AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

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AceTraderFx Oct 28: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Oct 2016 00:03GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Reuters reported earlier British consumers turned less optimistic this month as sterling's slump began to eat into their disposable income, according to two surveys on Friday which will raise concerns about the strength of future spending growth.

Britain's economy has performed better than most forecasts since June's referendum decision to leave the European Union, in large part thanks to strong consumer spending.
But finance minister Philip Hammond said it did not mean the economy would dodge a slowdown next year.

Market research firm GfK said sentiment fell for the first time since the immediate shock of the Brexit vote. Its consumer confidence index dropped to -3 in October from -1 in September.
A similar survey by polling firm YouGov showed the weakest confidence since July and the view of households of their finances showed the biggest deterioration since December 2014.

Sterling has lost almost 20 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar since the referendum. British inflation rose to 1 percent in the year to September and could hit 3 percent by the end of next year, many economists say.

Separate figures from supermarket chain Asda showed that households' disposable income - after tax, housing, food and other bills - rose by the smallest amount in almost two years.
Prices for essentials rose by the largest amount since November 2014, and the cost of imports was likely to increase further due to the weak pound, Asda said.

But a robust job market and relatively low inflation should help spending in the immediate future and GfK noted households were more willing to make major purchases than a year ago.
The GfK survey of 2,001 people was conducted between Oct. 1 and Oct. 15, on behalf of the European Commission. YouGov's polling was done in the first three weeks of October.

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AceTraderFx Oct 31 : Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Oct 201600:11GMT

GBP/USD - ..... The pound also swung wildly in New Zealand on Monday, cable opened lower and fell to session lows of 1.2147 on o/n report BoE Governor Mark Carney is likely to leave in 2018 according to media report but price rallied in Australia on active short-covering when the FT reported Carney is ready to serve his full term.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is ready to serve a full eight-year term, despite critics campaigning for him to resign ahead of time, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

Carney, who accepted the post in 2012, is said to be leaning towards staying on and helping to steer the UK economy after the government triggers Article 50 of the European Union's Lisbon Treaty in March 2017, the FT said. This starts the formal negotiation process, lasting up to two years, until Britain's departure from the bloc.

PM Theresa May and Finance Minister Philip Hammond were confident until recently that Carney would stay until 2021 rather than stepping down in 2018, according to the FT.
British media reported at the weekend that Carney was unlikely to take up the option of a three-year extension to his term at the central bank, and may announce his decision as early as Thursday.
The Sunday Times reported that Carney was unhappy with May's office and had a closer relationship with Hammond's predecessor, George Osborne, who had recruited him.

The governor is expected to confer with May and Hammond before making a decision, the FT reported.
Carney has said publicly that he will decide before the end of the year whether to stay beyond the five-year term he committed to when he joined the BoE in July 2013. He is due to hold a quarterly news conference on Thursday.
Last week, Carney said his decision whether to stay would be based on personal rather than political considerations, and he would need to find some time to make up his mind.

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AceTraderFx Nov 1: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Nov 2016 02:23GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr swung wildly in Mon's trading. Although price initially fell to 104.28 in New Zealand on Monday, cross-selling in yen quickly lifted the pair to 104.94 and the pair ratcheted higher in Europe to 105.08 on broad-based usd's strength, then climbing to session high of 105.23 ahead of New York midday after shrugging off downbeat U.S. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed mfg index.
however, intra-day rally in cable and eur/usd triggered broad-based usd's retreat and pushed price back down to 104.79 near New York close, dlr edged lower to 104.67 shortly after Tokyo open on Tuesday.

Despite yesterday's strong bounce to 105.23, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading below last Friday's 3-month peak at 105.53 would continue and range trading is seen ahead of BoJ's rate decision and then BoJ Gov. Kuroda's press conference at 06:30GMT.

Until then, offers are tipped at 105.00/10 and more above with stops above 105.30, more stops are touted above 105.55.
Initial bids are noted at 104.70-60 and more below with stops below 104.20, more stops have been reported below 104.00.

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AceTraderFx Nov 2: Intra-Day News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Nov 201602:04GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro stands tall in subdued Asian trading on Wednesday after rallying above last week's 1.0992 high to a near 3-week peak of 1.1069.
Intra-day rise began shortly after European open on broad-based euro buying, this move resulted in general usd's weakness, upmove accelerated above 1.1000/05 res area was firmly breached, price climbed to 1.1034 and later hit session highs of 1.1069 in New York afternoon as U.S. stocks fell sharply before recovering towards the close.

Yesterday's daily close above 1.1040 res bodes well for euro to make further gains in coming days, at least until release of key U.S. jobs data on Friday, so buying the single currency on pullback is the way to go.
Bids have been raised to 1.1050-40 and more below with stops below 1.1000.
Some stops are noted at 1.1070/75 with selling interest at 1.1090/00 and more stops are touted above 1.1105.

Today is PMI day in the EZ with Italy releasing mfg PMI, folowed by France, then Germany and later EU.

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AceTraderFx Nov 2: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Nov 2016 09:38GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Reuters reported UK's AA1 sovereign rating would be downgraded if the UK's loss of access to the European Single Market following Brexit were to materially weaken medium-term growth and if the credibility of UK fiscal policy were to be undermined, Moody's Investors Service said in a report published today.

While Moody's central view is that the UK's medium-term economic outlook will in any event be weaker than it would otherwise have been, the scale of the impact of Brexit on its growth prospects will depend on the format of the UK's new trading relationship with the EU.

Therefore a key factor in Moody's assessment of the impact of Brexit on the UK's credit profile will be how far any new trade arrangement between the UK and the European Union replicates EU membership, as well as how long it takes to achieve a new settlement.

Moody's current baseline expectation is that the UK will eventually manage to enter into some form of free trade agreement with the EU. One scenario that Moody's considers to be realistic is a series of accords offering access to the EU market for goods and more constrained access for services, in particular financial services. However, such an outcome is far from certain.

He also expects the negotiations to be protracted. The rating agency does not expect to have clarity on the UK's objectives, or on its chances of achieving them, until the negotiations are under way. The government will start the exit process by March 2017 at the latest. Even the withdrawal process might not be finalized within the two-year time frame set by the Lisbon Treaty. But once negotiations start, the agency expects that the spirit in which they are handled by both sides will offer important insights into the likely outcome.

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AceTraderFx Nov 3: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Nov 201601:12GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Cable rallied initially in London trading on upbeat U.K. construction PMI which climbed unexpectedly for the 1st times since May. Sterling is expected to capture centre stage today as it is 'Super Thursday' where BoE will release its rate decision.

Reuters reported today British housebuilders have not scaled back construction plans in the three months since the country voted to leave the European Union, data showed on Thursday, despite central bank forecasts for a sharp slowdown in housing investment.
Registrations of new homes - a preliminary step before building begins - came to 35,953 in the third quarter, unchanged from the same period last year, the National House Building Council said.

The NHBC's figures add to signs from other sectors of the economy that the shock of the June 23 vote to leave the EU has only had a temporary effect on business activity.
The Bank of England said in August that growth in housing investment this year would drop to 1.25 percent from the 4 percent it had forecast before the referendum.
NHBC said 5 percent more houses were built by its members in the three months to September than a year earlier, and a separate survey of purchasing managers in the construction industry on Wednesday showed the fastest growth in seven months.

The third-quarter new home registrations did mark a fall from the second quarter, when 40,734 building plans were registered. But the NHBC figures are not seasonally adjusted, and the third-quarter data often shows a summer lull.
Nonetheless, there are some darker signals. The construction industry data on Wednesday showed slowing order books and soaring costs, while Britain's second-biggest house builder Persimmon PSN.L said it would slow the pace of new land purchases due to Brexit worries.

There were also very sharp regional variations, with housing starts in London - where the financial sector is seen as vulnerable to Brexit - down 45 percent on the year.

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AceTraderFx Nov 3: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Nov 2016 03:16GMT

USD/JPY - 103.08.. Dlr swung broadly sideways in early Asian trading as Japan's financial market re-opened after yesterday's holiday. Although traders reported usd buying by Japanese importers on bargain hunting following yesterday's selloff to a 4-week low of 102.55, price briefly bounced to 103.21 at Tokyo open but quickly retreated to intra-day low of 102.83 as the Nikkie turned lower and hit a 2-1/2 week low of 16801 (currently at 16888).

Despite yesterday's resumption of this week's decline to 102.55, dlr's o/n rebound to 103.31 suggests temp. low has been made and choppy trading above this level is expected as traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data at 12:30GMT.
Market consensus is for Oct payrolls to show a 175K increase in jobs vs prevous reading of 156K, if actual figure is higher, then we may see the greenback to stage at least a brief but sharp rebound vs its peers following this week's surprise steep fall.

Offers are tipped at 103.20/30 with stops above there, however, more selling interest is noted at 103.45/55 with stops reported above 104.00.
Bids are noted at 102.80-70 and more below with stops touted below 102.50.

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AceTraderFx Nov 7: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Nov 2016 02:07GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr gained the most vs the yen at New Zealand open after FBI issued a formal statement to clear Hilary Clinton on their review over her classified email review boosted risk sentiment, price opened around 103.12 and jumped to 104.45 in Australia, then 104.48 ahead of Asian open.
Price has maintained intra-day gain due to broad-based rise in Asian stocks (N225 currently up by 200 points at 17105).

Looks like consolidation with mild upside bias remains but further strong gain is unlikely as Asian traders are awaiting reaction from their European counterparts reaction when they come in later.
Offers are tipped at 104.40/50 with stops above 104.70/75, more stops are touted above 105.00. Initial bids are noted at 103.90-80 with stops below 103.50.

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AceTraderFx Nov 8: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Nov 2016 01:12GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Reuters reported today Britain will only start to lower public debt as a share of GDP at the end of the decade due to a Brexit-related hit to the economy, a think tank said, underscoring finance minister Philip Hammond's challenge as he prepares his first budget statement.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies predicted Britain would run a budget deficit of nearly 15 billion pounds ($18.6 billion)in the 2019/20 financial year, rather than a surplus of 10 billion pounds as forecast in the government's existing budget projections.
That budget overshoot meant debt as a share of gross domestic product would hover around its current, historically high level of 84 percent until 2019/20 when it would start to fall again, the IFS said

Finance minister Philip Hammond is expected to announce a much bleaker outlook for the economy and the public finances on Nov. 23 when he makes the country's first budget statement since the June 23 referendum decision to leave the European Union.
He has already signalled he is likely to loosen the purse strings and adopt budget rules that are more flexible than those of his predecessor George Osborne, who last year missed his target to bring down debt as a share of GDP each year.

Thomas Pope, an IFS research economist, said the think tank's deficit forecast might prove too low because it assumed the government would achieve all the tough spending cuts planned by Osborne and did not factor in promised income tax cuts.
The IFS forecast for public finances in 2019/20 included expenditure savings from the end of British contributions to the EU budget and reduced debt servicing costs due to low yields on British government bonds.

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AceTraderFx Nov 8: Intra-Day News and Views AUD/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Nov 2016 01:00GMT

AUD/USD - ...... Aud's retreats in Asia after hitting a 6-month peak of 0.7778 near New York close Tuesday. Reuters just reported A measure of Australia's consumer sentiment slipped in November after three straight months of gains ahead of the U.S. election and as households became less confident of the property market and their own finances, its compilers said on Wednesday.

The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank survey of 1,200 people found consumer sentiment faltered 1.1 percent in November, from October when it rose by a similar quantum.

That left the index at 101.3, with optimists still outnumbering pessimists.
Data to be released on Wednesday:

New Zealand electronic card retail sales, Australia consumer sentiment, Japan current account, trade balance, Eco Watchers Survey, China PPI, CPI, U.K. trade balance, U.S. mortgage applications, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

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