AceTraderFx Jul 22: Weekly / Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD

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DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Last Update At 22 Jul 2014 00:03GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences

21 HR EMA
1.3524

55 HR EMA
1.3527

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences

13 HR RSI
48

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal fall

Resistance
1.3650 - Last Thur's high
1.3589 - Last Thur's low
1.3549 - Y'day's high

Support
1.3492 - Last Fri's 5-month low
1.3477 - 2014 low (Feb 03)
1.3454 - 50% proj. of 1.3995 to 1.3503 fm 1.3700


. EUR/USD - 1.3523... Euro extended recovery fm last Fri's fresh 5-month trough of 1.3491 to 1.3549 on Mon after triggering stops abv 1.3540 in Asia, how ever, offers at 1.3550/60 capped intra-day gain n selling emerged at European open due to weakness in European shares n price dropped to 1.3513 in NY morning.

. Looking at the daily chart, despite euro's rebound fm 1.3491 to 1.3549, last week's breach of Jun's low at 1.3503 confirms the MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has once again resumed n weakness to next daily chart obj. at 1.3477 (2014 low) wud be forthcoming soon this week n later twds 1.3454 (this is 50% proj. of 1.3995-1.3503 measured fm 1.3700), however, as the hourly indicators have already displayed 'bullish convergences', reckon 1.3396/99 (61.8% projection of 1.3991.3995-1.3503 n daily sup respectively) wud hold on 1st testing. On the upside, only a daily close abv 1.3589 (prev. sup, now res) wud be the 1st signal temporary low is in place, then stronger correction to 1.3640/50 wud be seen but res at 1.3700 shud remain intact.

. Today, we're holding a short position in anticipation of marginal fall with stop now abv 1.3549 res, break may risk retracement twd 1.3589.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 6: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD

DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Last Update At 06 Aug 2014 00:12GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
1.3383

55 HR EMA
1.3397

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI
33

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Resumption of MT downtrend

Resistance
1.3485 - Jul 24 high
1.3445 - Last Fri's high
1.3425 - Y'day's high

Support
1.3358 - Y'day's low
1.3332 - 61.8% proj. of 1.3549-1.3366 fm 1.3445
1.3295 - Nov 2013 low


. EUR/USD - 1.3372 ... Despite staging a brief bounce to 1.3425 at European open on Tue, the single currency came under renewed selling pressure after the release of weaker-than-expected Italy's Markit services PMI. Euro later tumbled to a near 9-mth low at 1.3359 on upbeat U.S. data n renewed tension in Ukraine.

. Looking at the bigger picture, euro's breach of last Wed's 8-1/2 month trough of 1.3366 confirms MT decline fm 2014 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 (May) has once again resumed n further weakness to 1.3332 (being 61.8% projection of 1.3549-1.3366 measured fm 1.3445) wud be forthcoming soon, below wud extend weakness twd 1.3295 (Nov 2013 low) later. On the upside, only a break of 1.3445 (reaction high after last Fri's U.S. jobs report) wud violate recent series of lower highs n lower low fm 1.3995 n signal a temporary low is finally in place n may bring stronger retracement to 1.3485 n 1.3503 (Jun's bottom).

. Today, in view current bearish analysis, selling euro on recovery in anticipation of further weakness is the way to go, however, low readings on the hourly oscillators shud prevent steep fall fm there n reckon previous daily sup at 1.3295 shud hold on 1st testing n yield rebound later.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 13: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD

DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 12 Aug 2014 23:59GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
1.3366

55 HR EMA
1.3373

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Turning up

13 HR RSI
49

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation b4 one more fall

Resistance
1.3445 - Aug 01 high
1.3433 - Last Fri's high
1.3408 - Last Fri's European high

Support
1.3333 - Last Wed's fresh near 9-month low
1.3269 - 61.8% proj. of 1.3650-1.3366 fm 1.3445
1.3223 - 61.8% r of 1.2745-1.3995


. EUR/USD - 1.3366 ... Euro ratcheted lower y'day after last Fri's short-covering rally to 1.3433. Price tanked to an intra-day low at 1.3337 in European midday after weak ZEW economic sentiment b4 staging a recovery to 1.3370 in NY.

. Y'day's fall to 1.3337 strongly suggests the correction fm last Wed's near 9-month trough of 1.3333 has ended at 1.3433 last Fri n as long as 1.3408 holds, downside bias remains for MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to resume after choppy consolidation, n below 1.3333/37 sup area wud confirm, yield further weakness twds next daily chart obj. at 1.3295 (Nov 2013 low), however, as hourly oscillators wud display bullish convergences on next decline, suggesting steep fall below said daily sup is unlikely n reckon 1.3269 (61.8% proj. of 1.3650-1.3366 measured fm 1.3445) wud hold n yield a much-needed correction later. On the upside, only a breach of 1.3433 wud bring stronger retracement of the intermediate fall fm 1.3650 to 1.3454 but 1.3485/91 (prev. daily res n 50% r respectively) shud cap upside.

. Today, we're cautiously selling euro on intra-day recovery in anticipation of such marginal fall. Abv 1.3408 risks 1.3433, break, 1.3445/50.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 19: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY

DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 19 Aug 2014 00:02GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
1.3371

55 HR EMA
1.3376

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
37

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
1.3485 - July 24 high
1.3433 - Aug 08 high
1.3412 - Last Fri's high

Support
1.3348 - Last Thur's low
1.3333 - Last Wed's fresh near 9-month low
1.3295 - Nov 07 2013 low


. EUR/USD - 1.3360 ... The single currency met renewed selling below 1.3400 level on Monday n later fell to 1.3353 in NY morning due to usd's strength on gain in U.S. homebuilder confidence, however, euro moved narrowly in NY afternoon on lack of follow-through selling.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, we've taken the view euro's choppy price action fm Aug's near 9-month trough of 1.3333 is possibly unfolding into a 'bearish triangle' pattern (with a-leg top at 1.3433, b-leg trough at 1.3336 n c-leg top at 1.3416, d-leg trough at 1.3348 n e-leg top has 'possibly' ended at 1.3412 Fri), if this view is correct, then MT fall fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 shud resume later this week n bring weakness to next daily chart object. at 1.3295 n later 1.3237 (61.8% proj. of the intermediate fall fm 1.3650-1.3333 measured fm 1.3433). On the upside, only a breach of 1.3433 wud signal an upside break of 1.3333-1.3433 range has taken place instead, then risk wud shift to upside for a stronger correction twd 1.3491 (50% r of 1.3650-1.3333).

. Today, we're holding early short position for weakness twd 1.3348 1st but 1.3333 wud remain intact. Only abv 1.3433 risks gain to 1.3475 b4 down.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD

DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 29 Aug 2014 00:29GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
1.3185

55 HR EMA
1.3190

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences

13 HR RSI
49

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal fall

Resistance
1.3297 - Last Fri's high
1.3242 - Last Thur's low (now res)
1.3221 - Y'day's high

Support
1.3152 - Wed's fresh near 1-year low
1.3105 - Sep 06 low
1.3066 - 100% proj. of 1.3700-1.3333 fm 1.3433


. EUR/USD - 1.3185 ... Although euro ratcheted higher to 1.3221 on short-covering at European open on Thur, renewed selling emerged after data showed EZ economic sentiment dropped in Aug n price retreated to 1.3199. Euro tumbled to 1.3160 due to renewed tensions in Ukraine n upbeat U.S. GDP b4 recovering.

. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, y'day's strg retreat fm 1.3221 suggests correction fm Wed's near 1-year low at 1.3152 has ended there n as long as 1.3221 holds, the MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to retrace the entire MT rise fm 2012 bottom at 1.2042 shud resume after consolidation, below said sup wud extend marginally to 1.3131 (being 61.8% r proj. of 1.3296-1.3152 measured fm 1.3220), however, as hourly indicators have already displayed prominent 'bullish convergences', reckon daily sup at 1.3105 wud hold on 1st testing n bring a much-needed correction. A daily close abv 1.3221 wud signal temp. low is made, then euro wud head twd 1.3280/90 next week b4 prospect of another fall.

. Today, we're holding short in anticipation of one more decline n profit shud be taken on such a move as volatility may increase on month-end position adjustmet. Pay attention to the closely watched eurozone inflation at 09:00GMT !

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD

DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 18 Sep 2014 00:35GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Rising fm o/s

21 HR EMA
1.2910

55 HR EMA
1.2935

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI
28

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Resumption of MT downtrend

Resistance
1.2943 - Y'day's Euroepan morning low
1.2909 - Last Fri's n Mon's low
1.2860 - Last Tue's low (now res)

Support
1.2835 - Intra-day low (Australia)
1.2772 - 61.8% proj. of 1.3221-1.2860 fm 1.2995
1.2745 - Apr 2013 low


. EUR/USD - 1.2858... Despite euro's brief bounce fm 1.2943 to 1.2981 in NY morning after the release of lower-than-expected US CPI data, the single currency nose-dived to 1.2898 after the release of dovish Fed's policy statement n price later weakened to a fresh 14-month trough of 1.2835 in Australia.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's of last Tue's 1.2860 low to 1.2835 confirms MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to retrace entire LT rise fm 2012 bottom at 1.2042 (Jul) has once again resumed n further weakness to 1.2790/95 is now envisaged after minor consolidation, however, as the hourly oscillators' readings are in oversold territory, reckon 1.2788, being 61.8% proj. of intermediate fall fm 1.3221-1.2860 measured fm 1.2995 wud limit downside n yield a much-needed rebound later. Looking ahead, euro is poised to re-test of previous daily sup at 1.2745 (Apr 2013) later this month n only abv 1.2909 signals at temp. low is made n may risk stronger retrace. twd 1.2985/95.

. Today, in view of abv bearish analysis, selling euro on intra-day recovery is the way to go as 1.2880/90 shud cap upside, however, profit shud be taken on subsequent decline.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Nov 21: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD

DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 21 Nov 2014 00:18GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences

21 HR EMA
1.2541

55 HR EMA
1.2533

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI
55

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Chopy sideways trading to continue

Resistance
1.2685 - 61.8% r fm 1.2788-1.2357
1.2602 - Wed's NY high
1.2575 - Y'day's high

Support
1.2505 - Y'day's low
1.2480 - 50% r of 1.2357-1.2602
1.2444 - Tue's low

. EUR/USD - 1.2547... The single currency continued to whip around in intra-day trade on Thur. Despite staging a brief bounce fm 1.2524 to 1.2575, euro briefly dived to 1.2505 after release of downbeat German & EZ PMIs, however, the pair rebounded again to 1.2769 in New York morning b4 moving sideways.

. Looking at the hourly chart n daily charts, despite Wed's brief breach of Mon's high of 1.2578 to 1.2602, subsequent retreat to 1.2505 suggests the early 3-legged corrective upmove fm Nov's 26-month trough at 1.2357 has 'possibly' formed a temporary top there n few days of choppy consolidation is in store, how ever, below 1.2501/05 sup (Tue's NY low n y'day's low respectively) is needed to confirm n yield stronger pullback to 1.2444/51 (being Tue's low n 61.8% r of 1.2357-1.2602). Looking ahead, only breach of pivotal sup at 1.2399 wud indicate MT decline fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has once again resumed n bring retest of 1.2357 low next week. Abv 1.2602 wud send euro to 1.2622 n later 1.2685, being 50% n 61.8% r respectively of intermediate fall fm 1.2888-1.2357.

. Today, we are standing ahead initially n may give a buy recommendation if price holds abv 1.2505 for a move to 1.2622.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Nov 28: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD

DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 28 Nov 2014 00:14GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences

21 HR EMA
1.2475

55 HR EMA
1.2477

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
33

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
1.2575 - Last Fri's high
1.2532 - Wed's high
1.2499 - Y'day's N. American high

Support
1.2444 - Wed's low
1.2402 - Tue's low
1.2357 - Nov 07 26-month low

. EUR/USD - 1.2456 ... Despite euro's brief bounce to 1.2524 in European morning on Thur, offers below Wed's 1.2532 checked intra-day gain n traders sold euro broadly after weak Spanish inflation data. Euro later ratcheted higher back to 1.2499 in quiet N. American session on short covering b4 coming off.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, although Wed's brief rally to 1.2532 suggests the decline fm last Wed's high at 1.2602 has indeed formed a low at 1.2360 on Mon n further 'choppy' consolidation abv Nov's 26-month trough at 1.2357 wud continue, y'day's retreat suggests downside bias remains, below 1.2444 sup wud bring subsequent decline twd 1.2402, a daily close below this pivotal sup is needed to confirm the recovery is over n yield resumption of MT downtrend for re-test 1.2357/60, then 1.2311 next week. On the upside, only abv 1.2532 wud extend aforesaid rise twd 1.2568/75 res area, however, as broad outlook remains 'consolidative', daily res at 1.2602 shud cap upside n yield decline later.

. Today, euro's intra-day break of y'day's 1.2466 low suggests the single currency shud remain under pressure n decline to our daily downside target at 1.2415 (our daily position is holding short at 1.2490).

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Dec 5aily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD

DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 05 Dec 2014 00:14GMT

Trend Daily Chart
1.2364

Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences

21 HR EMA
Down

55 HR EMA
1.2364

Trend Hourly Chart
58

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
Sideways

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Choppy consoldiation iwth a neutral bias

Resistance
1.2532 - Last Wed's high
1.2507 - Mon's high
1.2457 - Y'day's high

Support
1.2340 - Hourly chart
1.2280 - Y'day fresh 27-month low
1.2242 - 2012 Aug 10 low

. EUR/USD - 1.23845... Euro rallied sharply against the usd on Thur as ECB refrained fm adding stimulus measures. Although price briefly fell to a fresh 27-month low at 1.2280 at the start of ECB's press conference, euro jumped to 1.2414 n then rose to 1.2457 on short-covering b4 retreating to 1.2360.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rally fm a fresh 27-month trough to as high as 1.2457 in choppy NY session suggests MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has formed a temporary low there n despite subsequent retreat, as long as 1.2325 (Thur's European morning high, now sup) holds, consolidation with upside bias remains, a daily close abv 1.2457 wud add credence to this view, then euro bring another leg of correction twd 1.2525/32(50% r of 1.2771-1.2280 n Nov 26 high respectively), however, as hourly technical indicators' readings wud be in o/bot territory on such move, a strg retreat is likely to take place next week.

. Today, in view of abv analysis, we're trading euro on both sides of the market initially as choppy sideways move is expected ahead of the key monthly U.S. jobs data. Only below 1.2280 wud risk one more fall to 1.2245/55.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Market Outlook on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK (EUR/USD)
17 Dec 2014 04:37 GMT

EUR/USD : The single currency rallied on Tuesday due to the release of as upbeat German and eurozone economic data.
Price ratcheted higher from Australian low at 1.2434 to a fresh near 1-month peak at 1.2570 before retreating to 1.2478 in NY on renewed broad-based strength in dollar.
Aforesaid upmove confirms erratic up move from last Monday's 27-month trough at 1.2247 to retrace medium-term downtrend has resumed and further gain to 1.2607 resistance is likely before prospect of a strong retreat later.

On the downside, only a breach of 1.2415 support would confirm the corrective upmove has ended instead and yield weakness to 1.2370.