AcetraderFx May 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

EUR/USD - .... Fundamentally, yesterday's downbeat German ZEW investor confidence does not bode well for Germany & the euro. WSJ reported the German economy is struggling. And, worryingly, that might not just be down to Russia. Tue's ZEW survey of analyst n investor expectations, fell for the 8th month running in Aug. What's more, the figure failed even to meet forecasters' modest expectations.

Although pundits have been quick to ascribe the weakness to Russia's conflict with Ukraine n subsequent western sanctions on Russia. On the other hand, maybe the survey's softness shouldn't be a surprise. German industry has been misfiring during recent months. Factory orders slumped 3.2% on the month in Jun. May's ind. production data posted their biggest drop in 2 years n only registered a modest rebound in Jun, well short of expectations.

Russian trade made up a mere 3.8% of total German trade in 2013. There are signs the euro zone's recovery might be running out of steam. Italy, the single currency's 3rd biggest economy, slipped into yet another recession during the 2nd quarter. France, the 2nd largest economy, is likely to be in recession or on its way.

Germany found an outlet for its exports in the wider global economy during the euro-zone crisis, conditions in the developing economies are also looking tougher. Thur's 2nd quarter German GDP data are likely to show no growth or even a modest contraction, though economists are confident in a rebound during the second half of the year. But that might be a shade optimistic given the squeeze German exporters are facing from all sides.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

17 Aug 2014 22:58GMT

EUR/USD - .... News from Reuters, German Foreign Minister says 'he and Russian, Ukrainian, French foreign ministers agreed to report back to their leaders and then possibly agree Monday or Tuesday how to continue talks; the aim remains to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine.'

On its Friday closing, although euro climbed to an intra-day high of 1.3412 in New York morning after the release of a series of U.S. economic data, including NY Fed manufacturing, PPI, foreign treasury buy, industrial and manufacturing output and University of Michigan sentiment.
Selling interest below there capped euro's upside somewhat. The pair later retreated to 1.3378 in part due to active cross buying in Japanese yen versus the euro after the news.
While EUR/JPY tumbled from 137.62 to 136.77. Offers are now tipped at 1.3400-10 with stops building up above 1.3420.
On the downside, some bids are located at 1.3380-75 and 1.3360-50.


Next week will see the release of U.K. rightmove house prices, China house prices, eurozone eurostat trade and U.S. NAHB housing market index on Monday.

New Zealand’s producer prices, RBA meeting minutes, eurozone current account, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, U.S. building permits, core CPI, housing starts, Redbook and Cleveland Fed CPI on Tuesday.

RBA’s Stevens testimony, Japan’s exports, imports and trade balance, Australia’s Westpac leading economic index, Japan’s all industry index, Germany’s producer prices, BOE’s meeting minutes and CBI trend, Canada’s wholesale trade and U.S. FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

On Thursday, Japan’s manufacturing PMI, China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France’s Markit manufacturing and service flash PMI, Germany’s Markit manufacturing flash PMI, eurozone’s manufacturing and service flash PMI, U.K. PSNCR and retail sales, U.S. jobless claims and Markit manufacturing PMI, eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. Philly Fed business index, and existing home sales on Thursday. The 3-day annual Federal Reserve Bank symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming begins.

Canada’s CPI and retail sales on Friday.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

19 Aug 2014 07:23GMT

EUR/USD - .... News from Reuters, citing source fm the Kremlin, who says 'Russia is working on additional retaliatory measures in case western nations impose new sanctions.'

While the single currency weakened shortly after European open due to renewed broad-based buying in greenback n active cross-selling in euro vs jpy n stg. Price penetrated y'day's NY low at 1.3353 to 1.3343/44.

At present, offers are lowered to 1.3355/60 n then 1.3370-80 with stops emerging abv 1.3400. On the downside, bids are noted at 1.3335/30 n around 1.3320 with stops located just below 1.3300.

Earlier on the Asian opening, the single currency remained under pressure in Asia following yesterday's weakness due to broad-based strength in dlr in NY session after upbeat U.S. homebuilder's confidence. Price dropped fm Aust.'s high of 1.3363 to 1.3354 shortly after Asian open n then hovered near y'day's NY low at 1.3553.

Despite the near 2-week broad sideways move inside 1.3333-1.3433 range, traders are still favouring to sell the euro on intra-day rally due to ongoing expectations that monetary stimulus programs in the U.S. will wind down n the ECB will take steps to loosen policy. Offers are noted at 1.3370-80 n then 1.3400 with mixture of offers n stops located abv 1.3430. Bids fm st specs are reported at 1.3350/45 n below with stop below 1.3330, however, there has been market chatter of option barrier at 1.3300. No major data are due out except the EZ current account data at 08:00GMT.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD


Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views

21 Aug 2014

EUR/USD - .... Germany services n manufacturing PMIs came in better-than-expected at 56.4 n 52.0 vs forecasts of 55.7 n 51.8 respectively.

France manufacturing PMI came in weaker-than-expected at 46.5 vs forecast of 47.8 whilst services PMI came in better-than-expected at 51.1 vs forecast of 50.0.

A piece of news extracted fm Bloomberg worth noting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will provide her take on the latest data on labor markets in a keynote speech on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Yellen has in speeches and congressional testimony focused on reducing slack in labor markets. She measures that with an array of indicators - such as the share of unemployed who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more - not solely on the unemployment rate, which stood at 6.2 percent last month, down from 6.7 percent at the end of 2013.

In her Jackson Hole speech, Yellen could, as the minutes did, stress job-market progress. Or she could continue to point to the slack shown on her dashboard of labor-market data, which show the long-term unemployed, those out of work for 27 weeks or longer, represent 33 percent of the jobless, above the 19 percent average of 2004 to 2007.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD


EUR/USD - .... The fact that euro rose in NY session on Thur despite the release of a slew of upbeat U.S. eco. data shows market is pretty short in the single currency n euro bears are looking to book profit on dips ahead of the main event of the day - the annual economic symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The world's 2 most important central bankers are scheduled to speak later today with Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivering her speech (without Q&A) at 14:00GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak later at 18:30GMT. All in all, 33 central bankers & 9 ECB Governing Council members will attend this event which continues into Sat.

Until then, order flows plus unwinding of position will probably influence intra-day price swings. Offers are reported at 1.3285/95 with some stops building abv 1.3400. On the downside, initial bids are noted at 1.3260-50 and more below with stops below 1.3240, however, more bids are touted at 1.3230-20.

Earlier, news from Reuters in late Thur's NY session worth noting, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser told network CNBC in an interview from a central bank symposium in Jackson hole, Wyoming, that he warned against waiting too long to hike rates.

He said 'concerned that monetary policy not reacting to change in data; Fed is running a risky policy by not moving off zero bound; favors raising rates sooner and more gradually; not wise to make wages the centerpiece of monetary policy; does not think there is a significant under utilization of labor market resources.'

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

25 Aug 2014 01:50GMT

EUR/USD - .... The single currency tumbled to a fresh 11-month bottom of 1.3184 as the greenback opened higher vs its major peers in NZ on Mon, however, selling quickly subsided n price staged a minor recovery to 1.3206 at Asian open.

The fact that price is trading below Fri's 1.3220 low suggests intra-day downside bias remains following a short-covering rebound to 1.3297 in Europe last Fri but bears returned in full force after Fed Chair Yellen's rather balanced speech in Jackson Hole.
Offers are tipped at 1.3220/30 n more abv n initial bias are noted at 1.3185-80, suggesting selling euro is the favoured strategy.
Pay attention to the only EZ data at 08:00GMT, Germany will release Ifo Aug business sentiment index, street forecast is looking for a lower reading of 107.0 vs previous no. at 108.0, this will show German business confidence dropped to a 13-month low, so if actual figure is lower than forecast, euro shud face further downward pressure.

On Friday closing, ECB's president Draghi said: "new ECB lending to banks will be ineffective in helping economy without government structural reforms to promote business;
if inflation drop continues, risks for price stability would increase and governing council would need to use all available tools in reaction;
drop in European inflation due to temporary factors, such as Ukraine, energy prices."


Next week will see the release of Ifo business climate, current conditions and Ifo expectations, U.S. Markit services PMI and new home sales change on Monday.

New Zealand's imports, exports and trade balance, China's leading economic index, U.S. durable goods and consumer confidence on Tuesday.

Germany's Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, France's business climate and Italy's consumer confidence on Wednesday.

Australia's HIA new home sales, building Capex and capital expenditure, Germany's unemployment rate and change, Italy's retail sales, eurozone business climate, consumer confidence and economic and industrial sentiment; U.K. CBI distributive trades; Germany's CPI and HICP, Canada's current account, U.S. PCE, GDP and pending home sales on Thursday.

Japan's unemployment rate, CPI, industrial output and retail sales, New Zealand's business outlook, Australia's housing credit and private sector credit, Japan's housing starts and construction orders, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy's unemployment rate, eurozone inflation and unemployment rate, U.S. PCE, personal consumption and income, Canada's GDP, producer prices and raw material prices, U.S. Chicago PMI, University of Michigan condition and expectations on Friday.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

26 Aug 2014 02:02GMT

EUR/USD - .... For 2 days in a row, Asia bore the brunt of the largest intra-day price swings. Despite meeting renewed selling in thin trading market condition ahead of Asian open on stop hunting, euro easily penetrated yesterday's 1.3183 low to a fresh 11-month trough of 1.3178, however, the single currency quickly pared intra-day loss and rebounded back to 1.3201.

Current usd's broad-based retreat vs G7 currencies in Asian morning suggests euro still has legs to move higher as Fri's CFTC report revealed euro shorts had climbed to its highest in 2 years, therefore, time is ripe for a short-covering rally to take place any time this week.

As no EZ data are due out in European morning, technical trading is expected to dominate near term price movement. Bids are noted at 1.3185-80 whilst some offers are tipped at 1.3210/20 with stops touted above there.

Last night, Ukraine Presidential spokesman said that it will hold a new parliamentary election on October 26.


Tuesday will see the release of New Zealand's imports, exports and trade balance, China's leading economic index, U.S. durable goods and consumer confidence.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

27 Aug 2014 01:55GMT

EUR/USD - .... The single currency continues its recent losing streak and easily penetrated o/n NY low at 1.3164 to a fresh near 1-year trough of 1.3152 after tripping stops below said yesterday low, however, bids above rumoured 1.3150 option barrier contained intra-day weakness.

We may well see a repeat of the price action seen in last 2 days in Asia, that is euro hits intra-day lows at Asian open n then stages a decent recovery into European open b4 coming off later in the day, so chasing present decline is not a good bet. Bids are noted at 1.3150 n more above daily sup at 1.3105, on the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3175/80 n more above would stop (fairly large) touted above 1.3220, suggesting selling the single currency on rally is the way to go.

Eco. data from the EZ today which may move price are Germany Gfk consumer confidence index at 06:00GMT, then French bus. confidence at 06:45GMT and then Italy's consumer confidence at 08:00GMT. No data are due out from the U.S. today.

News from last night, Russia's Utair airline said its MI-8 helicopter was shot down in South Sudan, according to preliminary information.

Three regional Federal Reserve banks, Philadelphia, Kansas city, Dallas Federal Reserve banks renewed requests to raise discount rate by 25 basis points to 1% ahead of July FOMC meeting, according to minutes on Tuesday. U.S. dollar rose broadly against major currencies in late New York.

U.S. welcomes Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire, urges parties to fully and completely comply with its terms and hopes it will be durable.


Wednesday will see the release of Germany's Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, France's business climate and Italy's consumer confidence. Investors are waiting for eurozone inflation data on Friday.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Sept 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

01 Sep 2014 02:22GMT

EUR/USD - .... 2 pieces of euro bearish news on Reuters worth noting which had caused the single currency to open lower in NZ today.

ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure said in an essay published in Greek newspaper Ta Nea on Sat the ECB is ready to adjust its monetary policy further if needed and boost bank liquidity. Coeure said the ECB's measures so far have contributed to stability in the euro zone while its recent decisions have ensured a particularly accommodative direction in monetary policy in the single-currency bloc.

He then said "The ECB will provide additional liquidity to banks on the condition that they increase credit directed to the real economy, n it is ready to further adjust the direction of its monetary policy, if needed."

French PM Manuel Valls reiterated on Sun calls for the ECB to go "further" in tackling the problem of an overvalued euro. Speaking at a Socialist party gathering in La Rochelle, Valls said the ECB's June decision to cut interest rates was a "strong signal" but more was needed.

Euro trades at intra-day fresh near 1-year trough of 1.3122 after opening lower below Fri's 1.3132 low on weekend euro bearish news.
However, selling was not particularly heavy on this Asian Mon morning as markets in U.S. are closed for Labor Day holiday (Canada is also closed too).

Offers are noted at 1.3135/40 n more abv with stops reported abv 1.3200. Some bids are touted at 1.3110-00 with stops below there, suggesting selling euro on recovery is the way to go.

Next week will see the release of New Zealand trade data, Japan's Capex, Australia's inflation gauge, China's NBS manufacturing PMI, Japan's manufacturing PMI, China's final HSBC manufacturing PMI, Germany's detailed GDP, Swiss PMI, German, eurozone and U.K. manufacturing PMI on Monday. U.S. market will be closed for Labor Day holiday.

Australia's building approvals, current account RBA's interest rate decision and policy statement, Swiss GDP, U.K. Markit construction PMI, eurozone producer prices, U.S. construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Tuesday.

U.K. BRC shop price index, China's NBS non-manufacturing PMI, Australia's GDP, China's HSBC services PMI, German and eurozone and U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales, U.S. Redbook, ISM-New York index, Canada's rate decision, U.S. factory orders, durable goods and Fed's Beige book on Wednesday.

Australia's exports, imports, trade balance and retail sales, Germany's industrial orders, Bank of England's rate decision, ECB's rate decision, U.S. ADP employment, ECB's press conference, U.S. initial jobless claims, productivity and international trade, Canada's exports, imports and trade balance, U.S. Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Thursday.

U.K. RICS housing price balance, Bank of Japan monthly economy servery and leading indicator, Germany's industrial output, Swiss CPI and industrial orders, eurozone revised GDP, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls and unemployment rate, Canada's employment change, unemployment rate, and Ivey PMI on Friday.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Sept 17: Intra-Day News & Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

17 Sep 2014

EUR/USD - ...... Although euro remained under pressure in Asia and briefly dipped to 1.2945 at European open, renewed broad-based weakness in dlr lifted price to 1.2957.

Investors are reluctant to add bets before the release of euro zone inflation data at 09:00GMT and range trading below yesterday's high of 1.2995 should continue. Bids are touted at 1.2940-30 and around 1.2920 with stops emerging below 1.2900, whilst offers are placed at 1.2975/80 n then 1.2990-00 with stops noted just above 1.3000.

Earlier, The single currency moved in volatile fashion on Tue. Despite initial retreat fm Asian high at 1.2962 to 1.2923 in European morning, euro bounced to 1.2967 n then climbed to fresh 1-1/2 week peak at 1.2995 in NY as traders cited WSJ webcast saying Fed will stick to near-zero rate language. Later, euro dropped to 1.2950 in Australia n then marginally to 1.2949 shortly after Asian open on renewed broad-based strength in greenback b4 moving sideways.

Today, eurozone will release a slew of inflation data and market expects the readings to pick up last month, however, economists are skeptical about how successful the latest measures fm ECB will be. Until then, range trading is envisaged.

Bids are placed at 1.2940-30 n around 1.2920 with stops emerging below 1.2900, whilst offers are located at 1.2975/80 n then 1.2990-00 with stops noted just above 1.3000.