lifted price to 104.00 and current firmness suggest consolidation with upside bias remains.

Bids are noted at 103.75-65 and more below with stops below 103.50, bigger stops are touted below 113.10.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 104.00/20 area with stops abv there, suggesting buying dlr on dips is recommended.

Later in the day, U.S. will release national activity index at 12:30GMT and then the important Markit Oct flash manufacturing index at 13:45GMT, street forecast is looking for a reading to come in at 51.6 vs previous figure of 51.5. Last but not least, pay attention to speeches by Fed's James Bullard and Fed's Charles Evans at 13:05GMT and 17:30GMT respectively.

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AceTraderFx Oct 25: Intra-Day News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Oct 201602:31GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Although the single currency gained respite in choppy Monday's trading after meeting renewed buying at Asian open one tick above last Friday's 7-month low at 1.0859 and rebounded, price hit session highs of 1.0900 following upbeat German n EU mfg PMIs.
However, renewed selling emerged pushed price lower, euro retreated to 1.0869 in New York after upbeat U.S. mfg PMI and then to 1.0868 at Asian open, suggesting intra-day downside bias remains for a re-test of 1.0859, then later towards daily chart obj. at 1.0821.

Offers are tipped at 1.0890/00 and more above with stops above 1.0920.
A mixture of bids and stops is touted near 1.0860, suggesting selling euro on recovery is recommended.

Although there is release of a slew of EZ data, market focus is the key German Ifo business climate (confidence) index, October forecast is 103.0 vs previous reading of 103.0.
If actual reading comes in at or below street forecast, then euro should come under renewed selling pressure.

Later today, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at a forum on the topic "Stability, Equity and Monetary Policy" in Berlin at 15:30 GMT.

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AceTraderFx Oct 26: Intra-Day News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Oct 2016 01:04GMT

EUR/USD - .... Reuters reported earlier the European Central Bank is aware of the growing costs to the financial sector of its ultra-loose monetary policy and would rather not have to keep negative interest rates for too long, ECB President Mario Draghi said on New York session.

Speaking in Berlin, Draghi defended the ECB's policy of aggressive bond buying and ultra-low rates from accusations that it has led to growing inequality and a shift of financial income from stronger to weaker economies.
But he also acknowledged complaints by banks, particularly in Germany, that low rates are eating into their profits.
The ECB is studying options to ensure its 80 billion euros a month ($87.06 billion) money printing programme can run at least until March as eligible assets to buy in Germany run scarce.

Draghi's comments were likely to further lengthen the odds on another cut in the ECB's deposit rate of -0.40 percent, effectively a charge banks have to pay for parking money overnight with the central bank and that record-low interest rates in the euro zone are not a 'new normal', although the single currency area will remain vulnerable without a full monetary and banking union.
He also tackled a common German criticism that the ECB's low rates were hurting small savers.
Draghi said the ECB was aware that low interest rates and plenty of liquidity could be a recipe for financial stability risks but saw no such risks at the moment.

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AceTraderFx Oct 27: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Oct 2016 02:05GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dollar swung wildly in volatile trading in Thursday's Asian trading. Despite extending o/n gain made in New York session to 104.70 at Tokyo open, renewed broad-based buying in yen (some touted dlr selling by Japanese exporters) capped intra-day rise and mildly hawkish comments by BoJ official Iwata and then his boss Kuroda led to more yen-buying, knocking the pair to intra-day low of 104.38, suggesting further choppy consolidation below Tuesday's near 3-month peak at 104.87 would continue with downside bias.

Offers are tipped at 104.60/70 and more above with stops reported above 105.00.
Initial bids are noted at 104.30-20 and more below with stops building up below 104.00 level, so selling the greenback of recovery is favoured.

Pay attention to a slew of U.S. data starting with weekly initial jobless claims, durable goods order, pending home sales and Kansas City Fed mfg index, the buck is expected to react to these data, so be nimble and be quick when they are released.

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